U.S. Presidential Election

[lazyred]

I wonder if the pro abortion amendments helped Trump. 8 out of 10 look like they will pass. Florida has a majority but needs 60%. In those states you could vote for Trump and for abortion rights

[FloopFiller]

22 minutes ago, lost said:

 

On twitter this has got the conspiracies over 2020 going again:

 

 

Yeah I’ve seen this starting to brew, and to be fair, can you blame them? Where the f**k have those fifteen million people gone? Did people just forget what a threat Trump is?

[Alvoram]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

The silver linings:

 

- The Dems might win the House

- The Dems will probably win the Senate in ‘26

- Trump can’t possibly follow through on policies like mass deportation

They thought Hitler couldn't possibly follow through on his promises... 

[FloopFiller]

There’s literally nothing stopping Trump from doing whatever he wants this time. Got all of the government sectors on lock and no longer has any of the sensible people surrounding him to tell him no - just sycophants and yes men. Who knows if he’ll go totally scorched earth, but he easily could if he wanted. ‘Dictator on day one’ etc. 

[Nicklord]

Democrats ran a very poor campaign. Kamala dominated Trump in their debate and failed to capitalize on that. That's how big of a fumble this was.

 

A lot of people vote for Trump because they think he's one of the boys (doesn't matter that it's the opposite) who understands people and will fix everything easily. Kamala ran a campaign that was built on vague policies, not addressing the biggest thing people care about in the USA right now - the cost of living.

 

I think it really came down to the fact that Trump seems genuine to a lot of people and Democrats don't. It absolutely doesn't matter that Trump is a rapist, a fraud, and a failed businessman. People do things and vote based on vibes in a lot of cases.

Edited 2 hours ago by Nicklord

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, lost said:

 

On twitter this has got the conspiracies over 2020 going again:

 

 

2020 only one with a white man running for Democrats, and with Trump as the incumbent.

[FloopFiller]

Still crazy that Trump has got more or less the exact same amount of votes this time and yet he won both the popular vote and electoral college after losing both last time. This is fully on Dems not turning up - no other way to chalk it up. 

[FloopFiller]

12 minutes ago, Nicklord said:

Democrats ran a very poor campaign. Kamala dominated Trump in their debate and failed to capitalize on that. That's how big of a fumble this was.

 

A lot of people vote for Trump because they think he's one of the boys (doesn't matter that it's the opposite) who understands people and will fix everything easily. Kamala ran a campaign that was built on vague policies, not addressing the biggest thing people care about in the USA right now - the cost of living.

 

I think it really came down to the fact that Trump seems genuine to a lot of people and Democrats don't. It absolutely doesn't matter that Trump is a rapist, a fraud, and a failed businessman. People do things and vote based on vibes in a lot of cases.

Think she could’ve run a perfect campaign and it still wouldn’t have mattered. I said when she took over that she was gonna get trounced due to America being too racist and sexist but then saw the enthusiasm and changed my tune. Turns out I was right to begin with. 
 

 

[maelzoid]

I'm so thoroughly depressed by this. I called it totally wrong, although my feeling that the polls were inherently wrong seems to be accurate, but not the way I hoped.

 

There will be loads of opinions about what the cause was. I don't think any one thing done by the Dems would have affected the outcome and Biden would have lost as well. The dem race was almost inconsequential - the people want what Trump is selling regardless of the alternatives. 

 

I remain convinced that Trump has neither the will nor the capability to brings any meaningful prosperity to the people and ultimately we are looking at a dystopian future for western democracies. 

 

Also. Ukraine is f**ked. Palestine is f**ked. The climate is f**ked. And I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan gets f**ked too in the next four years. 

 

I see no upside to this.

[steviewevie]

I guess it was simple in the end...main issues for voters were economy, immigration and crime...and Trump kept going on about these and saying he will fix it. Harris was representing the incumbent, was largely unknown until the summer so time was against her, and was stuck between defending Biden's record and defining herself as change. 

Trump gets away with saying some outrageous and unpleasant stuff that no one would be able to, he is treated like a big magic anti-woke cartoon character. 

There is another factor, he is a man, a big man, plays into the strong man thing...and maybe a lot of people think that is who is needed.

Personally I think we need more women in charge, but I am a woke liberal loser. 

[maelzoid]

Anyway... thanks to all the regulars on this chat for sharing their insights and good humour, predictions; both painfully accurate and wildly optimistic. This has been a relatively sane place to discuss this. I'll be back to fretting about ticket day now...

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

I'm so thoroughly depressed by this. I called it totally wrong, although my feeling that the polls were inherently wrong seems to be accurate, but not the way I hoped.

 

There will be loads of opinions about what the cause was. I don't think any one thing done by the Dems would have affected the outcome and Biden would have lost as well. The dem race was almost inconsequential - the people want what Trump is selling regardless of the alternatives. 

 

I remain convinced that Trump has neither the will nor the capability to brings any meaningful prosperity to the people and ultimately we are looking at a dystopian future for western democracies. 

 

Also. Ukraine is f**ked. Palestine is f**ked. The climate is f**ked. And I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan gets f**ked too in the next four years. 

 

I see no upside to this.

Yeah, have to see with those foreign issues. Trump is kind of isolationist, and has said he wants to end the war in Ukraine with a deal straight away. What that means in reality who knows, a unilateral deal forced on Ukraine? Treat the war as a Russian civil war, not as Russia invading a separate state? I don't know...but Kiev will be worried. There will be pressure from NATO/EU to continue to support Ukraine, but we'll see. With Palestine apparently he told Netanyahu he wants Gaza resolved before he gets into office, and I expect he really wants to avoid any conflict between Israel and Iran. So, maybe there will be something, but not sure if Palestinians will get much say. As for climate, I expect he will pull out of COP, but Biden has already kick started a lot of green infrastructure with a lot of investment in Republican states, so maybe there can still be progress...but withdrawing from COP will reduce incentives for other countries to stick to any targets.

Edited 2 hours ago by steviewevie

[Henrik]

27 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

I'm so thoroughly depressed by this. 

[kalifire]

1 hour ago, Alvoram said:

They thought Hitler couldn't possibly follow through on his promises... 

 

I still think that comparison is hysterical and very unhelpful to the left. 

[charlierc]

4 hours ago, Alvoram said:

I've always felt that remain lost because the result was presumed. People were living in a bubble and not listening to their neighbours or their concerns, far too many people thought that leave had no chance, especially after all of the c*ck ups on the leave campaign trail. I've always felt that this led to many remainers not feeling the need to turn out. 

Never looked it up, but would be interesting to see if any polls were done amongst people who, verifiably, didn't vote, and what their vote would have been. 

I don't strictly know if the data has ever been collated for this but I did clock turnout in the 2016 referendum was around 72% or something? So it's possible in the 28% of the eligible electorate are 2 million voters who could've voted Remain, didn't, and regret it ever since.

 

Saying that, the referendum had a higher turnout than any 21st century UK Parliamentary election, so any regrets probably didn't translate itself to resolving to do better.

[charlierc]

37 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Still crazy that Trump has got more or less the exact same amount of votes this time and yet he won both the popular vote and electoral college after losing both last time. This is fully on Dems not turning up - no other way to chalk it up. 

It's the same with the missing Tory voters here that opened the door for a Labour landslide in July - just a lot of people who seemed to just not want to support the cause going missing.

[charlierc]

37 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

I'm so thoroughly depressed by this. I called it totally wrong, although my feeling that the polls were inherently wrong seems to be accurate, but not the way I hoped.

 

There will be loads of opinions about what the cause was. I don't think any one thing done by the Dems would have affected the outcome and Biden would have lost as well. The dem race was almost inconsequential - the people want what Trump is selling regardless of the alternatives. 

 

I remain convinced that Trump has neither the will nor the capability to brings any meaningful prosperity to the people and ultimately we are looking at a dystopian future for western democracies. 

 

Also. Ukraine is f**ked. Palestine is f**ked. The climate is f**ked. And I wouldn't be surprised if Taiwan gets f**ked too in the next four years. 

 

I see no upside to this.

Only upside is that given how quick the last 4 years have gone, it'll be 2028 before you know it and he can't run again. And if he does decide he's too important to abide by the 2 term limits thing, he'll be older than Biden was now so there's an argument he probably will have to be ushered aside.

 

Though that will be a test as to what strength in depth that cause has. Or if anyone can be somehow capable of evading consequence to even a tenth of the times that arse has.

Edited 2 hours ago by charlierc

[FloopFiller]

3 minutes ago, kalifire said:

 

I still think that comparison is hysterical and very unhelpful to the left. 

After nine years of them calling him Hitler it really has lost all meaning and effect and I’m surprised they continue to run with it so recently. Yes, he seemingly showed admiration for some of Hitler workings, but people didn’t care at the comparison in 2016 so not sure why they thought people would care now. 

[FloopFiller]

 

[maelzoid]

4 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

After nine years of them calling him Hitler it really has lost all meaning and effect and I’m surprised they continue to run with it so recently. Yes, he seemingly showed admiration for some of Hitler workings, but people didn’t care at the comparison in 2016 so not sure why they thought people would care now. 

I actually think the comparisons are fair in a lot of ways, his grasp of populist rhetoric and demonising of minorities and the intelligentsia is straight from the Hitler playbook. But trump has yet to show any desire to conquer and ethnic cleanse. 

But you're right inasmuch it is meaningless now. I mean, if his own VP already called him Hitler and its laughed off, the whole idea becomes a joke. 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

After nine years of them calling him Hitler it really has lost all meaning and effect and I’m surprised they continue to run with it so recently. Yes, he seemingly showed admiration for some of Hitler workings, but people didn’t care at the comparison in 2016 so not sure why they thought people would care now. 

It was people in his last administration who were saying this 

[MilkyJoe]

8 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

 

11pm UK time.

[Alvoram]

26 minutes ago, kalifire said:

 

I still think that comparison is hysterical and very unhelpful to the left. 

Sorry, I wasn't intending to make the comparison between the two people, as has already been done several times. I was comparing similarities in the way people think about their policy ideas. Particularly the fact that people thought Hitler would never carry out the unthinkable acts, he'd promised to carry out, on the Jewish population, never mind actually carry out much worse in the end. They thought the constitution would prevent it. That's where the similarities I was pointing out lie.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Alvoram

[steviewevie]

So...that Selzer poll..??

[FloopFiller]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

So...that Selzer poll..??

Yeah, insanely off, as we’re almost all of the rest. In fact, the only ones that seemed to get it right were the right wing polls that I’ve been disparaging all along. Trump is just such an enigma that pollsters and political experts have just been totally left in the dirt by him nonstop. Truly one of a kind.