When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

The arguments over whether should have had this lockdown or not, and the length of the lockdown, will go on forever amen.

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The arguments over whether should have had this lockdown or not, and the length of the lockdown, will go on forever amen.

And the answer will depend on what you lose because of it. Those who lose jobs will argue no, those who lose loved ones will probably argue it should have been locked down sooner. 

[efcfanwirral]

58 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Oh yes from the very beginning I said America would struggle the most. A huge number are one pay cheque away from being on the streets. A huge number work several jobs just to exist. The American dream is really the greatest trick that they have ever pulled to make people think they could have it all when existing in reality at way less than first world levels. The craziest thing is just how bought into their own poverty cycle they are. 

This is it - the insane thing is that if someone came in and made sweeping changes such as UBI or other things that would benefit them specifically, they'd be protesting against that too because it's "socialism" (communism?). They've been completely brainwashed to think that anything other than hard extreme capitalism is the devil, despite having very few holidays or any job security, where getting fired can mean no medical care

Edited April 21, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[gigpusher]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

This is it - the insane thing is that if someone came in and made sweeping changes such as UBI or other things that would benefit them specifically, they'd be protesting against that too because it's "socialism" (communism?). They've been completely brainwashed to think that anything other than hard extreme capitalism is the devil, despite having very few holidays or any job security, where getting fired can mean no medical care

Yes I had to delete an American ex-colleague from Facebook because when he moved back there it seems he got a lobotomy as well. He started slating the NHS even though I know he used it well when he lived here. There lack of social care is frightening. When I went to San Francisco I just couldn't get over how normalised it is to have people with severe mental health problems living on the streets. If it were India or China we'd be talking about their absolute lack of humanity but it seems that America always gets a free pass. The difference between rich and poor is crazy and it is why I fight tooth and nail any attempt to make us more like them. It's a monstrous system that hopefully events like this will expose for what it is - inhuman. 

[DareToDibble]

Haven’t been on this thread in a while so apologies if this has already been discussed... what do we think to the reports yesterday that pubs may be shut until December? My company (A global brewery) seem to have mid-late June in mind for very soft pub reopenings in the UK so I was surprised to read December. 

EDIT: Also praying December is wrong for my own job security! 

Edited April 21, 2020 by DareToDibble

[zahidf]

No one really knows but I think that Sun headline was reaching based on a vague answer from Gove. I think June may be a little early myself, but maybe early july for socially distant pubs?

[Smeble]

2 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

I know, socially responsible idiots! 😛

 

Edit: On a more serious note, if it did become more normal, rates of other, milder respiratory infections would drop. everyone is banging on about the economic cost of COVID, but massive amounts of economic damage is done by mild illnesses every year and we make no effort to mitigate this. 

Is there any evidence that mass wearing of masks in Japan or other Asian country’s actually reduces infection rates? Also what effect does it have on immune systems, is herd immunity affected? 

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

Haven’t been on this thread in a while so apologies if this has already been discussed... what do we think to the reports yesterday that pubs may be shut until December? My company (A global brewery) seem to have mid-late June in mind for very soft pub reopenings in the UK so I was surprised to read December. 

EDIT: Also praying December is wrong for my own job security! 

speculation at best ... it was also published in a paper that is struggling for sales at the moment so headlines that are designed to get extra sales I would expect nothing less from the scum 

[Smeble]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

No one really knows but I think that Sun headline was reaching based on a vague answer from Gove. I think June may be a little early myself, but maybe early july for socially distant pubs?

It’s the Sun, they have papers to sell, bad news sells papers, staggered people pay any attention at all to what the tabloids have to say about anything.

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Is there any evidence that mass wearing of masks in Japan or other Asian country’s actually reduces infection rates? Also what effect does it have on immune systems, is herd immunity affected? 

There's quite a bit floating around, yes.  Sorry I don't have it to hand.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, DareToDibble said:

Haven’t been on this thread in a while so apologies if this has already been discussed... what do we think to the reports yesterday that pubs may be shut until December? My company (A global brewery) seem to have mid-late June in mind for very soft pub reopenings in the UK so I was surprised to read December. 

EDIT: Also praying December is wrong for my own job security! 

I think that was worst case from one of the newspapers. Pubs will probably be one of the last to reopen but they should still do so if they can show they have social distancing of some type in place. For example, tables everywhere with seating meaning people are a suitable distance apart. 

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Is there any evidence that mass wearing of masks in Japan or other Asian country’s actually reduces infection rates? Also what effect does it have on immune systems, is herd immunity affected? 

Yes, there's lots of studies (even half the population wearing them reduces transmission by 50%). Even poorly fitted ones seem to contribute. Old study from the Netherlands here, but there's plenty of them. A large review of studies on attitudes to mask-wearing concluded "We found that individuals are more likely to wear facemasks due to the perceived susceptibility and perceived severity of being afflicted with life-threatening diseases. Although perceived susceptibility appeared to be the most significant factor determining compliance, perceived benefits of mask-wearing was found to have significant effects on mask-wearing compliance as well. Perceived barriers include experience or perception of personal discomfort and sense of embarrassment. Media blitz and public health promotion activities supported by government agencies provide cues to increase the public’s usage of facemasks"...basically, the science supports it and we need to educate people about the benefits (as well as how to use them correctly). 

[zahidf]

The advice against mask wearing in the UK seems based more on lack of masks rather than evidence it hurts. It seems that it definitely reduces people spreading it.

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

The advice against mask wearing in the UK seems based more on lack of masks rather than evidence it hurts. It seems that it definitely reduces people spreading it.

I think part of it is the conflation of mask wearing to protect the wearer and mask wearing to prevent spread.  Most of the drawbacks of mask wearing (excessive face touching, sense of security) seem to be more issues when you're wearing the mask for personal protection.

[Toilet Duck]

35 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Is there any evidence that mass wearing of masks in Japan or other Asian country’s actually reduces infection rates? Also what effect does it have on immune systems, is herd immunity affected? 

Fully referenced and up to date guidance from ECDC on face masks here. Supply and educating the public are the two principal hurdles to be overcome at the moment, but there's strong support for their use in confined spaces (where we all want to go!). 

As for herd immunity, we all get infections, even when herd immunity exists (so many things influence how well your immune system is functioning on a given day, especially lifestyle...there's also some really interesting stuff coming out in the chronobiology field linking seasonal light exposure to immune function, digging down deep to the molecular level to explain it...links between inflammation and circadian rhythms have been explained for quite a while (the pioneers of chronobiology got the Nobel prize recently)). So, while herd immunity plays a role in keeping infections in check, there's still outbreaks of all sorts of infections all the time (to which the general public supposedly has some level of immunity at a population level). So, source control seems a better option to me. 

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I think part of it is the conflation of mask wearing to protect the wearer and mask wearing to prevent spread.  Most of the drawbacks of mask wearing (excessive face touching, sense of security) seem to be more issues when you're wearing the mask for personal protection.

Yeah, pretty much. Unless we are all wearing respirator masks, with goggles and (for the more extreme) hazmat suits, then we aren't going to protect ourselves that much (and we need to know how to put all the garb on and take it off safely, dispose of it safely and then do the whole thing again next time we leave our safe, secure, sterile environment...sure we'll all turn into Howard Hughes!)). What frontline workers who are definitely exposed to lots of virus need compared to source control is entirely different (and in the case of this virus, since asymptomatic people are infectious, then it's more sensible to promote use by all rather than those who think they have either had a close contact, or are developing symptoms....that in itself removes stigma and promotes it as socially responsible). 

[Waterdeep]

Mutations ffs

'This paper brings bad news as the researchers took a more accurate approach in trying to find mutations from 11 viral isolates from patients in China. They found that from those 11 viral isolates, they obtained 33 mutations total, with 19 of those 33 being completely novel mutations (not recorded in any database).

Furthermore, they observed a tri-nucleotide mutation, which is thought to be quite rare for initial estimates of how quickly SARS-CoV-2 can mutate. When looking at actual infectivity of these new mutations, the researchers found that indeed, some of these mutations showed a wide range of increased and decreased infectivity rates measured by inferring viral load from RT-PCR cycle thresholds. The greatest increase was a 270-fold increase in viral load of the 33 mutations observed. By showing that these mutations could increase infectivity, and thus lethality most likely, the researchers believe that similar mutations recorded in Europe and New York match the more infectious mutations, which may explain the disparity between the west and east coast of the United States.

This does not bode well for efforts to make a vaccine as the previously underestimated mutation speed may make vaccines in the future less effective in providing immunity. A final and very important finding to note is that the researchers have been able to show that viral samples from stool could replicate in the human VERO-E6 cells, meaning that while it may not be a common form of transmission, it is indeed a pathway that the virus can use to infect others.'

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1

[Toilet Duck]

31 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Mutations ffs

'This paper brings bad news as the researchers took a more accurate approach in trying to find mutations from 11 viral isolates from patients in China. They found that from those 11 viral isolates, they obtained 33 mutations total, with 19 of those 33 being completely novel mutations (not recorded in any database).

Furthermore, they observed a tri-nucleotide mutation, which is thought to be quite rare for initial estimates of how quickly SARS-CoV-2 can mutate. When looking at actual infectivity of these new mutations, the researchers found that indeed, some of these mutations showed a wide range of increased and decreased infectivity rates measured by inferring viral load from RT-PCR cycle thresholds. The greatest increase was a 270-fold increase in viral load of the 33 mutations observed. By showing that these mutations could increase infectivity, and thus lethality most likely, the researchers believe that similar mutations recorded in Europe and New York match the more infectious mutations, which may explain the disparity between the west and east coast of the United States.

This does not bode well for efforts to make a vaccine as the previously underestimated mutation speed may make vaccines in the future less effective in providing immunity. A final and very important finding to note is that the researchers have been able to show that viral samples from stool could replicate in the human VERO-E6 cells, meaning that while it may not be a common form of transmission, it is indeed a pathway that the virus can use to infect others.'

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1

Interesting paper. If I was reviewing it, my main concern would be how they determined the MOI for their virus isolates (they describe how they isolate it, but they don't describe how they titre the virus to make sure they infect all the cells with the same amount of virus, so the effect may be simply down to viral load in their infectivity assay (they claim an MOI of 0.5 for each assay, but don't say how they got there)...they also don't use quantitative PCR by spiking in known quantities of target, rather semi-quantitative to measure fold changes, so it's not the "most" accurate measure of viral load...there's a few other things I'd pick holes in if I was reviewing it, but they might be able to answer them by providing data in rebuttal). That the virus is drifting is expected (and previously reported), whether it translates into differences in pathogenicity isn't entirely clear from the paper (they say it is, but more evidence is needed IMO, especially how each of these isolates performs in something with an immune system, and cells that actually have human ACE2 on them rather than a non-human cell line with a receptor that is "similar" to human ACE2). Isolating infectious virus from stool supports some previous studies on other respiratory viruses, showing that they can spread via toilet use (close the lid when you flush!). Finding the new mutations is down to the fact that they sequenced to 2,000,000X (so the copies of some of the viral genomes with these novel mutations were extremely low and wouldn't be picked up by more routine sequencing). Again, how massively low copy-number of some variants translates into differing pathogenicity is unclear. However, there is more in this paper that one of the earlier studies suggesting different strains behaved differently (which was entirely speculative). 

[steviewevie]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651

[mattiloy]

Thanks toilet duck. Really interesting stuff!

[Smeble]

3 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yes, there's lots of studies (even half the population wearing them reduces transmission by 50%). Even poorly fitted ones seem to contribute. Old study from the Netherlands here, but there's plenty of them. A large review of studies on attitudes to mask-wearing concluded "We found that individuals are more likely to wear facemasks due to the perceived susceptibility and perceived severity of being afflicted with life-threatening diseases. Although perceived susceptibility appeared to be the most significant factor determining compliance, perceived benefits of mask-wearing was found to have significant effects on mask-wearing compliance as well. Perceived barriers include experience or perception of personal discomfort and sense of embarrassment. Media blitz and public health promotion activities supported by government agencies provide cues to increase the public’s usage of facemasks"...basically, the science supports it and we need to educate people about the benefits (as well as how to use them correctly). 

Cheers, it would be interesting to know what happens to disease resistance when fewer people are exposed to said disease. If people routinely wear masks, fewer people get the common cold for instance, over time will the common cold have more of an impact on the individual who does get it because we have lost our ability to fight it.?

[Guest]

Fascinating conference today. Hancock's comments about a vaccine are interesting as is the investment into the 2 schemes.

 

Also the bit at the end when he was asked about who's responsibility. Try and watch it if you can, he really seemed a bit rattled by it.

[steviewevie]

Hancock has got a week to save his job.

[Crazyfool01]

Those poor Americans .... its horrendous  

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Hancock has got a week to save his job.

Agreed. If they don't reach the 100k a day targets then he's probably gonna resign.

 

Queue the hindsight police claiming he wouldn't have been able to know they wouldn't reach an arbitrary target that he set himself.