When will this shit end?

[gizmoman]

Forgot to mention, tattooing people for identity is still considered beyond the pale by most people, younger ones may not be fully aware of this,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_of_inmates_in_German_concentration_camps

[Andy0808 v5]

5 hours ago, gizmoman said:

Forgot to mention, tattooing people for identity is still considered beyond the pale by most people, younger ones may not be fully aware of this,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_of_inmates_in_German_concentration_camps

 

[Lycra]

9 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

How's the PPE situation for her?

Thankfully there's been no major issues with PPE. In the earliest weeks she suffered from sores caused by the PPE but these have been overcome by resourcefulness & ingenuity. One colleagues mother made them all head bands with buttons sown on to keep PPE ties away from the ears.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lycra

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

28 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

What a guy. Just been looking at his Wikipedia.  Apparently his model during the swine flu outbreak predicted there could be 65,000 deaths.  There ended up being below 500.  Not sure what measures (if any) were taken to mitigate that, but a lockdown obviously wasn't one of them.

Also did similar for foot and mouth, and let’s face it the Covid predictions will probably be wrong as well. Don’t get me wrong our death toll is horrendous, but his modelling predicted 10x our current death toll with mitigation strategies in place, which doesn’t look hugely likely.

That said it is to be expected. They’re concerned with public health and public health only, and their modelling is always going to be based on ensuring the best health outcomes. Anything better than their modelling predicted And they’ve done their job, but as a result their modelling is always likely to be ott. The question is how much weight should the government place on them, but that’s another issue entirely.

[mcshed]

I see the BBC has pulled a quote from Oor Nicola saying "No death toll is acceptable." I'll need to listen to the whole interview for context as that sounds mad. If that is the case then we are never leaving lockdown.

[steviewevie]

Now Fergie has been outed as a fraud we can end the lockdown and go back to the good old days.

[JoeyT]

Not sure how legitimate this is but the HR manager at my firm just sent it to those of us in the coronavirus contingency group. 

Government's roadmap to ease Covid-19 restrictions will be set out in 5 phases. These phases will be on 3 week review process, the current phases would commence on the following dates:

Phase 1 - 18th May
Phase 2 - 8th June
Phase 3 - 29th June
Phase 4 - 20th July
Phase 5 - 10th August

If coronavirus cases begin to increase, we will revert to the restrictions set out in the previous stage.

🔮 PHASE 1 🔮

Phase 1 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Construction workers, landscape gardeners and other outdoor workers may return to work

🔸 Garden centres, repair shops and hardware stores may reopen

🔸 Fitness & sport activities (non-contact) in small groups (max of 4 people) may resume (golf included)

🔸  People may meet up with friends and family in small groups outdoors (size of a "small group" is defined as up to 4 people)

🔸 The majority of regular health services will resume 

🔸 Outdoor public amenities and tourism sites may reopen (beaches & mountain walks)

*NOTE - social distancing guidelines will remain in operation for all

🔮 PHASE 2 🔮

Phase 2 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Restriction will be extended from 5km to 20km

🔸 Specific retail hours will be allocated for those currently cocooning

🔸 Home visits will be allowed to those cocooning, by a small number of persons for a short period of time

🔸 Up to 4 people may visit another household for a short period of time

🔸 Slightly larger family gatherings at funerals will be permitted (limited to maximum safe social distancing can still be applied)

🔸 Solitary workers and workers that can maintain social distancing can return to work

🔸 Small retail outlets that can control staff and customer numbers and maintain social distancing may reopen

🔸 Public libraries will reopen

🔸 Outdoor sporting activities, involving small group training (no matches) can recommenced (no contact still allowed)

🔮 PHASE 3 🔮

Phase 3 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Commence opening of creches and pre-schools for children of essential workers

🔸 Commence a phased approach to visiting at hospitals and other healthcare settings

🔸 Businesses where employees have low levels of daily interaction may reopen

🔸 Phase in the opening of all other non-essential retail outlets, restricting customer numbers and applying social distancing (limited to retail outlets with street level entrance and exit, i.e. not in shopping centres)

🔸 Playgrounds will be reopened

🔸 'Behind closed doors' sporting events may recommence
 
🔸 Cafes and restaurants may reopen as long as social distancing is maintained

🔮 PHASE 4 🔮

Phase 4 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Travel will be extended to outside of your region

🔸 Larger household visits will be permitted

🔸 Small social gatherings will be permitted (baptisms, small weddings etc.)

🔸 Creches and pre-schools will reopen for all other children

🔸 Other employees return to work - beginning with those who cannot work remotely and then staggering the working times to ensure social distancing 

🔸 Barbers and hairdressers may reopen

🔸 Museums and other cultural outlets may reopen

🔸 Sports teams (GAA & soccer) may recommence and public swimming pools may reopen

🔸 Hotels and other hospitality units may reopen based on limited occupancy. Hotel bars are to remain closed.

🔮 PHASE 5 🔮

Phase 5 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Social gatherings will be permitted except for large gathering and gatherings in households of suspect cases

🔸 Schools and colleges will reopen on a phased basis and will recommence in the new academic year 

🔸 Normal hospital and other residential setting visits will be allowed

🔸 All employees may return to work on normal onsite arrangements, except organisations that cannot maintain social distancing plans

🔸 Enclosed shopping centres may reopen

🔸 Tattoo and piercing parlors may reopen

🔸 Cinemas may reopen

🔸 Close contact physical sports may recommence (rugby, boxing etc.)

🔸 Gyms and dance studios may reopen

🔸 Mass sporting events may recommence where social distancing can be maintained

🔸 Indoor recreational venues may reopen (bowling, bingo etc.)

🔸Small festivals and other outdoor cultural events may resume

🔸 Tourist travel to offshore islands may resume

[EasyUserName]

Isn't that the Irish plan?

[jparx]

@JoeyT that looks to me like the Irish roadmap that was shared here at the weekend. Looks identical (and football referred to as "soccer" is a giveaway!). Reckon your friend has been sent the Irish document.

[Toilet Duck]

33 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

Isn't that the Irish plan?

Definitely! Not sure the London GAA team features highly enough in the thinking in Whitehall to be included specifically for opening up in Phase 4! 

[ghostdancer1]

yes, that's the Irish one:

https://assets.gov.ie/73823/075541bb68c146e09a31367b69c76621.pdf

https://assets.gov.ie/73722/ffd17d70fbb64b498fd809dde548f411.pdf

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by ghostdancer1

[Crazyfool01]

Getting slightly wound up here  today ... the auction centre next door to me has been operating with one person at night and one person in the day which I was prepared to overlook and also selling stuff online . Yesterday 8 cars in the car park and all staff returned along with people picking things up by parking at the gate .. and phoning ... today a lorry turning up to offload furniture for it ... I reported it yesterday but nothing has been done ... meanwhile I’m sat in my flat not wanting to be that curtain twitcher but it’s getting bloody hard ... am I being unreasonable ? 

Edited May 6, 2020 by crazyfool1

[ghostdancer1]

1 hour ago, Cream Soda said:

What a guy. Just been looking at his Wikipedia.  Apparently his model during the swine flu outbreak predicted there could be 65,000 deaths.  There ended up being below 500.  Not sure what measures (if any) were taken to mitigate that, but a lockdown obviously wasn't one of them.

Could be 65,000 deaths.

And that was one of the models. There will likely have been others that predicted less deaths than there were.

Do you know what models are?

 

 

[gigpusher]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Getting slightly wound up here  today ... the auction centre next door to me has been operating with one person at night and one person in the day which I was prepared to overlook and also selling stuff online . Yesterday 8 cars in the car park and all staff returned along with people picking things up by parking at the gate .. and phoning ... today a lorry turning up to offload furniture for it ... I reported it yesterday but nothing has been done ... meanwhile I’m sat in my flat not wanting to be that curtain twitcher but it’s getting bloody hard ... am I being unreasonable ? 

For me personally if people seem to be making an effort to social distance etc then I am of the opinion live and let live. You never know what someone else is going through. They could feel they have to return to work, be on verge of losing their home etc. If they are not making any effort and you think it's blatantly unsafe then you could report it but I suspect we are only a week or so away from the government announcing that people should return to work etc anyway. One thing I do know is that the police don't  seem to be doing much about most people anyway so you might be better off just ensuring you are keeping well clear of them yourself and keeping yourself safe. 

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

For me personally if people seem to be making an effort to social distance etc then I am of the opinion live and let live. You never know what someone else is going through. They could feel they have to return to work, be on verge of losing their home etc. If they are not making any effort and you think it's blatantly unsafe then you could report it but I suspect we are only a week or so away from the government announcing that people should return to work etc anyway. One thing I do know is that the police don't  seem to be doing much about most people anyway so you might be better off just ensuring you are keeping well clear of them yourself and keeping yourself safe. 

Yep .. probably right ..  just suffering cabin fever and I can’t not see it whilst sat on my sofa ... plenty of pretence of being safe operating behind a gate and wearing plastic gloves ( for all the good that does ) ... need my walk today !! 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Cream Soda said:

What a guy. Just been looking at his Wikipedia.  Apparently his model during the swine flu outbreak predicted there could be 65,000 deaths.  There ended up being below 500.  Not sure what measures (if any) were taken to mitigate that, but a lockdown obviously wasn't one of them.

Actually, we got lucky with swine flu. The one thing that would have the biggest impact on the current pandemic is a working vaccine. With Swine flu, turns out we already had one. All those years of vaccinating at risk populations gave them a degree of immunity to swine flu that wasn't expected and it ended up having very little impact on older populations. Dodged a bullet, but it's hard to build unforeseen biology into a model. We might not be so lucky next time there's a big flu outbreak, but when things don't turn out as modelled (either through lucky breaks, or by actually changing the model by changing behaviour), there's a boy who cried wolf element that says we don't need worry next time because last time nothing much happened (it was a factor in the early response to this one). 

[DeanoL]

22 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I see what you mean, too. But is it not possible that it is just far less deadly than we think? The way I’m imagining it is a a graph with daily deaths claiming to their peak, which is obviously data we know and reflected in the stats, with a corresponding line a long way above that, which reflects the actual number of cases we’ve had. Either way I think this can only be a positive, but something somewhere doesn’t really add up either.

The death rate is odd as it's also partly down to the level of care people get. It's clear from how many people there are in hospital that the rate of severe symptoms is pretty high, and hospitals reached just around the peak numbers they could deal with. Without the lockdown slowing things, this wouldn't have been the case, so not only would more people have caught it, a larger proportion of those would have died from it, through not having access to appropriate treatment. 

I guess it's possible loads more have had it and loads more have been asymptomatic, so the hospital numbers represent a smaller proportion of the total that have had it, but I think the numbers are such that maybe it's "a bit" less deadly rather than loads less.

[Dom Wall]

Morning! Instead of my daily nose I've decided to post...

What's everyone's experiences with masks - any recommendations? All the builders merchants etc round my way are out of respirators, so looks like it might be an Amazon job, but the reviews aren't great.

[gigpusher]

16 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep .. probably right ..  just suffering cabin fever and I can’t not see it whilst sat on my sofa ... plenty of pretence of being safe operating behind a gate and wearing plastic gloves ( for all the good that does ) ... need my walk today !! 

Yes I find if something is irritating me that distraction is the best approach. Go for your walk and maybe then listen to some music or read a good book or get absorbed in a series something to take your mind off it. 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Also did similar for foot and mouth, and let’s face it the Covid predictions will probably be wrong as well. Don’t get me wrong our death toll is horrendous, but his modelling predicted 10x our current death toll with mitigation strategies in place, which doesn’t look hugely likely.

Actually the modelling has been pretty much spot on. Do nothing predicted over 500,000 fatalities, loose mitigation (i.e., leaving stuff open but case isolation and some hand hygiene) would have halved that to about 250,000...all 4 recommended public health measures (i.e. lockdown) predicted between 5,600 and 48,000 depending on what the R0 of the virus was at the time of lockdown and whether higher or lower ICU triggers were used to implement the measures. At an R0 of 2.6 (which now looks an underestimation, it was 4.7 in Ireland by the time we locked down) and the highest ICU trigger of 400 admissions (i.e., late lockdown of a rapidly spreading virus), predicted total fatalities was 48,000...it's not over and everyone hasn't been counted yet, but it's not far off at the moment (I think it will be higher than the models predicted when we finally emerge). The higher R0 is probably counterbalanced by a lower fatality rate, but the assumptions made at the start were based on the best available information at the time. 

He acted like a selfish eejit, but the science is still solid. 

 

[Wooderson]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Not sure how legitimate this is but the HR manager at my firm just sent it to those of us in the coronavirus contingency group. 

Government's roadmap to ease Covid-19 restrictions will be set out in 5 phases. These phases will be on 3 week review process, the current phases would commence on the following dates:

Phase 1 - 18th May
Phase 2 - 8th June
Phase 3 - 29th June
Phase 4 - 20th July
Phase 5 - 10th August

If coronavirus cases begin to increase, we will revert to the restrictions set out in the previous stage.

🔮 PHASE 1 🔮

Phase 1 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Construction workers, landscape gardeners and other outdoor workers may return to work

🔸 Garden centres, repair shops and hardware stores may reopen

🔸 Fitness & sport activities (non-contact) in small groups (max of 4 people) may resume (golf included)

🔸  People may meet up with friends and family in small groups outdoors (size of a "small group" is defined as up to 4 people)

🔸 The majority of regular health services will resume 

🔸 Outdoor public amenities and tourism sites may reopen (beaches & mountain walks)

*NOTE - social distancing guidelines will remain in operation for all

🔮 PHASE 2 🔮

Phase 2 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Restriction will be extended from 5km to 20km

🔸 Specific retail hours will be allocated for those currently cocooning

🔸 Home visits will be allowed to those cocooning, by a small number of persons for a short period of time

🔸 Up to 4 people may visit another household for a short period of time

🔸 Slightly larger family gatherings at funerals will be permitted (limited to maximum safe social distancing can still be applied)

🔸 Solitary workers and workers that can maintain social distancing can return to work

🔸 Small retail outlets that can control staff and customer numbers and maintain social distancing may reopen

🔸 Public libraries will reopen

🔸 Outdoor sporting activities, involving small group training (no matches) can recommenced (no contact still allowed)

🔮 PHASE 3 🔮

Phase 3 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Commence opening of creches and pre-schools for children of essential workers

🔸 Commence a phased approach to visiting at hospitals and other healthcare settings

🔸 Businesses where employees have low levels of daily interaction may reopen

🔸 Phase in the opening of all other non-essential retail outlets, restricting customer numbers and applying social distancing (limited to retail outlets with street level entrance and exit, i.e. not in shopping centres)

🔸 Playgrounds will be reopened

🔸 'Behind closed doors' sporting events may recommence
 
🔸 Cafes and restaurants may reopen as long as social distancing is maintained

🔮 PHASE 4 🔮

Phase 4 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Travel will be extended to outside of your region

🔸 Larger household visits will be permitted

🔸 Small social gatherings will be permitted (baptisms, small weddings etc.)

🔸 Creches and pre-schools will reopen for all other children

🔸 Other employees return to work - beginning with those who cannot work remotely and then staggering the working times to ensure social distancing 

🔸 Barbers and hairdressers may reopen

🔸 Museums and other cultural outlets may reopen

🔸 Sports teams (GAA & soccer) may recommence and public swimming pools may reopen

🔸 Hotels and other hospitality units may reopen based on limited occupancy. Hotel bars are to remain closed.

🔮 PHASE 5 🔮

Phase 5 of the roadmap will lift the following restrictions:

🔸 Social gatherings will be permitted except for large gathering and gatherings in households of suspect cases

🔸 Schools and colleges will reopen on a phased basis and will recommence in the new academic year 

🔸 Normal hospital and other residential setting visits will be allowed

🔸 All employees may return to work on normal onsite arrangements, except organisations that cannot maintain social distancing plans

🔸 Enclosed shopping centres may reopen

🔸 Tattoo and piercing parlors may reopen

🔸 Cinemas may reopen

🔸 Close contact physical sports may recommence (rugby, boxing etc.)

🔸 Gyms and dance studios may reopen

🔸 Mass sporting events may recommence where social distancing can be maintained

🔸 Indoor recreational venues may reopen (bowling, bingo etc.)

🔸Small festivals and other outdoor cultural events may resume

🔸 Tourist travel to offshore islands may resume

 

[zahidf]

Interesting!

 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Interesting!

 

I'm sure businesses where can keep physical distancing, like drive throughs and takeaways. will do ok...but will people be going to shopping malls and pubs/restaurants/clubs/concerts and travelling on planes? Might take some persuasion.

[zahidf]

Great headline 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Great headline 

Shame they fail to mention the worst death toll in Europe