Rolling Chance of Glastonbury 2022 Thread

[Bryanrebe]

90% 

Let the confusion ensue.

[blutarsky]

80

[Mellotr0n]

95%

[circus92]

90%

[parsonjack]

60%

[Ayrshire Chris]

99.999%

[charlierc]

65%

[Reckoner]

84%

10/2: 72.11 (+1.86)

15/2: 78.77(+6.66)

Rolling Average

10/2: 81.96 (-0.66)

15/2: 81.73 (-0.24)

 

[Greenelk]

99%

[Radiopaste]

66.6%

[Gnomicide]

99%

[DareToDibble]

50%

[Wellyboot]

53%

[ErnestWorthing]

99%

[Mellotr0n]

99%

[FakeEmpire]

5%

June is looking optimistic at the moment. They will need all social distancing restrictions removed by March to start the build and it's just hard to see that right now.

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

5%

June is looking optimistic at the moment. They will need all social distancing restrictions removed by March to start the build and it's just hard to see that right now.

Um.... This thread is for Glastonbury 2022.

[Gnomicide]

Who's going to break it to him?

[FakeEmpire]

Haha, I am actually referring to 2022. Concerned that we will still be in winter restrictions when the decision is made for next year.

Hope I am wrong but so hard to be optimistic at the moment.

[kalifire]

80%

[Mellotr0n]

2 hours ago, FakeEmpire said:

5%

June is looking optimistic at the moment. They will need all social distancing restrictions removed by March to start the build and it's just hard to see that right now.

You genuinely think it would be a big surprise if there was no social distancing 13 months from now? 

[kalifire]

4 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

You genuinely think it would be a big surprise if there was no social distancing 13 months from now? 

I’m not sure that’s so far fetched. We (you) will have just been through deepest winter, more people will be susceptible and at some stage we’ll discover how long these vaccines are effective for, probably when the virus starts to surge again. Given it’ll be approaching twelve months for millions at that point, it’s not so unbelievable to think we might be hitting a post-flat curve wave. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by kalifire

[Mellotr0n]

4 minutes ago, kalifire said:

I’m not sure that so far fetched. We (you) will have just been through deepest winter, more people will be susceptible and at some stage we’ll discover how long these vaccines are effective for, probably when the virus starts to surge again. Given it’ll be approaching twelve months for millions at that point, it’s not so unbelievable to think we might be hitting a post-flat curve wave. 

However this is ignoring the fact that treatments - that have shown so far 100% efficacy in disarming the virus - will likely be readily available by this point. A virus can only "surge" at all if there are high numbers of susceptible people, which is very unlikely. It may ripple a little.

Also, T Cell immunity - those who had the SARS/MERS vaccines that the Astra vaccine is based on, are still showing T Cell immunity from those viruses 17 years on. It would be a huge, huge, huge shock to the scientific community if the vaccines only work against symptomatic COVID-19 for a year.

Oh, and also the plan is for probably the over 50s/high risk to be re-innoculated by then, with a new vaccine that covers mutations.

I'm not saying it's impossible, just very, very unlikely.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Mellotr0n

[FakeEmpire]

6 minutes ago, Mellotr0n said:

You genuinely think it would be a big surprise if there was no social distancing 13 months from now? 

I think it's quite possible, yes.

I really hope I am wrong - and I'm certainly feeling very pessimistic generally at the moment - but I do have concerns.

At the moment, we're talking about social distancing restrictions into the Autumn. We've already been told to then expect increased restrictions over Winter. That takes us into Jan-March next year when Glastonbury make their final decisions and start the build. 

The state of the NHS during that winter period will probably dictate to what extent restrictions are released in Spring/Summer 2022.

[Mellotr0n]

4 minutes ago, FakeEmpire said:

I think it's quite possible, yes.

I really hope I am wrong - and I'm certainly feeling very pessimistic generally at the moment - but I do have concerns.

At the moment, we're talking about social distancing restrictions into the Autumn. We've already been told to then expect increased restrictions over Winter. That takes us into Jan-March next year when Glastonbury make their final decisions and start the build. 

The state of the NHS during that winter period will probably dictate to what extent restrictions are released in Spring/Summer 2022.

To be fair I'm not sure about "expect". It's possible, is how Whitty worded it. I can understand them wanting to be cautious this early into the vaccine rollout. You seem to have taken "it's possible we will have some minor restrictions next winter" (in a worst case scenario) and turned it into "it's definitely going to happen".

Not looking to have a go, btw. Appreciate this is a stressful time for everyone.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Mellotr0n