Rolling Chance of Glastonbury 2022 Thread

[Jacksamthompson]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

100% clearly and wondering why this thread even exists anymore?

This is exactly what this website is for. Pointless threads. Your here for it. Im here for it. Lets keep making pointless stabs in the dark. 100% going ahead

[Mellotr0n]

100%, and hopeful that this thread will start to seem a bit silly/pointless and drop down off the board in a few months time.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Mellotr0n

[kalifire]

99%

The only thing that stops it being 100% for me is the potential issue of vaccine longevity, and the lack of any framework for handling events of this size. I pity the festivals happening in late summer - it all seems chaotic right now.

(I'm also grateful for them, because they'll be the guinea pigs that will ensure stability for Glasto 2022).

[assorted]

On 3/31/2021 at 11:09 AM, assorted said:

52%

50% down as it seems social distancing won't be lifted in the UK in July and I'm seeing no end in sight, or even any date of an end, in the USA, either (in terms of full capacity venues, no more social distancing). Looking forward to hearing better news soon.

[stuartbert two hats]

Down to 94% after that scary sage model.

[Leyrulion]

61.7% ⬆️

[John the Moth]

99% everything is going in the right direction, 14/15 months to take care of any hiccups

89% chance of me being there. Clearly an appetite for opening borders from UK side, even if the strategy on the table right now is pants. NZ opening travel to Australia is encouraging. If I don’t have to quarantine inbound but I do on return I’ll take it. Recently changed jobs from contracting so I’ll get holiday pay for part of it at least for a change.

[parsonjack]

65%

[SighMo]

80%

[parsonjack]

66%

[Crazyfool01]

100% 

[Wellyboot]

62%

[northernringo]

75%

[Mellotr0n]

100%

[Greenelk]

99%

[found home in 2009]

90%

We're in fairly unprecedented times, so hard to predict anything with 100% certainty, but with the vaccine roll out going well even as somebody that's normally fairly pessimistic I reckon we should be in a good place by next summer.

[assorted]

On 4/8/2021 at 5:56 PM, assorted said:

50% 

48% 

[Mellotr0n]

100%

I'm genuinely curious as to the reasoning, for those who aren't that confident (say, below 80%).

If it doesn't happen next year, why would it ever happen again?

[Crazyfool01]

100%

[Ayrshire Chris]

100%

[assorted]

22 hours ago, Mellotr0n said:

100%

I'm genuinely curious as to the reasoning, for those who aren't that confident (say, below 80%).

If it doesn't happen next year, why would it ever happen again?

I’m down to 48% because of the UK festivals now starting to cancel. I think if Reading/Leeds happens my confidence shoots up to 90%.

 

I agree about your idea that if not now, then never and my worry is the answer is “never.” At least some people believe in that while not always saying it out loud.

 

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/22370176/covid-19-vaccinated-people-cdc-guidance-herd-immunity

 

Above is a recent article where all the “public health experts” saying there should be no high risk activities until herd immunity.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/herd-immunity-experts-discuss-if-its-possible-to-reach-covid-immunity.html

 

And here is a even more recent article where “public health experts” say we may never reach herd immunity. 

So it seems to me either we have to hit herd immunity, or politicians (and media) have to start ignoring public health experts, or Glastonbury (and any return to real normal) can’t ever happen. 

 

[MEGABOWL]

2 minutes ago, assorted said:

I’m down to 48% because of the UK festivals now starting to cancel. I think if Reading/Leeds happens my confidence shoots up to 90%.

 

I agree about your idea that if not now, then never and my worry is the answer is “never.” At least some people believe in that while not always saying it out loud.

 

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/22370176/covid-19-vaccinated-people-cdc-guidance-herd-immunity

 

Above is a recent article where all the “public health experts” saying there should be no high risk activities until herd immunity.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/herd-immunity-experts-discuss-if-its-possible-to-reach-covid-immunity.html

 

And here is a even more recent article where “public health experts” say we may never reach herd immunity. 

So it seems to me either we have to hit herd immunity, or politicians (and media) have to start ignoring public health experts, or Glastonbury (and any return to real normal) can’t ever happen. 

 

Politicians, most of the media and the public at large will start ignoring Public Health experts long before June 2022

[parsonjack]

70%

Assuming GFL need to make a go/no-go decision before end-Feb 2022 that gives little over 10 months to go from 6 people mixing in a distanced fashion, to having full confidence in 200,000 mixing closely for a few months later.

Considering restrictions are currently not much different to what they were 12 months ago we're putting a shit-load of faith in pretty much nothing but the vaccine turning this around.

Hence my cautiousness....

[Crazyfool01]

100 % 

[stuartbert two hats]

On 4/15/2021 at 10:07 AM, Wellyboot said:

62%

Seriously? It'll be ok, I bet you 99 chicken nuggets.