When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

They are going to lay out the next steps so probably more than just an announcement for announcement sake!

Yep seems like he will want to announce something on Sunday some good news to get people tuning in to the roadmap announcement , how’s things ? I’m having a very cynical and pissed off day !! Mostly handling things ok but today’s a rough one !! Have just been told work we’re supposed to be contacting us every few weeks for welfare ... instead they are busy filming tick tock videos on the communication thread for colleagues ... or they could spend that time monitoring and talking to customers about distancing rules ... sorry rant over .. hope things are good with you 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep seems like he will want to announce something on Sunday some good news to get people tuning in to the roadmap announcement , how’s things ? I’m having a very cynical and pissed off day !! Mostly handling things ok but today’s a rough one !! Have just been told work we’re supposed to be contacting us every few weeks for welfare ... instead they are busy filming tick tock videos on the communication thread for colleagues ... or they could spend that time monitoring and talking to customers about distancing rules ... sorry rant over .. hope things are good with you 

I'm ok, but my teenage kid is struggling with the tedium of staying home and doing online school stuff whilst not being able to see friends.

[Zoo Music Girl]

I do feel a bit like some people are kind of relaxing a bit in terms of restrictions. I'm sure some of the big groups I see on my walks aren't from the same household and there seem to be more of them. Also was infuriating on Monday to make my weekly trip to Tesco and see loads of people just going in for "a few bits" while I struggle to carry as much as I can get to avoid going back too often. I also just had the carpet company we were talking to just before lockdown  call me up to ask when they can come and fit it. As far as I'm aware it's still not the kind of thing that would be allowed? I won't be booking it anyway for a bit. I understand essential trades making house visits, like plumbers etc, but there is no way I can really justify letting guys into the house for a carpet when it's really not essential. But am wondering why that guy thinks anything has changed?

As @gigpusher says though it's not worth getting angry about other people's behaviour. Did plenty of that about my busybody neighbour early in the lockdown who seems to have no shortage of guests and spends half her weekend sat in other neighbours front garden having a good old chinwag, all the while thinking she is obeying the rules probably. Trying to be more Zen now! 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Track and trace apps ain't going well

 

 

 

 

Our government must surely know this will be the outcome for us too, they can’t be that thick. It’s pride isn’t it, they couldn’t possibly let Apple be the ones to make the app when you know they have all the experience in doing just that.

 

Ill definitely be downloading Apples one. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Glasters (and any big event) dependent upon these numbers IMO. Can't see gates opening next June unless theres been a huge national testing programme/people are passported in as immune.

Everything is leading towards it having been around longer and being much more asymptomatic than we believed day by day. One way or another it’s not going to be preventing festivals a year from now. 

[Doug85]

19 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Everything is leading towards it having been around longer and being much more asymptomatic than we believed day by day. One way or another it’s not going to be preventing festivals a year from now. 

Surely a successful antibody test will prove this too. The fact that someone from France has been traced to having it way back in December is proof that it was spreading in Europe well before they thought it was. Future Mother in law was ill with very similar symptoms at start of january, we had the same symptoms in middle of january and this was all well before we were aware of what the covid symptoms were and whether this was even in Europe. Now at the minute we can't say for certain we had Covid but if it were now we would be able to be tested. At least a proven antibody test would be able to give a higher indication and would be a game changer. 

If it's proven that more people have either had it or are immune then surely it can only be a positive for later in the year and next year. Hopefully that means Glastonbury is able to go ahead and I hope to christ our wedding is too. 

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, Cream Soda said:

I kind of get that...but I don't understand why.  I would have thought the accuracy of the test would be the same regardless of how many people are infected, why would the effectiveness of the test change?  I am clearly wrong, so I'm going to have another look at the thread and try to wrap my head around it.

@Toilet Duckthanks for trying to explain 🤣

I'll try and explain it. If you imagine the population is only 100 people and 1 person has the disease then a 95% accurate test is likely to tell the 1 guy he's got it but also tell 5 of the 99 who don't have it that they do. So you get 6 positive tests of which only 1 is real so 16.67% of your positives are correct. If you have 30 with the virus then 28 or 29 of them will be picked up and you'll still get 3 or 4 people without it coming up as positive but that is 89% accurate for your positive cases, you also now have 1 or 2 people who do have it coming up as negative.

[steviewevie]

FT STATS!

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

11 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

Surely a successful antibody test will prove this too. The fact that someone from France has been traced to having it way back in December is proof that it was spreading in Europe well before they thought it was. Future Mother in law was ill with very similar symptoms at start of january, we had the same symptoms in middle of january and this was all well before we were aware of what the covid symptoms were and whether this was even in Europe. Now at the minute we can't say for certain we had Covid but if it were now we would be able to be tested. At least a proven antibody test would be able to give a higher indication and would be a game changer. 

If it's proven that more people have either had it or are immune then surely it can only be a positive for later in the year and next year. Hopefully that means Glastonbury is able to go ahead and I hope to christ our wedding is too. 

Yes, to me in very basic terms the earlier it was here the better the situation is and will be going forward. So at the moment things seem to be getting more positive rather than less the further forward we go. If you break the French case down he likely got it from his wife and knowing what we know about the virus realistically it was probably at least early December it was first here, if not earlier. Considering we’ve got a pretty similar trajectory to France then you’d assume we’ve had it here for some time too. Either way it can only be a good thing rather than a bad thing, and diminish worries about next years Glastonbury being at risk. 

[The Nal]

44 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Everything is leading towards it having been around longer and being much more asymptomatic than we believed day by day. One way or another it’s not going to be preventing festivals a year from now. 

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

[Wooderson]

44 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Everything is leading towards it having been around longer and being much more asymptomatic than we believed day by day. One way or another it’s not going to be preventing festivals a year from now. 

Hope so. Two months ago in here however people were saying it was gonna blow over and people needed to be more positive. Where'd that get us?

[Zoo Music Girl]

5 minutes ago, The Nal said:

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

Wow that did not age well.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, The Nal said:

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

Don’t really get your point, other than things could look significantly better/different in three months time.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Wow that did not age well.

The WHO look like absolute plums themselves if you look at their own tweets from back in January. The world only knew HTH transmission was possible at the end of January, so I don’t think views and opinions like that at the time are unusual or odd even with the benefit of hindsight. It’s certainly absolutely no indication that things can’t get better and improve over what we currently expect.

[Cherry Tree]

15 minutes ago, The Nal said:

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

That should be archived by the British Museum, from "nah nothing to worry about" to being closed down in 5 weeks and 190 pages. A bit like the country’s response.

[gizmoman]

18 minutes ago, The Nal said:

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

Eastynh was right on the money, they should put him on SAGE, you called the cancellation early too, do you still think next years off?

[Zoo Music Girl]

I actually miss that thread. The original and best.

[stuartbert two hats]

Back when we had an admin on the site, he said early on that it may well be cancelled.  Coward that I am, I waited a full three weeks to say "Yes [we should be worried]"

[Wooderson]

13 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Eastynh was right on the money, they should put him on SAGE, you called the cancellation early too, do you still think next years off?

Without vaccine/widespread verified immunity all large gatherings are at risk. If you disagree ive a nice range of bridges to sell at great prices.

[Neil]

16 minutes ago, Cherry Tree said:

That should be archived by the British Museum

Or even the British Library.

Which efestivals is.

https://www.webarchive.org.uk/ukwa/

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

First few pages of this makes for interesting reading. Only 3 months ago.

 

I loved this thread, I like to think my views held up well in there...

[mazola]

4 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Glasters (and any big event) dependent upon these numbers IMO. Can't see gates opening next June unless theres been a huge national testing programme/people are passported in as immune.

I can't see immunity passports being a thing, surely that would encourage people to get it.

[mcshed]

43 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

That makes sense, thank you.  I still don't see why that is any more useful the more people are infected though...yes a higher number of cases will be picked up (because there are more cases) , but doesn't that also mean a higher number won't be?  Is it not correct that however many infections there are if you deduct roughly 5% that would give you the true number of positives?

Sorry if I'm coming across really thick here 🤣 Hopefully I'll learn something by the end of this!

EDIT: So does it basically mean that fewer people will be walking around thinking they are immune when they're not?  

Yeah so you'd get an estimate of the background level of infection in your sample but you'd be doing those tested a disservice as most people you were telling that they'd had it you'd be wrong.

[Wooderson]

42 minutes ago, mazola said:

I can't see immunity passports being a thing, surely that would encourage people to get it.

Festival (or any large open multi-day events) simply not a runner until the risk is dramatically reduced. 

[Crazyfool01]

New way of presenting the deaths today that might be interesting to see ... wonder if they will drop the other one in the coming days ...