news & politics:discussion

[Guest]

I wonder why the media are too busy talking about the BBC Presenter and not talking about Boris Johnson not defying a Court order by not handing over his old phone…

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder why the media are too busy talking about the BBC Presenter and not talking about Boris Johnson not defying a Court order by not handing over his old phone…

everyone loves a sex scandal.

[Kurosagi]

Freedman's Substack free bit ends on a tastier section than usual, one day I'll bite and subscribe:

My position since the Johnson/Truss calamities of last summer has been that the Tories are in very deep trouble. We could yet see some swing back, but there is no reason to assume we will, and quite a lot of reasons to think things will yet get worse. We could be looking at a result so bad it puts the future of the party in serious doubt.

This possibility is little discussed because it seems so inherently unlikely. There is no historical precedent in the UK in the last century since the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats in 1924. Since 1935 neither Labour nor Conservatives have ever won fewer than 150 seats. The only modern example in a first past the post system is that of the Canadian Conservatives in 1993, who went from governing to holding two seats. But because of that it’s been underexplored in analysis which tends to automatically assume the Tory position will improve, even if only marginally, as we move into a campaign. So in the rest of this post I will look at five reasons why a Tory wipeout is entirely possible...

[Neil]

called someone i know tory boy yesterday cos he said Brexit hadn't worked and wants the boats stopped, he was horrified that anyone would think him a tory - he's the tory dream voter. 😛 

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Freedman's Substack free bit ends on a tastier section than usual, one day I'll bite and subscribe:

My position since the Johnson/Truss calamities of last summer has been that the Tories are in very deep trouble. We could yet see some swing back, but there is no reason to assume we will, and quite a lot of reasons to think things will yet get worse. We could be looking at a result so bad it puts the future of the party in serious doubt.

This possibility is little discussed because it seems so inherently unlikely. There is no historical precedent in the UK in the last century since the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats in 1924. Since 1935 neither Labour nor Conservatives have ever won fewer than 150 seats. The only modern example in a first past the post system is that of the Canadian Conservatives in 1993, who went from governing to holding two seats. But because of that it’s been underexplored in analysis which tends to automatically assume the Tory position will improve, even if only marginally, as we move into a campaign. So in the rest of this post I will look at five reasons why a Tory wipeout is entirely possible...

truss is gonna cost me loads with my re-mortgage.

[steviewevie]

53 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Freedman's Substack free bit ends on a tastier section than usual, one day I'll bite and subscribe:

My position since the Johnson/Truss calamities of last summer has been that the Tories are in very deep trouble. We could yet see some swing back, but there is no reason to assume we will, and quite a lot of reasons to think things will yet get worse. We could be looking at a result so bad it puts the future of the party in serious doubt.

This possibility is little discussed because it seems so inherently unlikely. There is no historical precedent in the UK in the last century since the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats in 1924. Since 1935 neither Labour nor Conservatives have ever won fewer than 150 seats. The only modern example in a first past the post system is that of the Canadian Conservatives in 1993, who went from governing to holding two seats. But because of that it’s been underexplored in analysis which tends to automatically assume the Tory position will improve, even if only marginally, as we move into a campaign. So in the rest of this post I will look at five reasons why a Tory wipeout is entirely possible...

I mean...that's one outcome of many.

[Kurosagi]

46 minutes ago, Neil said:

truss is gonna cost me loads with my re-mortgage.

Hypothetical for you - Yes, Truss was an effing ideological nightmare...but, if Sunak had won it instead of her do you think the interest rate situation would still be on the rise or that we'd have scrapped through relatively unscathed?

I'm tempted to think that she just ripped off the plaster and so it hit us dramatically quicker, but with the whole post-brexit self-harm and stalled economy situation it was always going to be a stagnant depressing mess long-term mess whichever tory took over?

[Kurosagi]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I mean...that's one outcome of many.

Which is why he's exploring it when other commentators are ignoring it.

I remember being shocked by the Canadian outcome back in the day. The prospect of finally wiping out the tory party in the UK was part of the reason that I was so cross with Blair for reneging on the electoral reform pact he made behind the scenes with Ashdown.

Another morning hypothetical...where would we be now after 25 years of PR and a reformed HoL?

[Kurosagi]

Just now, Kurosagi said:

Another morning hypothetical...where would we be now after 25 years of PR and a reformed HoL?

...probably with Farage has our Oberherr.

[lost]

16 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

if Sunak had won it instead of her do you think the interest rate situation would still be on the rise or that we'd have scrapped through relatively unscathed?

I think we are now above where we are when Truss was in aren't we? The Truss bounce was due to the government stimulating whilst the BOE was tightening. Inflation expectations now seem to be based on pay rises (in the private sector) which I don't think were showing up in the data during the Truss period.

[steviewevie]

Truss was only in power for a few weeks, and most of that was taken up with the Queen's death. Amazing impact really. No wonder she's so influential on the global stage.

Anyway, they didn't actually do anything, they just said they were going to slash loads of taxes and the markets lost faith. Inflation was going up then but was forecast to come down quicker than it has, so now we have higher interest rates. Also pound was dropping.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

[Neil]

2 hours ago, Kurosagi said:

Hypothetical for you - Yes, Truss was an effing ideological nightmare...but, if Sunak had won it instead of her do you think the interest rate situation would still be on the rise or that we'd have scrapped through relatively unscathed?

I'm tempted to think that she just ripped off the plaster and so it hit us dramatically quicker, but with the whole post-brexit self-harm and stalled economy situation it was always going to be a stagnant depressing mess long-term mess whichever tory took over?

It took a special idiot to crash the pound like she did.

[Neil]

i demand answers from the govt for why i wasn't given a peerage. 😛 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, Kurosagi said:

Which is why he's exploring it when other commentators are ignoring it.

I remember being shocked by the Canadian outcome back in the day. The prospect of finally wiping out the tory party in the UK was part of the reason that I was so cross with Blair for reneging on the electoral reform pact he made behind the scenes with Ashdown.

Another morning hypothetical...where would we be now after 25 years of PR and a reformed HoL?

messy coalitions including the far right?

[steviewevie]

Not Boris Johnson's whatsapps...but significant all the same...

[Crazyfool01]

so can we get back to the missing watts apps ? if you get a new phone then watts apps are kept arent they ? 

[steviewevie]

wow, it's Huw Edwards!

Shocked.

Edited July 12, 2023 by steviewevie

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

so can we get back to the missing watts apps ? if you get a new phone then watts apps are kept arent they ? 

Yeah they are, it’s backed up to the cloud. It’s also very easy to securely turn the phone on to get those messages. 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah they are, it’s backed up to the cloud. It’s also very easy to securely turn the phone on to get those messages. 

thought so ... so why arent they being accessed .... cant figure this out ... surely someone is breaking the law ? if not him then the  torys ? 

[squirrelarmy]

24 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

surely someone is breaking the law

Down to the Met to investigate.
 

Well they would if they weren’t on the Tory payroll

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Down to the Met to investigate.
 

Well they would if they weren’t on the Tory payroll

not sure this can be covered up tbh .... we will see 

[Neil]

52 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

so can we get back to the missing watts apps ? if you get a new phone then watts apps are kept arent they ? 

If you do the android copy thing for a new phone the msgs are copied.