Will the 2021 festival go ahead?

[xxialac]

4 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

All ears sir, please elaborate.

Ok, so of course I don't know the details (didn't mean to sound so arrogant) but seems like very possible to have people show e.g. a QR code on their phone upon arrival to show PCR test completed within previous 72 hours.

By June the cost of these tests will have dropped off a cliff.

That is how some countries are handling this risk today and they are seeing this as acceptable. 

It's not perfect but it will reduce transmission.

Edited November 24, 2020 by xxialac

[eFestivals]

it's going to go ahead, barring the unexpected.

Govt is making all the right noises, and it's clear they're hoping to end restrictions from around Easter.

They'll be in a position to make more certain and more explicit noises once a bit of vaccine has been rolled out, and that won't be too long into the future or too late for Glastonbury.

[Old_Johno]

35 minutes ago, Stu H said:

Numerous things;

Furlough ends March. Money running out / can't bank-roll any more

Legality runs out in March, there'll be no justification for restrictions beyond then (anything will go through standard Parliamentary scrutiny, not Emergency Powers)

Vaccine roll out through Dec onwards

Country is reaching a more natural level of immunity in the population (I'm sure many have lots of thoughts on this, it's merely an opinion based on lots of reading, but please treat it as such)

 

There will simply be almost zero COVID in the UK come June.

Therefore, we party on!

I don’t know why the internet has decided legality runs out in March. The legislation can be extended for upto 2 years without another vote. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

It will surely go ahead barring the unexpected.  Hopefully, despite all folks reservations, over the next few crucial months we don’t let our guards down.  Everyone has to continue to social distance, hand washing, obeying the restrictions etc. No matter what is to be allowed at Xmas we’ve decided to err on the side of caution, we will see our grandkids with their pressies but no other meetings with relatives and friends or family dinners. 

Xmas will be a time to reflect on the horrendous year that is about to end and look forward to next year. Giving up a visit to a pub or a family meal will be worth the sacrifice if, when the clocks spring forward, we can all look forward to holidays and meeting at the farm. 

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, Stu H said:

Numerous things;

Furlough ends March. Money running out / can't bank-roll any more

Legality runs out in March, there'll be no justification for restrictions beyond then (anything will go through standard Parliamentary scrutiny, not Emergency Powers)

 

 

25 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

I don’t know why the internet has decided legality runs out in March. The legislation can be extended for upto 2 years without another vote. 

As far as I understand it the Coronavirus Act automatically expires in March 2022 with a vote every 6 months to keep it or not.

However the tier system and a lot of the day to day restrictions have nothing to do with the act.

The powers to exert those come from the Health Protection act 1984 which gives the Secretary of State the sweeping powers he's used to implement things like the tiers. 

Those powers will still exist but it becomes harder to justify that there's an emergency requiring their use.

[Stu H]

1 hour ago, Leyrulion said:

 

Those powers will still exist but it becomes harder to justify that there's an emergency requiring their use.

You've articulated it better than I could!

[Copperface]

3 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

 

As far as I understand it the Coronavirus Act automatically expires in March 2022 with a vote every 6 months to keep it or not.

However the tier system and a lot of the day to day restrictions have nothing to do with the act.

The powers to exert those come from the Health Protection act 1984 which gives the Secretary of State the sweeping powers he's used to implement things like the tiers. 

Those powers will still exist but it becomes harder to justify that there's an emergency requiring their use.

Trying hard to restrain the pedant in me, but you have quoted a non existent act, and nowhere in the wording of the relevant correct legislation (Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 84) is there a requirement for, or mention of, an emergency.

All they mention is: " ...,, serious and imminent threat to public health which is posed by the incidence and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) in England. The Secretary of State considers that the restrictions and requirements imposed by these Regulations are proportionate to what they seek to achieve, which is a public health response to that threat."

[shoptildrop]

I'm not convinced with festivals going ahead especially one as large as Glastonbury...

I hope the vaccine roll out timeline works out but I'm not sure it will, plus you have all the internationals whether that be customers, workers or acts to contend with

Then we have the anti vaxers and nervous folk that vaccine has been rushed who won't get the jab

Obviously festivals can't be the socially distanced affairs they are looking to implement with sports at no either IMO.

So you have alot of people mixing from all over of which maybe a 3rd have been vaccinated (total guess)... it just seems very high risk to me

Don't think my gigs in Feb and March will be happening either

I'm so conflicted I want them to happen but I can see safely how they can

[Chrisp1986]

14 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

I'm not convinced with festivals going ahead especially one as large as Glastonbury...

I hope the vaccine roll out timeline works out but I'm not sure it will, plus you have all the internationals whether that be customers, workers or acts to contend with

Then we have the anti vaxers and nervous folk that vaccine has been rushed who won't get the jab

Obviously festivals can't be the socially distanced affairs they are looking to implement with sports at no either IMO.

So you have alot of people mixing from all over of which maybe a 3rd have been vaccinated (total guess)... it just seems very high risk to me

Don't think my gigs in Feb and March will be happening either

I'm so conflicted I want them to happen but I can see safely how they can

Shooo shooo 

[Jakeyboi135]

28 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

I'm not convinced with festivals going ahead especially one as large as Glastonbury...

I hope the vaccine roll out timeline works out but I'm not sure it will, plus you have all the internationals whether that be customers, workers or acts to contend with

Then we have the anti vaxers and nervous folk that vaccine has been rushed who won't get the jab

Obviously festivals can't be the socially distanced affairs they are looking to implement with sports at no either IMO.

So you have alot of people mixing from all over of which maybe a 3rd have been vaccinated (total guess)... it just seems very high risk to me

Don't think my gigs in Feb and March will be happening either

I'm so conflicted I want them to happen but I can see safely how they can

Don't need everyone going to be vaccinated, just the vulnerable. Might be some of those who refuse a vaccine, but that's their choice, the country isn't going to keep protecting them if they do so. 

[zahidf]

32 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

I'm not convinced with festivals going ahead especially one as large as Glastonbury...

I hope the vaccine roll out timeline works out but I'm not sure it will, plus you have all the internationals whether that be customers, workers or acts to contend with

Then we have the anti vaxers and nervous folk that vaccine has been rushed who won't get the jab

Obviously festivals can't be the socially distanced affairs they are looking to implement with sports at no either IMO.

So you have alot of people mixing from all over of which maybe a 3rd have been vaccinated (total guess)... it just seems very high risk to me

Don't think my gigs in Feb and March will be happening either

I'm so conflicted I want them to happen but I can see safely how they can

I dont think Feb and March gigs will happen but govt have said a few times no social distancing by easter is their aim

[jparx]

People are overestimating the public appetite for restrictions beyond the spring and underestimating how desperate the government are to see the back of this. After being told “we’ll be back to normal around Easter” people are not going to keep up with the restrictions after that point. They’ve put a timescale on it now and I really think, barring something drastic, that’s going to be the finish line. The government won’t care if Glastonbury, or any other large event, is 100% safe. As long as it’s safe enough.

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, jparx said:

People are overestimating the public appetite for restrictions beyond the spring and underestimating how desperate the government are to see the back of this. After being told “we’ll be back to normal around Easter” people are not going to keep up with the restrictions after that point. They’ve put a timescale on it now and I really think, barring something drastic, that’s going to be the finish line. The government won’t care if Glastonbury, or any other large event, is 100% safe. As long as it’s safe enough.

Yup. They'll vaccinate as many of the over 50s and vulnerable as possible and will then open up

 

(And I think this applies to most world govt btw)

Edited November 24, 2020 by zahidf

[mufcok]

If the Government want to give festivals the chance to go ahead, especially one's with the infrastructure of Glastonbury, something should be put in place where if they can't go ahead come to the time of the festival and have to be pulled last minute, the Government cover the costs involved.

Obviously Glastonbury have a lot to sort well in advance, not least contracts for building the site. It's impossible for them to call it 6 months prior. We're told the vaccine will be fully rolled out to those who need it most by early next year and a lot should be closer to normal by April. Going off that information, Glastonbury (and other major festivals) need the flexibility to crack on like everything is going ahead. If they have to be pulled close to the festival date, for a reason out of their control, then they should get the financial support required. It's the logical way to try and sort things for the summer, I won't hold my breath though...

Edited November 24, 2020 by mufcok

[Crazyfool01]

For anyone with a telegraph subscription. Did we miss this ? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/empty-fields-glastonbury-will-vaccine-save-britains-music-festivals/amp/

[Leyrulion]

59 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Trying hard to restrain the pedant in me, but you have quoted a non existent act, and nowhere in the wording of the relevant correct legislation (Public Health (Control of Diseases) Act 84) is there a requirement for, or mention of, an emergency.

All they mention is: " ...,, serious and imminent threat to public health which is posed by the incidence and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) in England. The Secretary of State considers that the restrictions and requirements imposed by these Regulations are proportionate to what they seek to achieve, which is a public health response to that threat."

Yes sorry this is the precise wording. Tothe pedant I'd say that it will be harder in March to justify that Coronavirus is a serious and imminent threat. 😉

 

And you're right I've mixed up the Health protection regulations which are the statutory instruments made under the 1984 Public Health act.

The statutory instruments upon which the current lockdown and tier system were implemented were made under the "emergency procedure", section 45R, of the 1984 act, so not requiring approval resolutions of both houses.

 

 

[thrillhouse188]

15 minutes ago, jparx said:

People are overestimating the public appetite for restrictions beyond the spring and underestimating how desperate the government are to see the back of this. After being told “we’ll be back to normal around Easter” people are not going to keep up with the restrictions after that point. They’ve put a timescale on it now and I really think, barring something drastic, that’s going to be the finish line. The government won’t care if Glastonbury, or any other large event, is 100% safe. As long as it’s safe enough.

Totally agree, my argument has always been that it isn't about whether Glasto is totally safe, just that it can satisfy some arbitrary guidelines to make it look like the government are trying to make it safe. These are almost certainly two very different things!

Was the quote from BoJo along the lines of saying that the plan is to go back to normal once the vulnerable are all vaccinated accurate? 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, thrillhouse188 said:

Totally agree, my argument has always been that it isn't about whether Glasto is totally safe, just that it can satisfy some arbitrary guidelines to make it look like the government are trying to make it safe. These are almost certainly two very different things!

Was the quote from BoJo along the lines of saying that the plan is to go back to normal once the vulnerable are all vaccinated accurate? 

with all those sanitisers ( empty ) it will be covid secure anyway  

[Avalon_Fields]

Totally agree and believe, it’s going ahead unless there’s a serious issue with the vaccine.

I’m hearing a small festival in late summer is going ahead, they have no great pot of cash and they wouldn’t be taking the risk unless they were confident.

 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

Totally agree, my argument has always been that it isn't about whether Glasto is totally safe, just that it can satisfy some arbitrary guidelines to make it look like the government are trying to make it safe. These are almost certainly two very different things!

Was the quote from BoJo along the lines of saying that the plan is to go back to normal once the vulnerable are all vaccinated accurate? 

Bojo and handcock said no social distancing is the aim my easter

[thrillhouse188]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Bojo and handcock said no social distancing is the aim my easter

that'll do nicely!

[zahidf]

20 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

For anyone with a telegraph subscription. Did we miss this ? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/empty-fields-glastonbury-will-vaccine-save-britains-music-festivals/amp/

Not seen that! Not got a subscription alas

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Not seen that! Not got a subscription alas

someone will have ... theres a workaround too which I will attempt to use if nobody can give us a rundown 

[Leyrulion]

35 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

For anyone with a telegraph subscription. Did we miss this ? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/empty-fields-glastonbury-will-vaccine-save-britains-music-festivals/amp/

Melvin Benn is a happy man. “It feels to me like we’ve just won the lottery,” says the man behind the Reading and Leeds, Latitude and Download music festivals.

The music industry veteran is reacting to today’s news that Oxford University’s Covid-19 vaccine has been proven to be up to 90 per cent effective. The boss of Festival Republic says he could barely contain his excitement when the breakthrough was announced on Radio 4 at six minutes past seven this morning. Add to this the two other potential vaccines, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Covid-19 Winter Plan and Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s comment that life should start to feel normal by next Easter, and Benn says that summer 2021 is “looking incredibly positive.”

After a year in which music festivals were stamped out by the global pandemic, the good news could be the shot in the arm that the industry so desperately needs. It is now “very very very highly likely” that Reading, Leeds, Latitude and Download will go ahead next summer as hoped, Benn says. These festivals alone have a combined audience of 330,000 and give a platform to hundreds of bands. “All of the events for the summer feel like they have just had a weight lifted off them,” says Benn.

 

John Giddings, who runs the Isle of Wight Festival, agrees. He tells me he’s “75 to 80 per cent confident” that his festival will go ahead next June. “We’re planning as if it’s going to happen,” he says. Duran Duran, Snow Patrol, Lionel Ritchie and Lewis Capaldi are among those lined up to perform. “They’re all gagging to play. They’re desperate. We’ve sold over 40,000 tickets,” says Giddings.

 

And this morning Glastonbury Festival co-organiser Emily Eavis raised hopes that her Somerset shindig would go ahead too. Eavis posted a picture on Instagram of what she called a “dreamy sunrise”. She added: “And great news on the vaccine too! Hope for us all…” No official comment on Glastonbury’s status is expected until the new year, though.

But all this hope has substance. The Prime Minister’s Winter Plan highlighted the partial return of “live performances” depending on which Tier areas are in. Under Johnson’s new plans, live performances in Tier 1 areas – that’s areas where the Covid risk is classed as Medium – are limited to 50 per cent capacity of a venue or 4,000 people outdoors and 1,000 people indoors (whichever is lower). In Tier 2 (High risk) areas, numbers are limited to 50 per cent capacity or 2,000 outdoors and 1,000 indoors (whichever is lower). And in Tier 3 areas (Very High risk), normal events are not permitted although drive-in concerts are.

These measures may sound restrictive. But given where the arts sector has been for most of the year, they represent a leap towards freedom. Addressing the nation as he outlined his plan, Johnson said that an “escape route is in sight”. Festival promoters will be hoping that by the time the clocks go forward next March, the escape tunnel will be behind them and they’ll be charging towards the sunlit uplands.

To some, festivals might stand for little more than music played in a field to hordes of refreshed hedonists. But Britain’s live music sector is worth £1.1 billion a year to the economy and employs tens of thousands of people. Many of these people haven’t worked this year or have been forced to find alternative employment. Try telling them that none of this matters. There’s also the impact on wider economies to consider: the Isle of Wight Festival brings £10 million of extra business to the island’s economy every year, while Glastonbury generates £100 million a year to local businesses and charities.

But even though festivals are likely to return in 2021, the process of going to one will feel different. It would be impossible to enforce social distancing at a festival, so testing will become a big part of the mix. Organisers believe there will be a requirement for festivalgoers to prove that they don’t have Covid or are immune before entering the site. This means that as well as packing their wellies and hosing down their tent before heading off to a festival, people will have to self-test or have a vaccine jab. This could add to the cost, which may potentially put people off. “If the cost is a fiver [to self-test] people won’t care. If it’s £100 people will care,” says Giddings. An extra cost will also hit organisers in the form of testing facilities on site

There is also the issue of enforceability at the festival gates. If someone turns up without evidence of a negative test or a vaccine, will organisers be legally obliged to send them home? And will the ticket-holder be entitled to compensation?

There are ways around this. Ticket seller Ticketmaster is considering asking fans to verify that they’ve been vaccinated or are Covid-free prior to digital tickets being issued. A similar system of digital ‘vaccine passports’ for UK festivals would pre-empt the need for this issue to be dealt with at festival site itself. But it is logistically tricky and will no doubt have ‘Big Brother’ implications to many. Ticketmaster was swift to stress that its plan was only a “potential possibility” after an online backlash from the likes of 1990s pop group Right Said Fred, who said on Twitter: “Here it is, vaccines will be mandatory in all but name.” But it is highly likely that festivals will have to adopt similar measures. Benn says it’s “almost inevitable” that some form of digital health passport will be required next summer. Rarely will going to a rock ‘n’ roll show feel so un-rock ‘n’ roll. But needs must.

On the plus side, festivals are likely to be more hygienic next summer, with toilet facilities cleaned more regularly. And Benn says they will almost certainly be cash-free events as card payments are less likely to spread the virus than thousands of notes and coins circulating around.

But there is one outstanding issue that could yank the guitar lead from the amp before the first power chord is even played. And that’s insurance.

Throughout the Covid crisis, concert promoters have been unable to get pandemic cover in their insurance policies. This means that they can’t claim compensation if they’re forced to cancel due to Covid-19. And few promoters are likely to press ahead with a festival and all its associated costs if they’re not covered by insurance.

With the issue of vaccination looking like it’s covered, Benn says that insurance is now “the single most important factor” in whether festivals will go ahead or not. Given the vaccination news, he says that insurance companies may soften their stance and start offering some form of pandemic cover as the chances of huge pay-outs are reduced. Or he says that the government could step forward and underwrite live events with a special Covid cancellation clause.

He hopes that the government will look at this issue after Christmas when they have “more headspace to consider peripheral considerations as opposed to core considerations” related to Covid. He believes that this state-backed underwriting is the more realistic option because insurance company’s premiums, if they’re offered, are likely to be prohibitively expensive.

Giddings agrees that the issue of insurance is “very serious” (he doesn’t have any Covid cancellation cover for next year either). “If it all gets cancelled and we’ve committed to a lot of costs, we’re screwed,” he says. How would that play out? “Er, we’ll go bust,” he says, before qualifying his comment. “Listen, I don’t know. It’s all a juggle isn’t it? It’s all an absolute juggle. This is what it boils down to. I can’t predict that [next year’s festival] is definitely going to happen – I am quietly confident it is going to happen – and if it doesn’t happen, I know we don’t have insurance against a pandemic so all bets are off then. It’s a question of what costs we’re committed to, isn’t it?”

His last comment is key. It means that timing is currently a huge play in organisers’ considerations. Commit too much money too soon, and that money may be lost if festivals don’t happen and insurance, in whatever form, is not forthcoming. But hold back too long, and promoters will be scrambling to put on the show in time should it go ahead.

 

Festivals sites take time to build: construction of the Isle of Wight site is due to start at the end of May while construction of the far bigger Glastonbury site is scheduled to commence in March. Meanwhile physical infrastructure (stages, lighting and temporary roads) and personnel (construction workers, catering, security) need to be booked months prior to the build beginning. Next summer may seem like a long way off, but the moment is fast approaching for festivals to decide whether to commit or not. The “juggle” that Giddings talks about is frighteningly real. Back in March, Chancellor Rishi Sunak promised to do “whatever it takes” to support businesses through the pandemic. Festival organisers will be on tenterhooks to see if he’s as good as his word almost a year on.

 

But just as festival organisers are having to weigh up the balance of risk and hassle, so are music fans. If festivals go ahead, people’s attendance will all boil down to how much value they put on that feeling of standing in a field with friends listening to live music. Are those hoops worth jumping through? Does the joy of being there trump the inconvenience of getting there? Is the juice worth the squeeze?

 

Unsurprisingly, Giddings says people are “desperate to get out there and enjoy themselves”. When the Isle of Wight Festival announced its cancellation last summer, fewer than five per cent of ticketholders asked for their money back. They simply held on to their tickets for next year.

 

“There’s nothing better than music in the open air and enjoying it. The thing about a festival is that you can speak to anyone. It’s not like a football match where you speak to someone and you might get beaten up because they support the other team,” says Giddings. You can sense his mixture of hope and excitement that next year happens. “A few tunes in a field. Sharing the experience of music can’t be beaten.”

 

We’ll know over the coming months whether the bands really will play on or not.

 

 

 

 

[Leyrulion]

Tl;Dr

 

Festival organisers are confident they will happen. 

They are planning for testing in advance, one way is by health passports before tickets are released

Glastonbury contributes 100million to the local economy

Key block now is ability of festivals to get insurance in case of cancellation due to the pandemic.