When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

No deal brexit by the end of the year will be the icing on the cake.

[chuckles07]

5 hours ago, gigpusher said:

I now know 3 people who have lost relatives to this disease all in care homes. I don't know any who have died in hospital. Worries me how much higher the figure would be if we were properly reporting the deaths in care homes as well. 

My dad is in a nursing home. He has Alzheimer’s and is in the ‘high care’ wing, essentially end of life management.  There were 21 people there 3 weeks ago when lockdown started. Now there are 14. All those that died had covid symptoms but, as you would expect, significant ‘underlying conditions’. I don’t know if any of these people will be in the covid stats. There are also many people passing away at home who have chosen not to go to hospital. Ambulance crews are saying the number of calls they attend where the patient has already died have increased significantly.  The death toll directly and indirectly caused by the virus is much, much higher than the stats will ever indicate 

[steviewevie]

The number of new confirmed coronavirus infections in Germany has risen for a second consecutive day, as the country prepares to lift restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the virus.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases reported 2,866 new confirmed cases on Thursday, bringing the country’s total to to 130,450. The number of new cases on Wednesday was 2,486.

The daily death toll also rose for a second day, by 315 to 3,569, the tally showed. On Wednesday the reported death toll was 285.

[gizmoman]

14 minutes ago, chuckles07 said:

My dad is in a nursing home. He has Alzheimer’s and is in the ‘high care’ wing, essentially end of life management.  There were 21 people there 3 weeks ago when lockdown started. Now there are 14. All those that died had covid symptoms but, as you would expect, significant ‘underlying conditions’. I don’t know if any of these people will be in the covid stats. There are also many people passing away at home who have chosen not to go to hospital. Ambulance crews are saying the number of calls they attend where the patient has already died have increased significantly.  The death toll directly and indirectly caused by the virus is much, much higher than the stats will ever indicate 

This isn't true, the ONS data for all deaths is starting to show the additional deaths this year, this data is delayed, might be a few weeks behind but it will eventually show the excess death this year and we can be fairly certain all the excess death is down to covid19, so whether the cause of death is accurate or not the numbers will still be there.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

Chart 3, deaths registered by week is the one to watch.

Edited April 16, 2020 by gizmoman
Ref chart no.

[chuckles07]

1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

This isn't true, the ONS data for all deaths is starting to show the additional deaths this year, this data is delayed, might be a few weeks behind but it will eventually show the excess death this year and we can be fairly certain all the excess death is down to covid19, so whether the cause of death is accurate or not the numbers will still be there.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

Yes but as i understand it these are not the stats that are used in the daily briefing for the national comparisons nor are they being used in most of the headlines and discussion. If the deceased person hasn't been tested as having the virus they are not included in the calculations that WHO use.

[Lycra]

2 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

This isn't true, the ONS data for all deaths is starting to show the additional deaths this year, this data is delayed, might be a few weeks behind but it will eventually show the excess death this year and we can be fairly certain all the excess death is down to covid19, so whether the cause of death is accurate or not the numbers will still be there.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

The situation we are presently in is tragic with many people dying earlier than they should. This is being picked up in the number of deaths reported by the ONS. It begs the question, will we see a corresponding decrease of deaths below the norm at some point in the future which sadly reflects those taken early. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

21 minutes ago, chuckles07 said:

My dad is in a nursing home. He has Alzheimer’s and is in the ‘high care’ wing, essentially end of life management.  There were 21 people there 3 weeks ago when lockdown started. Now there are 14. All those that died had covid symptoms but, as you would expect, significant ‘underlying conditions’. I don’t know if any of these people will be in the covid stats. There are also many people passing away at home who have chosen not to go to hospital. Ambulance crews are saying the number of calls they attend where the patient has already died have increased significantly.  The death toll directly and indirectly caused by the virus is much, much higher than the stats will ever indicate 

It’s in the data, just delayed. If anything Covid is over represented. A guy on the BBC this morning was explaining deaths from things like heart attacks and strokes are down by quite significant percentages. Reason being Covid is being given for the cause of death as replacement for a lot of deaths that would’ve occurred anyway, or that occurred because of that, but the patient also had Covid so that has been put as the cause of death. 

[gizmoman]

9 minutes ago, chuckles07 said:

Yes but as i understand it these are not the stats that are used in the daily briefing for the national comparisons nor are they being used in most of the headlines and discussion. If the deceased person hasn't been tested as having the virus they are not included in the calculations that WHO use.

Yes the daily figures are only of use to see the trend and only include those in hospital, they are not an accurate number of those who have died from it, as you say there will never be a precise number as doctors are putting covid19 on the death certificates without any test, there just needs to be the symptoms, and they are quiet common. Some will have died from it and some from other causes. My point is despite this lack of accuracy in the reporting the deaths will eventually be recorded and we will see the difference over the 5 year average and so can calculate the effect of the disease.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s in the data, just delayed. If anything Covid is over represented. A guy on the BBC this morning was explaining deaths from things like heart attacks and strokes are down by quite significant percentages. Reason being Covid is being given for the cause of death as replacement for a lot of deaths that would’ve occurred anyway, or that occurred because of that, but the patient also had Covid so that has been put as the cause of death. 

yes, it's in here...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

[SwedgeAntilles]

3 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Is there still general acceptable to the Swedish strategy? On the one hand your figures are much worst than your near neighbours, but of course much better than much of Europe. 

I'd say it's being tolerated, rather than accepted. There's plenty of criticism of it but ultimately there's been no surprises, the PM said weeks back that deaths would be in the thousands rather than hundreds. 

[Lycra]

2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s in the data, just delayed. If anything Covid is over represented. A guy on the BBC this morning was explaining deaths from things like heart attacks and strokes are down by quite significant percentages. Reason being Covid is being given for the cause of death as replacement for a lot of deaths that would’ve occurred anyway, or that occurred because of that, but the patient also had Covid so that has been put as the cause of death. 

The reason Covid is being ascribed as the cause of death is that it is literally finishing off people who are living with acute, chronic and ultimately fatal conditions. It is cutting lives short by days, weeks and months in some cases, and years for others.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Lycra said:

The reason Covid is being ascribed as the cause of death is that it is literally finishing off people who are living with acute, chronic and ultimately fatal conditions. It is cutting lives short by days, weeks and months in some cases, and years for others.

Yes of course, but it stands to reason that if deaths from heart attacks were down something like 40% in March, then most of those missing deaths are still actually happening but the cause is being given as corona if that was present in the unfortunate person. I’m not in any way dismissing the seriousness of it, but there is no way deaths are being under recorded for it, compared to every other single cause of death it’s being over recorded comparatively. That article that Stevie posted above is interesting, because it explains that even when we get a shocking death of a 13 year old from Covid, more often than not it it runs out they had a significant underlying condition which in reality was a greater contributing factor to the cause of death. With regards to care homes, all deaths are registered in the country and cause is given, deaths aren’t getting covered up in care homes, they’re being recorded like any other, there is just a lag with them going into the figures.

[steviewevie]

the 13 year old had no know health conditions...it was the 18 year old from Coventry.

But, anyway...it is mixed and not clear cut. People who were probably going to die soon are dying a bit earlier from coronavirus. I expect some in govt would rather save the economy crashing over prolonging the life of people who are going to die soon anyway...but that would be unpalatable to the general public.

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

the 13 year old had no know health conditions...it was the 18 year old from Coventry.

But, anyway...it is mixed and not clear cut. People who were probably going to die soon are dying a bit earlier from coronavirus. I expect some in govt would rather save the economy crashing over prolonging the life of people who are going to die soon anyway...but that would be unpalatable to the general public.

In some quarters that's probably true. One medic did say to me "it's as if god's having a clear out of the sick"

[Matt42]

One of my long time friends, early twenties, no pre-existing health conditions was admitted to hospital today and tested positive. Scary day  

Problems breathing and a seriously high heart rate. 

[Wellyboot]

So sorry to hear that Matt  I really hope that your friend will be ok

One of my boyfriend's friends was admitted to hospital a week or so ago, struggling to breathe. He was in for 4 days and then he came back home.  So I will keep everything crossed for your friend and hope they come home soon

[sisco]

5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

One of my long time friends, early twenties, no pre-existing health conditions was admitted to hospital today and tested positive. Scary day  

Problems breathing and a seriously high heart rate. 

Sorry to hear that mate. Fingers crossed he makes a full recovery.

One of my best friends brother (early 30’s) passed away from it.  He did have pre existing medical conditions so he wasn’t high priority enough for a ventilator.  Horrific times.   
 

Becoming too close to home

Edited April 16, 2020 by sisco

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

One of my long time friends, early twenties, no pre-existing health conditions was admitted to hospital today and tested positive. Scary day  

Problems breathing and a seriously high heart rate. 

wow, all the best to your friend.

[Matt42]

Thank you guys x

[zahidf]

Sorry to hear that. All the best 

[Bisque]

Why are some European festivals still selling tickets like Sziget? Surely they must know they will have to cancel... surely?

[Old_Johno]

3 minutes ago, Bisque said:

Why are some European festivals still selling tickets like Sziget? Surely they must know they will have to cancel... surely?

Boomtown is still selling tickets too, that’s a 2 month build so I guess they will be announcing it’s cancelled soon.

I don’t know how the law works in terms of limiting losses/ cancelling things that could still happen ‘on paper’. Until we’re told nothing will be happening all summer then there’s people who’s job is to carry on as usual.

[Bisque]

7 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

Boomtown is still selling tickets too, that’s a 2 month build so I guess they will be announcing it’s cancelled soon.

I don’t know how the law works in terms of limiting losses/ cancelling things that could still happen ‘on paper’. Until we’re told nothing will be happening all summer then there’s people who’s job is to carry on as usual.

That’s the other fest I’ve been curious about too.  I’ve was invited to go this year with a regular attendee who has an early bird ticket, I couldn’t last year as I went to Sziget (same week/weekend), I heard the weather was pony so wasn’t fussed.

No chance of any UK camping weekend fest being moved back to later in the year due to the weather.

edit: I hadn’t considered workers & employees, good point.

edit 2: just noticed Sziget has cut prices across all types of entry tickets. I think that’s a bit naughty enticing people to buy tickets to an event that likely won’t happen.

What is R&L doing?

Edited April 16, 2020 by Bisque

[Matt42]

16 minutes ago, Bisque said:

Why are some European festivals still selling tickets like Sziget? Surely they must know they will have to cancel... surely?

I imagine some festivals have to operate a “until we are forced to close we have to carry on as usual policy”. I imagine there is work going on behind the scenes to prepare though.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I wouldn’t say its inconceivable that R&L goes ahead still, it’s four months away, we’ve not been in lockdown for four weeks yet. A lot of water under the bridge between now and then and it’s not exactly one that takes a while to set up.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton