When will this shit end?

[jparx]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Agreed. If they don't reach the 100k a day targets then he's probably gonna resign.

 

Queue the hindsight police claiming he wouldn't have been able to know they wouldn't reach an arbitrary target that he set himself.

I dunno about that. His line has been some bs about demand not being that high. I’m sure he’ll argue they COULD test 100K but there isn’t that level of demand.

[gizmoman]

On 4/17/2020 at 5:48 PM, gizmoman said:

Really? Was the most telling daily briefing yet, just 3 weeks in and after being told a vaccine will take 18 months they have now devoted a whole session on discussing how vaccine production is being ramped up, Vallance tried to inject a word or two of caution but the gist is clear the vaccine is coming sooner rather than later, the journo who said they are making 1million doses BEFORE they have even tested it let the cat out of the bag.

If you are bored and want something to think about, think on this, will you take a vaccine if it is offered in the next 3 months? If they make it mandatory will you rebel? If you are not allowed to travel unless you have had a vaccine will you consent anyway? The people who have been predicting this for years have been dismissed as cranks, things are about to get real.

4 days on and they have now announced human trials will start on Thursday, it seems like the need to spend 1 year plus developing a vaccine is not necessary if you throw more money at the problem.

I missed this over the weekend,

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/sarah-gilbert-from-the-university-of-oxford-says-clinical-trials-are-due-to-start-at-the-end-of-next-week-for-coronavirus-1-6613613

the bit that jumped out is,

"The first step is to immunise healthy people between the age of 18-55, after which they will seek to vaccinate older people, who Gilbert claims “are the people we need to protect with this vaccine”."

Sadly I don't fall within that age group so won't have the advantage that most of you have, you lucky people.

[Toilet Duck]

28 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Cheers, it would be interesting to know what happens to disease resistance when fewer people are exposed to said disease. If people routinely wear masks, fewer people get the common cold for instance, over time will the common cold have more of an impact on the individual who does get it because we have lost our ability to fight it.?

It’s an interesting question! My guess would be that based on the characteristics of the viruses that cause common colds (upper respiratory tract colonisation), is that they would still cause mild infection. Mass mask wearing (like mass vaccination) would provide a new selective pressure for all sorts of viruses, so they would adapt. The evolution of virulence is a really interesting topic (Joshua Lederberg wrote something great stuff on it).  Broadly speaking, viruses that can find a new host easily, tend to be worse than those that have more difficultly finding a new host (better to keep the one you are in alive!). HIV strains in neighbouring African countries cause AIDS at completely different rates depending on how easy transmission is (Senegal vs Ivory Coast was always the classic example). The simplest way for a virus to adapt when barriers to transmission are put up is for it to become less virulent, it can then bubble away in the population. How any of this might pan out with widespread behavioural change in response to this coronavirus is anyone’s guess! 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

 

I'm afraid that I haven't read this thread lately, so please forgive if this is repetition.

My wife's mates husband's brother had Covid -19 but was advised to stay at home. He then had a heart attack believed to have been brought on my the affects of the breathing difficulties that he was experiencing at home. His death has now been certified as that of a heart attack only. His mother has since established that in one night alone at the Birmingham QE Hospital that there were 53 cases of Covid - 19 patients having heart attacks. Not all of those died, but those that did, were certified as having died from a heart attack, and not Covid - 19.

On top of the above, there's this new bit of information that I have recently been made aware of (but haven't yet verified);

Sage {Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies} evidence used to guide ministers through the coronavirus crisis will remain a SECRET until the pandemic is over, says government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

 

It would appear to me that they are lying about the number of Covid - 19 deaths (they can't even count up properly the deaths that they do admit to having happened!), and were less than wise / efficient / responsible etc from the start of all this.

And we trust this Government not only with our lives, but that of the country's financial wealth. They can't even count FFS, let alone deal in £ trillions. 

[steviewevie]

vaccine available to buy in boots by the weekend?

[northernringo]

41 minutes ago, jparx said:

I dunno about that. His line has been some bs about demand not being that high. I’m sure he’ll argue they COULD test 100K but there isn’t that level of demand.

Just playing devil's advocate here, but is there a demand for 100,000 tests a day?

I think every front line worker who wants tested can be tested.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I’m not sure we need 100k tests yet, surely that will come when lockdown is relaxed and we need to (try) and aggressively contact trace, alongside the app etc? That wouldn’t do much good now, because the lockdown itself is far more effective on its own.

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

Thanks toilet duck. Really interesting stuff!

No bother!

[Toilet Duck]

36 minutes ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

 

I'm afraid that I haven't read this thread lately, so please forgive if this is repetition.

My wife's mates husband's brother had Covid -19 but was advised to stay at home. He then had a heart attack believed to have been brought on my the affects of the breathing difficulties that he was experiencing at home. His death has now been certified as that of a heart attack only. His mother has since established that in one night alone at the Birmingham QE Hospital that there were 53 cases of Covid - 19 patients having heart attacks. Not all of those died, but those that did, were certified as having died from a heart attack, and not Covid - 19.

On top of the above, there's this new bit of information that I have recently been made aware of (but haven't yet verified);

Sage {Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies} evidence used to guide ministers through the coronavirus crisis will remain a SECRET until the pandemic is over, says government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

 

It would appear to me that they are lying about the number of Covid - 19 deaths (they can't even count up properly the deaths that they do admit to having happened!), and were less than wise / efficient / responsible etc from the start of all this.

And we trust this Government not only with our lives, but that of the country's financial wealth. They can't even count FFS, let alone deal in £ trillions. 

That’s awful to hear mate, and really highlights at a personal level the effect this is having on people. In throwing out stats and numbers, and discussing this in the abstract, it’s easy to forget that for people like your wife’s mate, they just lost someone they shouldn’t have because of this. 
 

if it’s any solace, I don’t think there’s a grand conspiracy to cover up deaths (they don’t even report those outside hospitals at the moment). These things get revised all the time and reporting criteria change. The hospitals are in crisis mode, reviews and audits later will have the time to be more precise. 
 

how your government are performing is another matter, and not one I’m entirely qualified to judge. 
 

take care!

[WhoamI?]

6 hours ago, gigpusher said:

. When I went to San Francisco I just couldn't get over how normalised it is to have people with severe mental health problems living on the streets.

"In 2014, 80% of homeless people in England reported that they had mental health issues, with 45% having been diagnosed with a mental health condition.^1"

https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/statistics/mental-health-statistics-homelessness

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

57 minutes ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

 

I'm afraid that I haven't read this thread lately, so please forgive if this is repetition.

My wife's mates husband's brother had Covid -19 but was advised to stay at home. He then had a heart attack believed to have been brought on my the affects of the breathing difficulties that he was experiencing at home. His death has now been certified as that of a heart attack only. His mother has since established that in one night alone at the Birmingham QE Hospital that there were 53 cases of Covid - 19 patients having heart attacks. Not all of those died, but those that did, were certified as having died from a heart attack, and not Covid - 19.

On top of the above, there's this new bit of information that I have recently been made aware of (but haven't yet verified);

Sage {Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies} evidence used to guide ministers through the coronavirus crisis will remain a SECRET until the pandemic is over, says government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

 

It would appear to me that they are lying about the number of Covid - 19 deaths (they can't even count up properly the deaths that they do admit to having happened!), and were less than wise / efficient / responsible etc from the start of all this.

And we trust this Government not only with our lives, but that of the country's financial wealth. They can't even count FFS, let alone deal in £ trillions. 

Clearly a lot of deaths are getting recorded as being down to Covid-19, broadly speaking around 1400-1600 people die in the U.K. every day, so at one point at our peak two thirds of deaths were being recorded as being due to it, however overall deaths did not go up by the same amount so clearly there was a lot of overlap. The vast majority of cases are reported as being people with underlying health conditions, but clearly these underlying health conditions are not being given as cause of death, otherwise we would be seeing very small numbers of people reported as dying from Covid-19, not nearly 1000 per day at one point (bit with overall death figures only going up by relatively small margins) ONS figures for March showed deaths from heart attacks and strokes were down fairly significantly. They haven’t disappeared or stopped happening, but the explanation is Covid-19 is being given as the cause of death. What I’m saying is I don’t think there is some grand conspiracy or cover up, there is clearly a lot of overlap with regards to cause of death and probably just as many occasions when the cause of deaths is given as Covid for somebody with a more serious underlying condition and visa versa.

[WhoamI?]

53 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

vaccine available to buy in boots by the weekend?

 The queue for our branch will start on @Ozannes nearest beach!  

London will be lined up to...I do not want to know...Orkney???

 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, WhoamI? said:

 The queue for our branch will start on @Ozannes nearest beach!  

London will be lined up to...I do not want to know...Orkney???

 

theres no Glastonbury entry queue this year ....  this might well be preferable  

[WhoamI?]

1 hour ago, gizmoman said:

 

"The first step is to immunise healthy people between the age of 18-55, after which they will seek to vaccinate older people, who Gilbert claims “are the people we need to protect with this vaccine”."

 

Is it me, or does it make more sense to vaccinate the people we need to protect first?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

7 minutes ago, WhoamI? said:

Is it me, or does it make more sense to vaccinate the people we need to protect first?

I suppose it’s instinctive to think that, but then 18-55 year olds will be spreading it the most in work places, commuting, socialising etc, vaccinise them and you effectively eliminate it as a risk for older people anyway  

[Guest]

2 hours ago, jparx said:

I dunno about that. His line has been some bs about demand not being that high. I’m sure he’ll argue they COULD test 100K but there isn’t that level of demand.

He's mentioned both, the capacity to test is now over 39k which is what he's set the target of. The ability to carry out 100k tests per day by the end of April. Currently they are carry out about 20k tests,  but that figure isn't the one he set his sights on.

 

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m not sure we need 100k tests yet, surely that will come when lockdown is relaxed and we need to (try) and aggressively contact trace, alongside the app etc? That wouldn’t do much good now, because the lockdown itself is far more effective on its own.

It kind of doesn't matter if we need them or not. This was the target set by the Health Secretary, when he came back from illness (which itself was great) he reassuringly struck a confident tone that day and said it'll be 100k a day by end of the month. If we don't hit that it's on him, he would have to resign. Now if we start saying 'oh we don't actually need those tests' that's another convenient get out of jail for them.

 

There's also the argument that the buck should stop with the PM, and he should take ultimate responsibility.

[shoptildrop]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Hancock has got a week to save his job.

Yep they have been finger pointing and looking for a scapegoat to blame!! He is supposed to be in charge of this but I feel it's wrong to lay the blame on one person when it's quite clear this starts from the top down and that behavioural so called  "expert" Cummings  

[WhoamI?]

59 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

theres no Glastonbury entry queue this year ....  this might well be preferable  

Anyone want to estimate how long a Glasto entry queue would be if it was all 2 metres apart?  Includes Camper Vans East...

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, WhoamI? said:

Anyone want to estimate how long a Glasto entry queue would be if it was all 2 metres apart?  Includes Camper Vans East...

135,000 paying punters x2m 270,000m divided by 4 gates ..... each gate queue 67,500m ....  ish 

Edited April 21, 2020 by crazyfool1
paying punters might be wrong ?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, shoptildrop said:

Yep they have been finger pointing and looking for a scapegoat to blame!! He is supposed to be in charge of this but I feel it's wrong to lay the blame on one person when it's quite clear this starts from the top down and that behavioural so called  "expert" Cummings  

Some of the actual experts have been alright to be fair. Chris Whitty seems like a lovely bloke, things seem a bit calmer with him on the screen. Jonathan Van Tam makes me chuckle to, he also has cracking suits.

[Guest]

Ignore lol. How do you embed tweets?

Edited April 21, 2020 by Ozanne

[gizmoman]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Some of the actual experts have been alright to be fair. Chris Whitty seems like a lovely bloke, things seem a bit calmer with him on the screen. Jonathan Van Tam makes me chuckle to, he also has cracking suits.

I've been watching Chris Whitty's old lectures the last week or so and they are terrific, he may be an advisor to a tory government but I suspect his own politics are quite a bit more left wing. His medical lectures on heart disease, cancer etc are very informing but this presentation in particular really opened my eyes,

it makes sense of a lot of things that have puzzled me for years.

[Crazyfool01]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Ignore lol. How do you embed tweets?

Bottom right of the tweet ... then copy link to tweet ... and then paste it ... 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Bottom right of the tweet ... then copy link to tweet ... and then paste it ... 

Thanks mate, I'm a dumdum 😆

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Thanks mate, I'm a dumdum 😆

Took me a while to figure that one out too