When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But his figures still seem to pretty much support it? I’m inclined to agree that the figure will be higher anyway, because unless these measures stay in place until the vaccine Is here then cases will spike again in the future. But during this particular period of social distancing, if his data on case numbers falling is accurate and continues, then we’re definitely on track to peak at not more than 330 cases per day in about a week or so, and for total deaths to be around 7k or less.

It's not really a fall in case numbers but a slower increase so far. I also think today was a blip unfortunately. 7000 is way too low. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

It's not really a fall in case numbers but a slower increase so far. I also think today was a blip unfortunately. 7000 is way too low. 

Well from what I can see the guy you are quoting is an Actuary, so no more an expert on viruses and epidemiology than an Engineer at the Imperial college.

We have seen a fall in new case numbers two days in a row though, which I posted earlier.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Yoghurt on a Stick said:

That's certainly what cats do. So jealous that mine gets to go out as much as he likes.

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

37 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That's certainly what cats do. So jealous that mine gets to go out as much as he likes.

Yes, these are very odd times. Everyday I wake up and for one brief moment in time everything's OK, and then the word 'coronavirus' springs in to my mind, and my heart kind of sinks a little. However, I've got it lucky in that I have the company of my wife, and we have a lovely garden that we can walk around and sit in. A lot of people don't have that, so I count my blessings.

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

[oneeye]

[eFestivals]

20 hours ago, zahidf said:

The MD section in the private eye actually says that weekly deaths in feb are actually down on average from last year, which he puts down  to the handwashing increase in the UK which reduced other diseases as well as Covid19

i'd be careful about reading too much into MD's musings. He's got a very detached take on things - which has its place, but doesn't really align with what I think public opinion will allow a politician to do.

I reckon it's going to be exceedingly difficult for a politician to say "we can relax things now because only 100 people are dying each day".

[mcshed]

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

3% extra in food sales ? But I would doubt that’s the numbers of extra people crammed into queues at checkouts 

last time I went shopping there appeared to be 100% couples with a trolley each (to get round the limits on products) pretending not to know each other when they got to the tills.  

[mcshed]

10 hours ago, zahidf said:

It's only been an extra 3% so its negligible (comparative to xmas date)

The 3% was the number of people mass panic buying, the same numbers showed there was often a 160% increase in sales, it's just it wasn't caused by people buying huge amounts it was caused by everyone buying a bit more. This 160% is comparable to Christmas. Numbers taken from a link I think you originally shared and are possibly misremembering.

https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/opinion/why-stockpiling-is-not-the-crazy-selfish-behaviour-that-it-seems/3483

[zahidf]

'

UK rate of infection may be slowing - expert

The coronavirus epidemic may now be “just about” slowing in the UK just now, according to Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, an academic who has been highly influential in shaping the UK government’s strategy.

The indicators he was talking about didn’t include deaths, but he said that new hospital admissions did appear to be slowing a bit.

“It has not yet plateaued but the rate has slowed down,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme.

This was a trend that as also happening in other European states.

However, he went on to say that “critical data” which could help determine what was happening was missing, although that will change when new testing kits designed to find out whether someone has had the virus will be “rolled out.”

This would hopefully happen within days, if not weeks.'

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The ‘soft’ lockdown was two weeks ago, a lot businesses including high profile ones such as the premier league had already taken things into their own hands up to a week or some before that. So we’ve had social distancing measures in place in one form or another for at least three weeks. Certainly a lot of companies were closing offices as soon as there was a hint or a case in the early days, and enacting WFH for fear of it taking all their employees out later on down the line. I know a few friends companies had split staff into two and alternated who worked in the office weeks ago. So it isn’t inconceivable that new case numbers could be starting to fall.

We had 55 deaths two weeks ago and 335 a week ago when we went into full lockdown. Italy had over 800 deaths by the time they put full lockdown in place, so none of this is inconceivable 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

59 minutes ago, zahidf said:

'

UK rate of infection may be slowing - expert

The coronavirus epidemic may now be “just about” slowing in the UK just now, according to Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, an academic who has been highly influential in shaping the UK government’s strategy.

The indicators he was talking about didn’t include deaths, but he said that new hospital admissions did appear to be slowing a bit.

“It has not yet plateaued but the rate has slowed down,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme.

This was a trend that as also happening in other European states.

However, he went on to say that “critical data” which could help determine what was happening was missing, although that will change when new testing kits designed to find out whether someone has had the virus will be “rolled out.”

This would hopefully happen within days, if not weeks.'

The potentially huge benefit of this is that one week of lockdown is far too short a period to be seeing benefits, so it means we might be starting to see benefits from when things were a lot more relaxed. It bodes well for life being able to go back to some sort of normality sooner rather than later. Still too early to tell of course, but if much less strict measures can keep case numbers from getting out of hand then that is only good news.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Lycra]

Today my partner was up at 5:30 for yet another 12hr+ shift on a Covid-19 isolation unit. Proud of her yes but also very concerned as the frontline have still not received the recommended  PPE and have to make do with surgical masks which are proven not to be effective at protecting from corona. And yesterday we learnt with sadness one of her hospital colleagues died of covid-19...............

I'm telling you this not because I/we want your sympathy. I'm telling you because I want you to understand the dangers and potential sacrifices others are making in trying to save your loved ones. 

[Brave Sir Robin]

13 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

These are unprecedented times, I’m not sure the letter of the law is in the spirit of things on this occasion. Snowden is a remote scenic spot but people still flocked there in their droves. If people are openly allowed to travel there is a greater chance they all choose to travel to the same places, as was the case before the measures became official. Limiting people’s movement to as close to their homes as possible is entirely sensible on my opinion.

Apologies if the point you were trying to make was that people can actually travel to these remote spots, hence why they need to be closed.

My point was simply that regardless of what people should or should not be doing, the police actually have no power to stop you driving somewhere to do your daily exercise, as they seem to have assumed. Not that I'd want to be explaining that to them!

[zahidf]

 

[Lycra]

55 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Today my partner was up at 5:30 for yet another 12hr+ shift on a Covid-19 isolation unit. Proud of her yes but also very concerned as the frontline have still not received the recommended  PPE and have to make do with surgical masks which are proven not to be effective at protecting from corona. And yesterday we learnt with sadness one of her hospital colleagues died of covid-19...............

I'm telling you this not because I/we want your sympathy. I'm telling you because I want you to understand the dangers and potential sacrifices others are making in trying to save your loved ones. 

Sombre postscript.

Mrs Lycra reports more of her patients have died since her last shift 😦

Edited March 30, 2020 by Lycra

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Sombre postscript.

Mrs Lycra reports more of her patients have died since her last shift 😦

Ah sorry to hear that. All the best to her, one of the best of us

[Rose-Colored Boy]

17 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

wow I wonder who he got that from ...

It’s always good to be reminded that Boris is just as much of a dick around his friends as he is to the country.

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, Rose-Colored Boy said:

wow I wonder who he got that from ...

It’s always good to be reminded that Boris is just as much of a dick around his friends as he is to the country.

Despite any schadenfreude, it's going to be pretty shocking if any of the government get really ill or die.

[Rose-Colored Boy]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Despite any schadenfreude, it's going to be pretty shocking if any of the government get really ill or die.

Yes. On a human level we have to hope it doesn’t happen, obviously - although on the other hand Dominic Raab ending up in charge is Labour’s only chance of winning the next election.

[efcfanwirral]

16 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Despite any schadenfreude, it's going to be pretty shocking if any of the government get really ill or die.

That would change the people who arent taking it seriously immediately to "the world is ending". Civil disorder too perhaps 

[steviewevie]

Maybe we should remain locked down for the sake of the planet.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The ‘soft’ lockdown was two weeks ago, a lot businesses including high profile ones such as the premier league had already taken things into their own hands up to a week or some before that. So we’ve had social distancing measures in place in one form or another for at least three weeks. Certainly a lot of companies were closing offices as soon as there was a hint or a case in the early days, and enacting WFH for fear of it taking all their employees out later on down the line. I know a few friends companies had split staff into two and alternated who worked in the office weeks ago. So it isn’t inconceivable that new case numbers could be starting to fall.

We had 55 deaths two weeks ago and 335 a week ago when we went into full lockdown. Italy had over 800 deaths by the time they put full lockdown in place, so none of this is inconceivable 

I work in the office for a large bank and for the week before lockdown we had split workforce in the office/WFH. You are right, measures were being taken before the government enforced them.