Rolling Chance of Glastonbury 2022 Thread

[Superscally]

12%

Get yer deposits back for Christmas before the pubs shut.

[John the Moth]

90% fest
75% me
More worried about the impact of Omicron on travel than the festival.

[assorted]

2 hours ago, Suprefan said:

100%
 

It stays there if Emily makes an announcement this week. Thats my main thing that we didnt get another artist before christmas.

I'm down to 70% but I'm not sure no announcement this week would affect my confidence one way or another. Even if they had an announcement planned and were 100% going ahead they still may delay the announcement until England is at least past the peak of this new wave.

Edited December 20, 2021 by assorted
clarity

[Leyrulion]

⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️88.6% ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️

[zahidf]

86%. It seems everyone is easily spooked by scariants despite being triple jabbed, so rational decisions aren't possible.

[sedra]

50%🙁

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

I'm floating around the 90% mark at the moment. I'm thinking 2022 is now set to be similar to 2021, a really difficult first quarter of the year but in this case, I think we'll have a better Spring and a full festival season, thanks to how much more advanced we are with vaccines over this year. The spectre of postponements, cancellations and last minute dropouts from artists to punters and everyone in between due to the obvious will still loom large over us for some time yet, unfortunately

 

 

 

[Smeble]

50/50 probably will know for sure by the end of Jan.

[balthazarstarbuck]

5 hours ago, Memory Man said:

100% 

by the time the weather warms up the thought of any restrictions or covid related problems will be firmly set aside.

If you could go to a festival last july / august you will be able to go to one in June.

Same percentage, same rationale. 
As iffy as things may seem right now, we’re still in a far better position than this time last year. And we still got some festivals last year. 
100%.

[kalifire]

73%

As per last year, the conditions come June aren't relevant. It's the decisions that need to be taken around March that commit the festival financially. Next year that could be even earlier, given that balance payments are in March and not April. It's likely we'll be entering 2022 with conditions in place that would make mass gatherings on this scale impossible. This is not going to turn around in two months, but it might in six, which means another horribly tense time for all involved right now.

While I think Glastonbury is more likely to be held than not, I definitely think 2+booster will be a condition of entry.

 

[Freddyflintstonree]

40%.

Realistically, we are certain to see hospitalisations and deaths rise in the next few weeks. A grim reality, but with the case numbers what they are now, and with Christmas around the corner, I would think mid January will look pretty bleak. 

There is talk of a lockdown of some description after Christmas too.

Considering they pulled the plug on this years festival on 21st January, I am once again pretty pessimistic, and think we will see a very similar pattern of events in the coming weeks. I hope I'm wrong! 

[Matt42]

Glastonbury has the government-led reinsurance scheme to fall back on now. They don’t have to pull it as early.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/live-events-reinsurance-scheme

Edited December 21, 2021 by Matt42

[Matt42]

The wider issue is that the new normal will be a cycle of bad numbers in the winter with a period of clearance in the summer.

This virus is never going away. The problem is that a lot of people still equate the virus with death. When it’s moving away from that swiftly.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Matt42

[Chapple12345]

I agree Glasto will probably be the first to pull the plug should it come to it, but I'm confident this won't happen. In the last few days we've given out almost a million boosters a day, keep this going and heading into spring we'll be in a good position. This isn't like last winter with very few jabs in arms and much higher hospitalisations and deaths. Also potential restrictions they're expecting bare no resemblance to lockdown, I don't remember being able to get haircuts or see 6 friends in April 2020. I imagine anything will be eased March time when the decision will probably be made and I expect they'll power on, I mean weve had more info about 2022 now than we had for the 2021 edition. I'd say it's likely to have condition of entry (triple vaxxed/negative test) though. I'm confident it's 100% on

[stuie]

8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Glastonbury has the government-led reinsurance scheme to fall back on now. They don’t have to pull it as early.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/live-events-reinsurance-scheme

 

• Premium is set at 5% of the total value of insured costs (plus Insurance Premium Tax).

Could be partially to do with the larger than normal ticket price increase? 

 

[northernringo]

60%

[incident]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Glastonbury has the government-led reinsurance scheme to fall back on now. They don’t have to pull it as early.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/live-events-reinsurance-scheme

Yep.

There's no likely scenario under which they make a "stop/go" decision before about mid March and quite possibly later than that. Unlike last year, they have all the time in the world to let things play out.

1 hour ago, stuie said:

• Premium is set at 5% of the total value of insured costs (plus Insurance Premium Tax).

Could be partially to do with the larger than normal ticket price increase?

Probably not. The ticket price for 2022 really hasn't been larger than normal - if anything it's smaller than expected. It was due to rise from £248 in 2019 to £265 in 2020 anyway - so on the pattern it was heading, if 2020 and 2021 had happened we'd likely be looking at ~£290 now rather than the £280 we've ended up at.

[Avalon_Fields]

I understand the very fast rise of omicron may mean it falls quicker too. Undoubtedly January will be bad but hopefully there’s a big improvement in time for Glastonbury to prepare with reasonable confidence. Worth noting big festivals such as Reading/Leeds did happen without many issues. So I’ll be less optimistic than before but still believe. 90%

[Gnomicide]

100%

[Greenelk]

99%

[jparx]

100%. News is pretty negative at the minute but we’re still so many steps ahead of last Christmas, even if we end up in a lockdown next week. Festivals happened this year and they will happen next as well. People need to get used to winters being like this, at least for the foreseeable, but things will ease up again as they did last year.

[Crazyfool01]

14 minutes ago, jparx said:

100%. News is pretty negative at the minute but we’re still so many steps ahead of last Christmas, even if we end up in a lockdown next week. Festivals happened this year and they will happen next as well. People need to get used to winters being like this, at least for the foreseeable, but things will ease up again as they did last year.

The last year I’ve seen this as a slow progression back to prepandemic times over what might be a 5-10 year cycle . The cure isn’t gonna be the vaccines after 1 year with many unjabbed … it’s going to take a while with the peaks getting Lower and lower 92% 

[steviewevie]

72.6%

[gfa]

10 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I understand the very fast rise of omicron may mean it falls quicker too. Undoubtedly January will be bad but hopefully there’s a big improvement in time for Glastonbury to prepare with reasonable confidence. Worth noting big festivals such as Reading/Leeds did happen without many issues. So I’ll be less optimistic than before but still believe. 90%

Once people are in the fields its all good but not sure about the 'without many issues' part. Significant amounts of people who went to festivals this summer got covid. I'm very optimistic regardless

[circus92]

Nailed on - 100%

When you consider how many festivals happened last year with relatively minor issues, next year can only be better.