U.S. Presidential Election

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

She loses PA it will all be about picking Walz over Shapiro.

[FloopFiller]

18 minutes ago, MilkyJoe said:

Hopefully you’re right. If he does lose this I think the party is going to wash their hands of him pretty quickly. He will of course bitch about it for years but hopefully from his care home.

Yeah I’m really curious to see where the GOP go from here if he loses. Their front runner candidates for 2028 are presumably the likes of DeSantis or Vance at this point, but they both have the stink of MAGA on them which seems like a dumb idea given the country will’ve rejected that twice.
 

My bold prediction is if Harris wins then the Republicans are pretty much f**ked for at least one more election cycle and they’re gonna have to work to shed almost everything MAGA and attempt to rebuild in to a normal, non-batshit party again, which is gonna be no mean feat given how far they’ve fallen and how much their base has embraced the sheer lunacy of Trump. 

[FloopFiller]

Seeing a lot more positive polls for Harris from reliable sources since early voting started, and also seeing a lot less confidence from right wing Twitter people. Think they’re beginning to see the writing on the wall, and Trump already starting with his lawsuits and accusations of cheating makes it seem like he’s seeing numbers that he isn’t liking.

 

 

[FloopFiller]

Not that it should be any surprise, but Republican backed spoiler polls are heavily swaying polling in Trump’s favour. All part of the greater effort to claim it as rigged when Harris trounces him:

 

 

[steviewevie]

Dangerous incendiary bullshit from Vance...are muslims really going to vote for Trump...?

 

[steviewevie]

 

[maelzoid]

The only thing that makes me think Trump has any chance at all, is the polling. All the fundamentals point to Harris. And I am now more inclined to think the polls are purposefully skewed towards a close race. Polling is a business and the profits are not in accuracy, the profits are in repeat business, so the closer they are, the more likely they are to get attention for the next poll two weeks down the line. 

 

There's a scene in the The Big Short where they interrogate a ratings agency, and are told that if the agencies don't rate the financial products very highly, nobody will pay for their ratings, so they just rate them highly, regardless of accuracy. I think the same principle is happening here. Whatever happens, loads of people will accuse them of inaccuracy anyway, so they may as well make some coin. Four years later, most people have forgotten who said what, and they just say their model has been improved, and so the cycle continues.

 

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

The only thing that makes me think Trump has any chance at all, is the polling. All the fundamentals point to Harris. And I am now more inclined to think the polls are purposefully skewed towards a close race. Polling is a business and the profits are not in accuracy, the profits are in repeat business, so the closer they are, the more likely they are to get attention for the next poll two weeks down the line. 

 

There's a scene in the The Big Short where they interrogate a ratings agency, and are told that if the agencies don't rate the financial products very highly, nobody will pay for their ratings, so they just rate them highly, regardless of accuracy. I think the same principle is happening here. Whatever happens, loads of people will accuse them of inaccuracy anyway, so they may as well make some coin. Four years later, most people have forgotten who said what, and they just say their model has been improved, and so the cycle continues.

 

See, I think a lot of the fundamentals point to Trump...because of inflation and cost of living during Biden's term, and as has been seen elsewhere (like here) that means the incumbent gets kicked out, and also there has been a move to a populist right all over the place too. The big counter to that is the abortion thing, which if enough women vote could swing it for her.

Would be interesting if a more moderate candidate than Trump would have done better, Haley for example.

Also if a different candidate to Harris, someone more distant from Biden, would have done better for Democrats.

Edited 2 hours ago by steviewevie

[lost]

10 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

The only thing that makes me think Trump has any chance at all, is the polling. All the fundamentals point to Harris. And I am now more inclined to think the polls are purposefully skewed towards a close race. Polling is a business and the profits are not in accuracy, the profits are in repeat business, so the closer they are, the more likely they are to get attention for the next poll two weeks down the line.

 

I havent got a clue. From what I can see both sides appear to be convinced they are going to win easily. I wonder if its the algorithms on social media and the internet where we all see things that match our point of view and reinforce it.

[steviewevie]

I think the polls show that it's close, and so no one knows...and people on both sides have their own take. I am not as cynical as some about some of the polls, pretty much all show it to be within a margin of error, Trump was beating Biden especially after that tv debate, then Harris came in and everyone got excited and she took the lead, the tv debate helped her also, and then since that honeymoon period ended Trump has been clawing back and now it looks a tie.

So, could come down to a few thousand votes in certain states/counties.

Or...it's all fake news and it's going to be a Harris/Trump landslide.

[maelzoid]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

See, I think a lot of the fundamentals point to Trump...because of inflation and cost of living during Biden's term, and as has been seen elsewhere (like here) that means the incumbent gets kicked out, and also that has been a move to a populist right all over the place too. The big counter to that is the abortion thing, which if enough women vote could swing it for her.

Would be interesting if a more moderate candidate than Trump would have done better, Haley for example.

Also if a different candidate to Harris, someone more distant from Biden, would have done better for Democrats.

 

Inflation in the US now at 2.1%. Employment at an all time high. Stock markets at all time highs. Fundamentals are actually very good for the incumbent. Although I do appreciate that this has not necessarily transmitted to the everyday citizen yet who are definitely still hurting, and it is all about the messaging around it, which has been far from perfect.

As for a more moderate Republican...? Maybe.... but that's not the world we live in right now. If anyone other than Trump was on the ticket everything would be different.

[maelzoid]

The other thing about polling is that I think they ask the wrong question. They ask 'who would you vote for?' and work from there. I think in this election especially, the number of undecideds is relatively low. But the real question they should ask is 'How likely are you to actually vote?' And this is hard to quantify, because I think a lot of people actually decide on the day, and it comes down to crazy stuff like the weather, or how long the queues are.

 

My feeling is that loads of people who are would-be Trump voters are less motivated than would-be Harris voters to get out and vote. This is the exact opposite of 2016, when the Trump voters were fired up, and the Clinton voters were more apathetic.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

 

Inflation in the US now at 2.1%. Employment at an all time high. Stock markets at all time highs. Fundamentals are actually very good for the incumbent. Although I do appreciate that this has not necessarily transmitted to the everyday citizen yet who are definitely still hurting, and it is all about the messaging around it, which has been far from perfect.

As for a more moderate Republican...? Maybe.... but that's not the world we live in right now. If anyone other than Trump was on the ticket everything would be different.

well yeah, but as you say does the average voter, especially those on lower wages, notice that? Stuff in shops has been rising faster than their wages and they feel poorer than when Biden got in. 

Anyway, it is millions of voters voting for a multitude of different reasons, but I'm still sticking to my prediction of Harris winning popular vote but Trump winning electoral college...and I really hope I'm wrong because I think a Trump 2nd term will have a lot of disastrous consequences.

[Kurosagi]

Were US pollsters always so partisan or is this a noticeable development during this particular election cycle?

[steviewevie]

538 did this on polls the other day

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality - ABC News

[steviewevie]

 

[Kurosagi]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

 

Not got enough time to watch that, but do they answer the key question of whether women traditionally vote earlier or whether this is a new development for 2024?