Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[Leyrulion]

19 minutes ago, kalifire said:

I'm looking at the news to understand the optimism in this thread but can't make the connection. What am I missing?

Vaccinations starting imminently. New tier system conformed in place until March/Easter. 

The hope on the numbers is that the tiers will be working to keep cases low and there will be many millions vaccinated by March. By which point most places will be tier 1. 

Then with cases low and millions vaccinated, hospital admissions and deaths will be low enough to show we're clearly out of the 2nd wave. This time though we can have confidence in not having a 3rd wave due to the vaccine.

If so the tier system will be scaled back when Furlough ends. Throughout April and May restrictions such as the rule of 6 and capacity limits at events will be gradually removed.

Giving Emily and Michael confidence to continue with their plan for a 2021 Glastonbury, albeit one where you need to be tested twice before hand.

See you at the cider bus!

[Reckoner]

I suppose for those of us looking from outside of the UK, the fact that the government has shown no ability to manage anything succesfully throughout the whole pandemic means that there is little faith that they will also successfully  be able to roll out a mass vaccination program with unprecedented demand in a successful manner. Appreciate that it happens with the flu shot each year, but to a much lesser extent than this will require.

The reliance on the tier systems that have already failed is a red flag to me as well although making them clearer and stricter should help them be more beneficial. The decision makers seem to think they have some control over the virus and  that they can pull the levers and turn things on and off as required to manage its spread but they’ve shown no ability to do this in 9 months without resorting to a lockdown and it’s certainly not achievable without a good test and trace system underpinning it.

Obviously a successful vaccine roll out helps here but it’s going to be a delicate balance in trying to reduce restrictions as the vaccine program moves through the groups and keeping transmission at an acceptable rate to not overwhelm systems or create excess deaths. Again, it’s the concern at the execution of the plan that is the worry.

The common theme for me is that at any point when the government have to make a hard decision, they end up with a compromise that doesn’t solve the problem in order to avoid being seen as the bad guy, often weeks too late. Even with test and trace, rather than stick with the successful formula of isolating known contacts of positive cases to break the transmission chains, you are going to experiment with a mass-testing program using a rapid tests that have limited accuracy because asking people to self-isolate is unpopular.

I’m just not convinced that they’ve suddenly turned the corner and found the competency to pull this off.  (but I do hope to see you all at the meet up!)

 

 

 

 

[zahidf]

From parliament

Speaking at the fag end of a long Commons session, Johnson was asked bluntly by the SNP’s Carol Monaghan whether he had “an exit strategy” or was just winging it again with his new Christmas relaxation plan. He replied that he would use “tough tiering”, mass testing and a roll-out of the vaccine to keep the virus down.

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Johnson then added: “We must push it down further until such time as we are able to say that all those who are vulnerable have been vaccinated and we can move forward and go back completely to normal.” Yes, you read that right “back completely to normal”. And he went yet further: “That terminus, that end date, looks like being Easter.” 

[hfuhruhurr]

I know nothing about phase III trials and I'm no statistician so can't comment on the scarily small sample sizes and extrapolation applied in the news.

But it is 100% on.

Now, will all the people who think it's 100% off please cancel their tickets so I can have one, that'd be lovely.

[Ryan1984]

We’ve all had our issues with this government over the past few months (to say the least) but there appears to be a level of confidence and competence at the moment - helped by the Oxford vaccine team being clear and coherent. The NHS is also covering the finer details of the rollout.

Boris will also see this as a way out and will love the idea of being the man who led us through the pandemic (many of the public will forget about all the mistakes and deaths and just focus on the success of an exit strategy - think how many continue to vote this lot in).
Couple that with sports events letting fans back in and we can be a touch over cautiously optimistic.

[Chrisp1986]

Taking a different angle here as I am in the 99% its on team but what would have to happen for it NOT to be going ahead now?

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Taking a different angle here as I am in the 99% its on team but what would have to happen for it NOT to be going ahead now?

Government to f up the roll out of the vaccine is probably the most likely reason for it not going ahead now.

[balthazarstarbuck]

4 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Taking a different angle here as I am in the 99% its on team but what would have to happen for it NOT to be going ahead now?

Vaccine rollout is botched. If we’re back to normal by May, that could be too late.

Covid mutates and the vaccine becomes useless. 

We get a third wave which takes all the resources.

Happy to be shot down on these. 

 

[Memory Man]

20 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Taking a different angle here as I am in the 99% its on team but what would have to happen for it NOT to be going ahead now?

Rapid mass Testing not as wide spread available & cheap as we need to test everyone before entry. 

vaccine very unlikely to have been given to a significant % of what makes up the Glastonbury audience demographic by june so testing is massively key. I expect attendees to be able to have shown at least one negative test in the days before. Also the method of how attendees evidence said negative test (an app?) to be determined & worked through.

this is absolutely vital to allow it to go ahead in my view.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Memory Man

[Memory Man]

10 hours ago, Ozanne said:

It'll be done via testing, 2 tests in the week or so before the event, the last a day before. If both come back negative then it links to your reg and you can go. If you test positive then you don't travel to the site, you log onto Seetickets and roll your ticket to 2022. It's not fool proof and open to some element of lying but nothing's perfect and is before any vaccine has been taken into account.

So much this. If they can’t make a version of this happen in some way i dont think we’ve got a festival.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Memory Man said:

So much this. If they can’t make a version of this happen in some way i dont think we’ve got a festival.

It seems like the obvious way forward with not much additional cost needed really for the festival. With testing availability only going to improve it seems this should be something they could achieve. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

If the vulnerable are vaccinated then why do you even need mass testing? Surely if those who are higher risk to be hospitalised have been vaccinated then you can take a much more relaxed view on the virus spreading in the community 

[foolee]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

If the vulnerable are vaccinated then why do you even need mass testing? Surely if those who are higher risk to be hospitalised have been vaccinated then you can take a much more relaxed view on the virus spreading in the community 

Agreed, as not everyone every year is vaccinated for flu. 

[philipsteak]

21 hours ago, Gnomicide said:

Not sure this method works. It took me 30 years of saying Liverpool would win the league for it to happen. 

 

I'm feeling a lot more confident today. Not everyone is on board though...

I don't think I've ever been called an elite hipster before. 

[henry bear]

7 hours ago, kalifire said:

I'm looking at the news to understand the optimism in this thread but can't make the connection. What am I missing?

Bojo and Hat Mancock both declaring we’ll be back to normal by Easter, and it’s not like them to get things wrong.

[Memory Man]

38 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

If the vulnerable are vaccinated then why do you even need mass testing? Surely if those who are higher risk to be hospitalised have been vaccinated then you can take a much more relaxed view on the virus spreading in the community 

You make a valid point but that would entail the festival, licensing authorities and the government still being ok in sanctioning what could amount to a super spreader event in the unvaccinated population which is no good for society as a whole and for those who get it whilst there. Long covid is a thing!

also can you imagine the headlines “1,000 come home with covid after attending glastonbury” its not a good look for the festival. Much better to weed out the 100-200 or so potential attendees who might have it and stop them coming and spreading it. At present we are averaging what 200 cases per 100k? Ok we could be a lot lower by june but the point stands.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Memory Man

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Taking a different angle here as I am in the 99% its on team but what would have to happen for it NOT to be going ahead now?

Things don't even necessarily have to go wrong. If the speed of vaccine roll out doesn't lead to a decrease in hospitalisations and deaths as fast as hoped then it might not happen and society won't open up.

 

[Hotchilidog]

I'm confident 65/35 that it will go ahead. The vaccine news and at least the intention to have the most vulnerable protected by Jan/Feb and the rest of us by mar/April has certainly put a smile on my face.

Such is my optimism I have even started my annual ritual of watching Glastonbury YouTube vids to start firing up the excitement. Something I simply couldn't do once 2020 was cancelled.

I'd love to say 100% but until the roll out of the vaccine we cannot really say, but once it does watch that optimism level rise. Hell! who knows even Taylor may come back and really make my year!

[Gnomicide]

1 hour ago, philipsteak said:

I don't think I've ever been called an elite hipster before. 

I'm quite chuffed. Might stop wearing socks.

[xxialac]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

From parliament

Speaking at the fag end of a long Commons session, Johnson was asked bluntly by the SNP’s Carol Monaghan whether he had “an exit strategy” or was just winging it again with his new Christmas relaxation plan. He replied that he would use “tough tiering”, mass testing and a roll-out of the vaccine to keep the virus down.

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Johnson then added: “We must push it down further until such time as we are able to say that all those who are vulnerable have been vaccinated and we can move forward and go back completely to normal.” Yes, you read that right “back completely to normal”. And he went yet further: “That terminus, that end date, looks like being Easter.” 

From  the man who said the end date for Covid would be June 2020.

Step aside, Mystic Meg.

[Wooderson]

Loving the positivity on here. As per usual i'll be **that guy** and try to temper the fervor somewhat*.

Glastonbury will clearly be one of the v last large events to get approval / have wherewithall to go ahead. June to me looks too tight a timeframe given the signif blindspots we have on vacc efficacy, delivery, reliability etc. We simply don't have the admin capacity to make this work [vaccinate near entire population / create verifiable passporting / confirm immunity to a precise point in the future].

To me, 2022 looks a near certainty and will indeed resemble something close to 2019. This is hugely positive.

Even with a hugely successful vacc programme in the Spring, 2021 is still possessed of too many variables and risks.

*Married to microbiologist

[zahidf]

Health Committee

 

Q: If all vulnerable people are vaccinated by Easter, what will the social distancing rules be from then?

Hancock says it will depend on the data.

Vaccine trials can successfully test for whether they protect an individual.

In the AstraZeneca trial, there is also some evidence that it is having an impact on transmission too, he says.

But he says you cannot calibrate the impact mathematically until a large number of people have been vaccinate.

Q: Will we be back to normal after Easter?

Hancock says:

After Easter we think we will be getting back to normal.

He says some habits, like hand washing, should continue.

But he says he hopes that it will be possible to lift the damaging social distancing measures after Easter.

[Stu H]

9 hours ago, kalifire said:

I'm looking at the news to understand the optimism in this thread but can't make the connection. What am I missing?

Numerous things;

Furlough ends March. Money running out / can't bank-roll any more

Legality runs out in March, there'll be no justification for restrictions beyond then (anything will go through standard Parliamentary scrutiny, not Emergency Powers)

Vaccine roll out through Dec onwards

Country is reaching a more natural level of immunity in the population (I'm sure many have lots of thoughts on this, it's merely an opinion based on lots of reading, but please treat it as such)

 

There will simply be almost zero COVID in the UK come June.

Therefore, we party on!

[xxialac]

5 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Loving the positivity on here. As per usual i'll be **that guy** and try to temper the fervor somewhat*.

Glastonbury will clearly be one of the v last large events to get approval / have wherewithall to go ahead. June to me looks too tight a timeframe given the signif blindspots we have on vacc efficacy, delivery, reliability etc. We simply don't have the admin capacity to make this work [vaccinate near entire population / create verifiable passporting / confirm immunity to a precise point in the future].

To me, 2022 looks a near certainty and will indeed resemble something close to 2019. This is hugely positive.

Even with a hugely successful vacc programme in the Spring, 2021 is still possessed of too many variables and risks.

*Married to microbiologist

80 words and not one of them is the word 'testing'.

Testing will get us over the hurdles you mention.

[Wooderson]

9 minutes ago, xxialac said:

80 words and not one of them is the word 'testing'.

Testing will get us over the hurdles you mention.

All ears sir, please elaborate.