U.S. Presidential Election

[squirrelarmy]

Should be a large section of Arizona votes coming in very soon. 

The gap has been shrinking there and this will chunk of votes will probably be the deciding factor if Trump has a chance there or Biden takes it. 
 

 

[Reckoner]

The last batch of votes in AZ broke Trumps way 61-49 catching up 13k. The next lot of votes will be telling as it's coming from the biggest county and he needs to keep catching at that rate. If it breaks more even i'd be confident of keeping AZ 

GA is super close, but they seem to be down to the last batches of votes. It's been going 79-21 today and is down to a gap of 22k but there isn't much data out there about remaining vote. The last interview at Fulton County seemed to indicate they were close to finishing and it's been tweeted that DeKalb County has finished. Without those two, i think we'll just fall short.

None of that might matter though with PA. Apparently 763k mail votes outstanding according to their own website (https://www.votespa.com) . From my tallys, there have only been 28k votes added today and they've broken 73-27 Biden. The current gap is 164k, but if that holds then there is more than enough still to count to make that up.

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Gregfc15
typo

[WestCountryGirl]

7 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Even though it's looking good for Biden, I have to admit that every* point @Matt42 made was right. The shy Trump voters just ignored the polls entirely, despite all attempts to identify them, they just disengaged from the whole process. All of it about your gut, was pretty much correct, even if Trump doesn't actually win. And we (very much including myself) didn't believe you. Credit where it's due.

*Apart from California, of course. That was bonkers. It was like suggesting Emile Sandé would headline the Pyramid. We all have our moments!

Upvoted because gracious admissions of wrong-ness are what we need to see at this time.

I was thinking yesterday that the pollsters/statisticians must have to be taking a long, hard look at themselves. Again. I know some were saying they had adjusted for those not engaging, but they were still so way off. Again!

[squirrelarmy]

News in from Arizona. 
 

Biden has 51% of the vote from the largest county. Trump needed about 55% to have a chance of taking the State. 
 

It’s close but doesn’t look like Trump is closing enough. 

[Hugh Jass]

9 hours ago, ShakeyCrash said:

What time in the morning exactly?

I’m up now.

Carry on.

[FloorFiller]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

News in from Arizona. 
 

Biden has 51% of the vote from the largest county. Trump needed about 55% to have a chance of taking the State. 
 

It’s close but doesn’t look like Trump is closing enough. 

No more info from AZ/the remaining county until the morning/about 3pm for us now, but looks like it’s really gonna be a tight race. Hopefully comes up in Bidens favour, if only because a Trump win in AZ would give him more reason to contest results considering many media sources called AZ for Biden yesterday. 

God I hope we get a blue sweep across the remaining states. Bidens almost definitely got this, but would be sweet if he absolutely pummelled Trump in the electoral college, even if it is only by small margins.

[steviewevie]

So...anyone won this thing yet? I have a tenner resting on it.

[FloorFiller]

Just now, steviewevie said:

So...anyone won this thing yet? I have a tenner resting on it.

Kanye came back swinging and secured the presidency. I assume your money was on him, right?

[squirrelarmy]

There’s not going to be any major news now for a while. 
 

Wonder why Alaska is taking so long. Are they trying to find someone there to do the counting who hasn’t lost most of their fingers to frostbite? 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

 

Wonder why Alaska is taking so long. Are they trying to find someone there to do the counting who hasn’t lost most of their fingers to frostbite? 

I don't know, Alaska.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, steviewevie said:

I don't know, Alaska.

Time zone issue? Deffo Republican though I assume?

[steviewevie]

Be funny if Trump ended up winning.

[jump]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Time zone issue? Deffo Republican though I assume?

Alaska is only a hour difference to California but it's going to the Republican and is only three points so it's not a huge deal.

[parsonjack]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Be funny if Trump ended up winning.

It'll be even funnier when he doesn't.

Edited November 5, 2020 by parsonjack

[danbailey80]

31 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

News in from Arizona. 
 

Biden has 51% of the vote from the largest county. Trump needed about 55% to have a chance of taking the State. 
 

It’s close but doesn’t look like Trump is closing enough. 

This is big news. Come on, Arizona. 

[squirrelarmy]

[steviewevie]

7 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Even though it's looking good for Biden, I have to admit that every* point @Matt42 made was right. The shy Trump voters just ignored the polls entirely, despite all attempts to identify them, they just disengaged from the whole process. All of it about your gut, was pretty much correct, even if Trump doesn't actually win. And we (very much including myself) didn't believe you. Credit where it's due.

*Apart from California, of course. That was bonkers. It was like suggesting Emile Sandé would headline the Pyramid. We all have our moments!

Mad how the pollsters got it so wrong again....they were so consistent throughout...and were fairly confident they had this right, infact some thought they were putting too much weight on shy/rural trump voters and would end up a bigger landslide for Biden than predicted.

[jparx]

So managed to get an awesome night sleep and feeling energised for another day of this. PA is going to Biden looking at the votes outstanding. If we get that confirmed at some point today, it’s game over regardless of question marks over Arizona and Nevada. 

Still rooting for Georgia as well, but it’s not too clear to me how many votes are left to be counted. Obviously more than the gap between them otherwise it would be called, but is it enough for Biden to realistically take 70 odd percent?

Edited November 5, 2020 by jparx

[jparx]

Ignore

Edited November 5, 2020 by jparx

[jparx]

BBC are such fucking nerds. Why have they not called Wisconsin? They’re buying in to Trump’s bullshit. A recount is NOT going to swing the vote 10K in his favour. Get a grip!

Edited November 5, 2020 by jparx

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, jparx said:

Still rooting for Georgia as well, but it’s not too clear to me how many votes are left to be counted. Obviously more than the gap between them otherwise it would be called, but is it enough for Biden to realistically take 70 odd percent?

Biden has been getting about 75% of the late votes from Georgia. Won’t get more news for quite a few hours. 
 

Won’t be more news from Arizona and Nevada until they wake up again. It’s going to be a very quiet day until this afternoon. 
 

Probably will be recounts in at least 3 states. 

[Matt42]

7 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Even though it's looking good for Biden, I have to admit that every* point @Matt42 made was right. The shy Trump voters just ignored the polls entirely, despite all attempts to identify them, they just disengaged from the whole process. All of it about your gut, was pretty much correct, even if Trump doesn't actually win. And we (very much including myself) didn't believe you. Credit where it's due.

*Apart from California, of course. That was bonkers. It was like suggesting Emile Sandé would headline the Pyramid. We all have our moments!

Aw this was nice to wake up and read this, thanks.

Looking at the data I’d say though that both arguments appear to be correct (in some strange way).

Yes Biden did smash it - a lot of people came out to vote for him. He’s going to have the highest vote count of any president ever.

BUT (and it’s a big but)

People underestimated how many people were coming out to vote for Trump too. It seems like both candidates performed well, trump just over performed. 

[Matt42]

8 minutes ago, jparx said:

So managed to get an awesome night sleep and feeling energised for another day of this. PA is going to Biden looking at the votes outstanding. If we get that confirmed at some point today, it’s game over regardless of question marks over Arizona and Nevada. 

Still rooting for Georgia as well, but it’s not too clear to me how many votes are left to be counted. Obviously more than the gap between them otherwise it would be called, but is it enough for Biden to realistically take 70 odd percent?

Yeah I went to bed early last night because I was absolutely knackered, I’m trying to see if I’ve missed anything?

[fatyeti24]

[jump]

 

I found this results map based on people who voted rather than land interesting.