U.S. Presidential Election

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mcshed said:

As I say I'm not really trying to single out Matt he has been mostly pretty sensible he has also been the most clear voice against the polling which is why I used him.

There is a big anti-polling reaction to this result which I think is unfair and I'm trying to stick up for them a bit.

We should also give credit to people that have used their own time to find information for others on here to support their argument and help others understand what’s going on. 

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I agree. I'm not going to start going with my gut instead of trying to reason things out, but in this case Matt's gut (and lots of actual reasons, not just a gut feel) actually contained lots of useful information. To ignore that information would to be act as irrationally as we were accusing him of being before the election.

TBF, whilst Matt turned out to be right in a few respects ( fairplay to him) he ruined it by saying Trump was going to win california

[squirrelarmy]

Main concern now is that the results can be counted peacefully. There’s large numbers of Trump fans outside where they are counting in Arizona. Wouldn’t surprise me if the other close states also attract the same level of protest. 
 

Once Biden is confirmed then will hope things calm down especially if it’s a decisive result. 

[Matt42]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

TBF, whilst Matt turned out to be right in a few respects ( fairplay to him) he ruined it by saying Trump was going to win california

Lol.

I mean, if you’re looking at what my gut was based on you could probably argue I just had a vibe Florida was going Red. In some ways I think I must of had a similar view to the election as Trump’s team did.

I thought Florida was going red, and usually who gets Florida gets the White House. This time the results are weird and closer than usual so you can see the logic.

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Main concern now is that the results can be counted peacefully. There’s large numbers of Trump fans outside where they are counting in Arizona. Wouldn’t surprise me if the other close states also attract the same level of protest. 
 

Once Biden is confirmed then will hope things calm down especially if it’s a decisive result. 

CNN (I’m sure you’re probably watching too) just showed clips of Detroit and Phoenix:

”stop the count! Stop the count”

”count the votes! Count the votes!”

What on earth has happened to humanity?!

Edited November 5, 2020 by jparx

[fatyeti24]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We should also give credit to people that have used their own time to find information for others on here to support their argument and help others understand what’s going on. 

Yeah.  Round of applause for @steviewevie, can't have been easy scouring guardian.com all day  every day  

[Guest]

About AZ:

 

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, jparx said:

CNN (I’m sure you’re probably watching too) just showed clips of Detroit and Phoenix:

”stop the count! Stop the count”

”count the votes! Count the votes!”

What on earth has happened to humanity?!

Trump voters are scumbags

 

[Matt42]

Do trump supporters realise that if they stop the count Biden still wins?

My sister put this in much less flattering terms but a lot of trumps fruitcakes really just regurgitate what Fox News throws out there. I reckon some don’t realise that if the counting stops in a state where Biden is leading, that doesn’t benefit trump.

I also saw a maga group in Florida still predicting a red wave. “Red wave babeh”. They don’t even know how their own system works. Do they even watch the news? There’s not going to be a red or even a blue wave!

Edited November 5, 2020 by Matt42

[FloorFiller]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Trump voters are scumbags

 

‘Stop the count’

’No, not that count - the one that benefits our guy!’

[ShakeyCrash]

Like most things you need to challenge and question things whether they are the polls or a gut feeling with your perception and experiences of the world. 

13 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We should also give credit to people that have used their own time to find information for others on here to support their argument and help others understand what’s going on. 

Agreed.  This helps my above point.

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Do trump supporters realise that if they stop the count Biden still wins?

My sister put this in much less flattering terms but a lot of trumps fruitcakes really just regurgitate what Fox News throws out there. I reckon some don’t realise that if the counting stops in a state where Biden is leading, that doesn’t benefit trump

They just are desperate to win and the person they look up to has condoned it.  It's shameless but that seems to have a lot of traction these days.

[philipsteak]

1 minute ago, FloorFiller said:

‘Stop the count’

 

That second 'o' isn't needed

[1986]

Worth posting this when talking about Trump supporters. 

 

 

[jump]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Trump voters are scumbags

 

That's imply both the "count the vote" and "stop the count" are all Pro-Trumpians though. They can't be stupid enough to chant count all the votes in states Trump in winning in.

[Hugh Jass]

I was going to post this satirically but it seems sadly relevant...

 

[squirrelarmy]

13 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

About AZ:

 

There’s being people posting videos of late ballots arriving so obviously the Trump fans are claiming these are all the fake democrat votes that are changing the results. Not realising that the votes from across the states are physical objects that need to be transported for counting. 

[DeanoL]

Were the polls really that wrong? Especially if Biden sweeps the remaining states.

There is still a good chance that this just feels closer than it actually is because of the weird way in which votes are being counted and the mail-in/in-person divide.

Once every vote is counted it’ll be interesting to see how close the polls were. 

[jparx]

16 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Do trump supporters realise that if they stop the count Biden still wins?

My sister put this in much less flattering terms but a lot of trumps fruitcakes really just regurgitate what Fox News throws out there. I reckon some don’t realise that if the counting stops in a state where Biden is leading, that doesn’t benefit trump.

I also saw a maga group in Florida still predicting a red wave. “Red wave babeh”. They don’t even know how their own system works. Do they even watch the news? There’s not going to be a red or even a blue wave!

They just do what their glorious leader requests. They don’t connect the dots. 

[Leyrulion]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Were the polls really that wrong? Especially if Biden sweeps the remaining states.

There is still a good chance that this just feels closer than it actually is because of the weird way in which votes are being counted and the mail-in/in-person divide.

Once every vote is counted it’ll be interesting to see how close the polls were. 

Yeah early indication seems to be that the state polls were off by 4-5%, the average error is 5% for state polls. 

But it'll be hard to know for a week or two.

[Zoo Music Girl]

57 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I have been one of the staunchest defenders of the polls and whilst I agree that they are off this time round and they are consistently being off in the same direction which looks like a systematic problem that needs work. I'm not prepared to say the polls are useless go with Matt's gut.

Matt's gut called it for Trump the polls called it for Biden. It looks like Biden will win, currently he has between a 2 and 3% popular lead before all the postal votes that weren't delivered like the courts demanded yesterday, so if you give Biden a 3% lead that is only 5% off 538's final average lead of 8% which although off isn't that bad.  Note 538's final headline was a fine line between landslide and nailbiter, we got a nailbiter it's hard to say they got it completely wrong. 

Predictions will only give you probabilities our brains deal in certainties so unless the polls are spot on we say they're wrong. They are actually further off this time than in 2016 and so they need to look at that and try and fix it but if there is another election next year (Holyrood) I'll listen to the polls before Matt's gut.

I'm not really trying to single out Matt I'm using Matt's gut to mean general people relying on vibes. 

Out of upvotes but this is pretty much exactly my thoughts. Some problems for sure, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Were the polls really that wrong? Especially if Biden sweeps the remaining states.

There is still a good chance that this just feels closer than it actually is because of the weird way in which votes are being counted and the mail-in/in-person divide.

Once every vote is counted it’ll be interesting to see how close the polls were. 

yeah, they were wrong...in states like Wisconsin they had Biden winning by a much bigger margin than he did.

I have a big problem with these polls if they're just going to keep getting things wrong, as they influence how people vote...and in the end just become the story in the lead up to the election instead of what you are actually voting for.

[Zoo Music Girl]

33 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Main concern now is that the results can be counted peacefully. There’s large numbers of Trump fans outside where they are counting in Arizona. Wouldn’t surprise me if the other close states also attract the same level of protest. 
 

Once Biden is confirmed then will hope things calm down especially if it’s a decisive result. 

What happens if a protestor gets in and damages ballots? Really hoping it won't happen but interested in what happens to the count in that case.

[the_arsonist]

17 minutes ago, 1986 said:

Worth posting this when talking about Trump supporters. 

 

 

This is absolutely mental

[Matt42]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, they were wrong...in states like Wisconsin they had Biden winning by a much bigger margin than he did.

I have a big problem with these polls if they're just going to keep getting things wrong, as they influence how people vote...and in the end just become the story in the lead up to the election instead of what you are actually voting for.

Well the polls predicted Biden to win Florida. That’s not just ‘one’ state either, it’s a crucial state in this election.

The polls also predicted Pennsylvania for Biden so we’l have to see, but I think the polls underestimated how much of a close race it would be.

[DeanoL]

When I say the polls were not that wrong, I’m talking about having results outside the margin of error. Polls essentially predict a range of results but we only ever focus on the midpoint. That’s more a factor of how the media treats polling.