U.S. Presidential Election

[Guest]

This is fun  

[FloorFiller]

Just now, Ozanne said:

This is fun  

Eh, I’m not quite at ‘fun’ yet 😄

[Guest]

Just now, FloorFiller said:

Eh, I’m not quite at ‘fun’ yet 😄

I just love an election.

[Kurosagi]

Just now, FloorFiller said:

Eh, I’m not quite at ‘fun’ yet 😄

Fuck it, I've been in a pig in shit for hours, love this stuff!

[Kurosagi]

This is a bit confusingly written, but I think it's a positive insight into the Biden gains in the suburbs? If so, and if it stands up, I wonder if what we're seeing is a lot more women deserting Trump in 2020?

David Siders
National political correspondent

3:16 a.m.

A little Minnesota update here. Nearly 90 percent of precincts are in Anoka County, a big suburban Twin Cities county that went for Trump by about 10 points in 16 before Tim Walz carried in narrowly in 18. I figured if the result was closer to 2018 levels than 2016 levels, it would be good news for Biden. He’s losing it by about 1 point, which is squarely in the 2018 lane. That suggests the problem Trump is having in outer-ring suburbs

[Fuzzy Afro]

Trump ahead in Biden’s hometown 

[Guest]

Arizona looking really good for Biden.

[ModernMan]

Think it’s trending badly for Biden now to be honest. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Arizona looking really good for Biden.

Yep, he’s miles ahead. Can Trump even win without Arizona? 

[Kurosagi]

Okay, hadn't realised that the advance polls had Trump 5 pts up in Ohio. So what this economist guy is saying is that his model that predicts a Biden win (92%) is holding up.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Kurosagi said:

Okay, hadn't realised that the advance polls had Trump 5 pts up in Ohio. So what this economist guy is saying is that his model that predicts a Biden win (92%) is holding up.

This is what I've been saying! The swing of the vote towards Biden is large.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Michigan looking good for the Donald 

[Kurosagi]

This is what I was expecting to hear more of this evening as I simply don't trust Trump to accept losing and so was anticipating him making an early call. Has anyone watching non CNN feeds picked up any chatter on this 'Red Mirage Scenario' yet?

Charlie Mahtesian
Senior politics editor

3:31 a.m.

Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren’t reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose that route.

[Kurosagi]

So whilst the adverts are on, let's speculate a hypothetical. If Trump wins this election legitimately against the odds, do we put this down to 'shy' trump voter effect (still have nightmares about Kinnock losing against the odds) and do we think things are more or less likely to kick off in the days/weeks to come?

Nancy Cook
White House reporter

3:36 a.m.

One Trump adviser tells me folks starting to feel cautiously optimistic – though we still have a ways to go. For the past 1.5 weeks, they have started to feel much better about increase in Republican voter registrations, attendance at rallies from people who did not vote Republican or for Trump in 2016 and their ability to turn-out votes.

[Matt42]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yep, he’s miles ahead. Can Trump even win without Arizona? 

Yes trump can win without Arizona or even Nevada 

[Matt42]

Red Wave coming

[Fuzzy Afro]

Trump performing well in areas hit hard by covid 🙄

[mikegday]

Morning guys - it’s going to be ok right? I’m thinking very narrow but still think we’ll see end of Trump in Jan.

[Kurosagi]

2 minutes ago, mikegday said:

Morning guys - it’s going to be ok right? I’m thinking very narrow but still think we’ll see end of Trump in Jan.

I think what he's saying is that it's all still to play for!

[FloorFiller]

1 minute ago, mikegday said:

Morning guys - it’s going to be ok right? I’m thinking very narrow but still think we’ll see end of Trump in Jan.

I’m still optimistic. Only thing is that by the end of tonight there’s a good chance Trump will be in the lead, with Bidens lead coming in the next few days due to postal voting, which is exactly what Trump was seemingly hoping for so that he can claim victory early/dispute the late tally. 

[sime]

Trump will see the on the night results which do favour him and declare himself the winner. But, not all of the early postal votes will have been fully counted until tomorrow (and a few days from now in some cases). Biden is doing well with the early postal votes so he could very well end up actually winning. Which of course, Trump will contest. Then things will start to get really messy... However, the final results cannot lie. Which although may not be in Trump's favour, he will not be able to discount. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Biden supporter having an absolute meltdown on 5 live 😂😂😂

[Fuzzy Afro]

I think it all comes down to Pennsylvania. Trump can lose Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan and just hold on by the skin of his teeth. But he needs Penn. 

[Kurosagi]

1 minute ago, FloorFiller said:

I’m still optimistic. Only thing is that by the end of tonight there’s a good chance Trump will be in the lead, with Bidens lead coming in the next few days due to postal voting, which is exactly what Trump was seemingly hoping for so that he can claim victory early/dispute the late tally. 

When you say "by the end of tonight" when do you speculate that to be? I can't see myself being happy to go to bed until the time for Trump to make his move and come and gone...trying to work out how many more rum and cokes I need to keep me going.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, sime said:

Trump will see the on the night results which do favour him and declare himself the winner. But, not all of the early postal votes will have been fully counted until tomorrow (and a few days from now in some cases). Biden is doing well with the early postal votes so he could very well end up actually winning. Which of course, Trump will contest. Then things will start to get really messy... However, the final results cannot lie. Which although may not be in Trump's favour, he will not be able to discount. 

Especially as Pennsylvania will be key for early postal votes.