When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

While it’s frustrating that people don’t follow the measures, bear in mind that all the government modelling to deal with it is based on a certain amount of non compliance. I think from memory the Imperial College modelling was based on 75% compliance with the measures.

This is not me making excuses for your flat mate, but rather me saying try not to worry about it too much, as long as you’re doing the right thing any steps to deal with it will make allowances for those who don’t.

Yeah, your flatmate is being a massive twat but I think citymapper this weekend had 10% of normal london traffic comparatively. Most people are complying with the distancing rules 

[Matt42]

13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah, your flatmate is being a massive twat but I think citymapper this weekend had 10% of normal london traffic comparatively. Most people are complying with the distancing rules 

Good stuff. I think it’s just the principle really.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf+html
 

This report which I think was quoted by the Imperial college yesterday has the U.K. reaching 5600 deaths, but potentially between 4000 to 7000 with peak daily deaths up to around 330 a day. It had the peak in about one weeks time and had us at virtually zero deaths by early May.

If this report is remotely true, then having us in lockdown until June would suggest an attempt to completely eradicate the virus

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Good stuff. I think it’s just the principle really.

I guess the worry is that more and more people will get sick of the restrictions and start ignoring them...which I guess why govt now doubling down on the message, sending letters etc...and with the number of deaths likely to be about 3.5k next weekend and 5-8k the following weekend that may dampen people's enthusiasm to socilaise somewhat.

[Crazyfool01]

26 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Good stuff. I think it’s just the principle really.

i think we all know people that aren't following the guidelines as strictly as we are ... Ive a friend that works off the shopfloor in a supermarket ... but seems to think it necessary to pick up essentials daily ..... I think ive managed to get through to him to be doing this less often,  but he tells me as he is there he might aswell .... keep doing your bit its tough to maintain calm with emotions  like we are all feeling at the moment ... but dont believe photos of certain newspapers that you see ... I saw some of my fb feed yesterday from the scum ... that someone else posted that were clearly taken from angles and of families out for walks ... 

Edited March 29, 2020 by crazyfool1

[zahidf]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf+html
 

This report which I think was quoted by the Imperial college yesterday has the U.K. reaching 5600 deaths, but potentially between 4000 to 7000 with peak daily deaths up to around 330 a day. It had the peak in about one weeks time and had us at virtually zero deaths by early May.

If this report is remotely true, then having us in lockdown until June would suggest an attempt to completely eradicate the virus

That reports been repudiated everywhere: the person who did it was an engineer and basically it's just a guess

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That reports been repudiated everywhere: the person who did it was an engineer and basically it's just a guess

Well it’s as much a guess as their original report that predicted 500,000 or 250000 deaths. Its data driven based on following the same path as China. It acknowledges this, but at the same time acknowledges that so far all the countries in the report have followed the same pattern as China anyway. 

[zahidf]

28 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Well it’s as much a guess as their original report that predicted 500,000 or 250000 deaths. Its data driven based on following the same path as China. It acknowledges this, but at the same time acknowledges that so far all the countries in the report have followed the same pattern as China anyway. 

I dont think its accurate to say it's their same report if it's from different people with different specialities 

Death rate is down today in the UK

[steviewevie]

yep, down to 209. Wouldn't think that social distancing would have an affect on number of deaths yet, but maybe it is...

[Avalon_Fields]

56 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf+html
 

This report which I think was quoted by the Imperial college yesterday has the U.K. reaching 5600 deaths, but potentially between 4000 to 7000 with peak daily deaths up to around 330 a day. It had the peak in about one weeks time and had us at virtually zero deaths by early May.

If this report is remotely true, then having us in lockdown until June would suggest an attempt to completely eradicate the virus

Peak daily of 330 actually sounds a relief after what we've seen in Spain & Italy.

[Avalon_Fields]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yep, down to 209. Wouldn't think that social distancing would have an affect on number of deaths yet, but maybe it is...

Hate to say, but it will rise again. They're not expecting the peak for another could of weeks

[stuartbert two hats]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yep, down to 209. Wouldn't think that social distancing would have an affect on number of deaths yet, but maybe it is...

I wouldn't have thought so. I expect that's a blip, sadly.

[Homer]

If Johnson gets incapacitated, who will step into his shoes and pretend to run the country?

It would be terrible if Johnson died, imagine his kids growing up without a father!

(I'm here all week... month... year.)

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Homer said:

If Johnson gets incapacitated, who will step into his shoes and pretend to run the country?

It would be terrible if Johnson died, imagine his kids growing up without a father!

(I'm here all week... month... year.)

Raab 😨

https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-designated-survivor-is-dominic-raab/

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Blip or not, encouraging that it’s actually lower than the previous day rather than another 20% higher, as that would make the 330 number far more doubtful.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Blip or not, encouraging that it’s actually lower than the previous day rather than another 20% higher, as that would make the 330 number far more doubtful.

It's certainly not a bad sign that it can go down one day.

[whitehorses]

4 hours ago, jparx said:

Full lockdown until June is actually earlier than I was expecting at this point, and I was quite surprised to see mention of late May.

Interesting to see what the lighter restrictions would be after that point. Return to work and shops/restaurants reopen with social distancing measures, and no mass gatherings? Feel like that bit is going to be the hardest to control.

I hope the first restrictions lifted are the banning of people going to National Parks and Trust (and similar) beaches and parklands, etc. This rule seems particularly insane. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by whitehorses

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

I hope the first restrictions lifted are the banning of people going to National Parks and Trust (and similar) beaches and parklands, etc. This rule seems particularly insane. 

Maybe the restrictions will get lifted in reverse to how they were imposed?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

7 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

I hope the first restrictions lifted are the banning of people going to National Parks and Trust (and similar) beaches and parklands, etc. This rule seems particularly insane. 

I’m not so sure, everyone thought they were clever going to Snowdon as it’s remote and there wouldn’t be anyone there and what was the result? Their highest ever visitor numbers. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Daily case numbers have also fallen two days in a row, which from what I can see is the first time that’s happened. That said I don’t think it’s anything to read into especially with death numbers also falling, as you’d expect death numbers to continue to rise for around a couple of weeks once case numbers start dropping. So also probably an anomaly.

 

[steviewevie]

 

[whitehorses]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m not so sure, everyone thought they were clever going to Snowdon as it’s remote and there wouldn’t be anyone there and what was the result? Their highest ever visitor numbers. 

But still there was loads of space and no reason to go very near others. Yes Snowdon was an interesting one, but near me most of the beaches are now closed, but there was never any more than 10 people on them anyway at this time of year. So the rule seems counter productive, by closing big open areas it forces people closer together in less spacious places 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, whitehorses said:

But still there was loads of space and no reason to go very near others. Yes Snowdon was an interesting one, but near me most of the beaches are now closed, but there was never any more than 10 people on them anyway at this time of year. So the rule seems counter productive, by closing big open areas it forces people closer together in less spacious places 

Yeah, it's a bit like the Wednesday+Thursday at Glastonbury, all the normal places are shut, so everyone packs out the nooks and crannies.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, whitehorses said:

But still there was loads of space and no reason to go very near others. Yes Snowdon was an interesting one, but near me most of the beaches are now closed, but there was never any more than 10 people on them anyway at this time of year. So the rule seems counter productive, by closing big open areas it forces people closer together in less spacious places 

The point is they shouldn’t be anywhere at the moment though. My local dog walking spot is Crown Estate, before Boris made the lock down official rather than advisory it was rammed with massive groups who didn’t need to be there. In most cases it would’ve been impossible to keep 2 metres apart on the paths. If it’s a question of lifting restrictions because it’s suitable to do so then yes of course, but of any restrictions we’re lifted at places like that now they’d be overrun.

[steviewevie]