news & politics:discussion

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yes...US vs China is potentially the biggie...

had possibilities of going as wrong as Vietnam, the USA has been china's protector for the last 75 years, and won't like a different approach (hence the vietnam comparison).

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

39 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

forming links and so on...  Its exactly what leads to global conflict and draws others in.

like 

[steviewevie]

big difference between now and WW2...nukes. Lots of them.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

big difference between now and WW2...nukes. Lots of them.

same risk of those as ever, if putin can't stand losing. he's got nowhere to go as the loser of the war, nukes might mean he doesn't lose.

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Neil said:

same risk of those as ever, if putin can't stand losing. he's got nowhere to go as the loser of the war, nukes might mean he doesn't lose.

yes...but we could see an actual conflict between nuclear armed superpowers...and you know, things happen, they can escalate, mistakes can be made...

[mattiloy]

12 hours ago, Neil said:

When the leader of the country is chosen by the members of a private club and not that countries electorate its a flaw in a disfunctional westminster system, when it happens in scotland that's Scottish sovereign tea. 

Gordon Brown wants a word

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[fred quimby]

54 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I read somewhere that if China helps Russia then that could potentially lead to a stalemate with Russia holding the Donbas...and then eventually that will end up being the basis of negotiations to end the war...and Ukraine will lose some of its country to Russia.

Yes, that is what I could see happening as well. 

[fred quimby]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Well in the end what Russia want is a buffer between Nato and them.  Nato are at fault for all of this by extending Nato and getting closer and closer to the Russian border.

Russia only need to hold a small amount of Ukraine to create the buffer they need due to the Landscape of Ukraine.  Some military expert was explaining this at the start of the conflict.  How due to some mountains etc it means there is only a small corridor for attack.  Bit over my head as I don't understand the layout of the country but that was the basics of it.

So I doubt Russia want or need to take much land to achieve their ultimate goals.

EDIT : cant find the video now sadly - was last year at the start...  

Seems to be lots of reasons, Nato being one. The idea that Nato want to invade Russia is an odd one though.

Then there is his papers on making the Russian empire again.

He wants that Corridor down to Crimea, where there just happens to be possible large gas , oil and mineral deposits. ExxonMobil were exploring down that way

 

[steviewevie]

Donbas doesn't create a buffer...it's a land bridge between Russia and Crimea and Black Sea.

Putin just wants a sphere of influence again like the good old days...but their pesky neighbours seem more interested in becoming western style liberal democracies (mostly). Putin has fucked it. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by steviewevie

[mattiloy]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I read somewhere that if China helps Russia then that could potentially lead to a stalemate with Russia holding the Donbas...and then eventually that will end up being the basis of negotiations to end the war...and Ukraine will lose some of its country to Russia.

 

Its very difficult to find non biased polling of pro russian/ukrainian sentiments amongst the native population pre war. But they did vote heavily for the pro russian candidates and it does have a heavy majority of ethnic russians.

But assuming most pro ukrainians have since fled donbas, what is honestly going to happen if ukraine retakes donbas, boot out pro russians and the replacement of them with pro ukrainians? Otherwise it will not work. You cant rule a place with a hostile population indefinitely. You can either genocide the population or set them free.

If there was a legitimate secession referendum with international observers post war and they wanted to rejoin russia, what would the west say then?

Edited February 20, 2023 by mattiloy

[Neil]

2 hours ago, mattiloy said:

Gordon Brown wants a word

the snp need to hear themselves. 😛 

[Neil]

London wants to ban my hreating, the bastards. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/20/wood-burners-urban-air-pollution-londoners-support-ban?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Edited February 20, 2023 by Neil

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

 

Its very difficult to find non biased polling of pro russian/ukrainian sentiments amongst the native population pre war. But they did vote heavily for the pro russian candidates and it does have a heavy majority of ethnic russians.

But assuming most pro ukrainians have since fled donbas, what is honestly going to happen if ukraine retakes donbas, boot out pro russians and the replacement of them with pro ukrainians? Otherwise it will not work. You cant rule a place with a hostile population indefinitely. You can either genocide the population or set them free.

If there was a legitimate secession referendum with international observers post war and they wanted to rejoin russia, what would the west say then?

Set them free. Good God.

[Neil]

48 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

And rightly so...  

Really bad for air quality.  Didn't have you down as the selfish polluting type.

my wood burner is allowed in clean air zones, cos its a clean burn burner.

[mattiloy]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Set them free. Good God.

Thats democracy. Pro russian people are still people. If they form a majority in the donbas, which I don’t know, and you don’t know, but thats what my hypothetical question is about, then the choice following a supposed ukrainian victory is to either impose ukrainian rule on them, which would not be so peaceful, or to genocide them, or to give them the freedom to decide on their own future. Good god.

Edited February 20, 2023 by mattiloy

[Neil]

2 hours ago, mattiloy said:

You cant rule a place with a hostile population indefinitely.

has anyone told the baltic states 😛

 

[steviewevie]

45 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Thats democracy. Pro russian people are still people. If they form a majority in the donbas, which I don’t know, and you don’t know, but thats what my hypothetical question is about, then the choice following a supposed ukrainian victory is to either impose ukrainian rule on them, which would not be so peaceful, or to genocide them, or to give them the freedom to decide on their own future. Good god.

Impose Ukrainian rule? They're part of Ukraine. Anyway we'll see how many are actually pro Russia after this.

[fred quimby]

45 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Thats democracy. Pro russian people are still people. If they form a majority in the donbas, which I don’t know, and you don’t know, but thats what my hypothetical question is about, then the choice following a supposed ukrainian victory is to either impose ukrainian rule on them, which would not be so peaceful, or to genocide them, or to give them the freedom to decide on their own future. Good god.

I believe that the Ukrainian government were looking to give them more say over that area, devolution type thing. No idea of the details sorry. Which may have worked, Putin had other ideas obviously. 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Impose Ukrainian rule? They're part of Ukraine. Anyway we'll see how many are actually pro Russia after this.

Yes indeed, let’s not forget that it’s Ukraine that has been invaded here. There’s no imposition of Ukrainian rule when it’s their own territory anyway. 

[mattiloy]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes indeed, let’s not forget that it’s Ukraine that has been invaded here. There’s no imposition of Ukrainian rule when it’s their own territory anyway. 

Any rule is imposed if the people living there don’t want it.

[steviewevie]

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Any rule is imposed if the people living there don’t want it.

Russian troops taking the area by force is hardly allowing those Ukrainians to chose.