news & politics:discussion

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Gotta hope in that case that the lib dems have learned from the last time that it doesn’t pay to go into coalition with those bastards.

Still FPTP in Scotland, barring some sort of pact between the lib dems, tories and Labour, on current polling Labour only gets around 10 seats give or take.

Labour could easily get 20 in Scotland. Few recent projections have shown that. 30% mainly concentrated in the central belt = plenty of seats.

[Neil]

i'm wondering why mattiloy never noticed corbyn's authoritarianism?

[Neil]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Labour could easily get 20 in Scotland. Few recent projections have shown that. 30% mainly concentrated in the central belt = plenty of seats.

depends how well labour can play the gender recognition thing against the snp, from what I've read, that wasn't supported by the Scottish electorate.so its an easy win to campaign that the snp don't represent Scotland.

[pink_triangle]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

If they're going to stand any chance of winning in next election Labour need to attract both left and centre voters, liberals and social conservatives, people who voted tory last time,  people who voted labour because of corbyn and people who voted labour because of blair.....and at moment they are losing them on left, and will start losing liberals too. Labour are a broad coalition (as are the tories), and they need to some how appeal to that broad coalition, not easy especially when starts to get all factional like it is again. Yes they are ahead in the polls, but that was after johnson sleaze and chaos, and then Truss burned the economy...but tories quickly fixed that and now look like they have a competent PM who looks like he knows what he's doing and is relatively popular...and now that lead looks weaker, and as election campaigns kick off could really start to narrow. Tories are so good at winning.

The polls were always going to tighten, I don’t think there is anyone in labour who had not anticipated that.  I agree that labour need to be a broad coalition, the fact is in FPTP not every voter is of equal value. If losing a left wing vote in Liverpool gains a red wall vote in Bolton, overall you are better off. These are calculations all parties will make.

FPTP also means people will vote tactically and not for the party that beat reflect their views. It’s easy to say you will punish labour now. However in Wrexham (my old constituency) a vote against labour is effectively a vote for the Tory candidate.

[pink_triangle]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

An outright Labour win would be a bad result for the UK.

The best scenario is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

Starmer’s natural illiberal and authoritarian tendencies checked and his hand forced into  concessions by more progressive and imaginative coalition partners. A chance of electoral reform too.

I would guess that unless one or the other of Labour/tories capitulates somehow before the next GE, that is also the most likely outcome.

I always thought labour minority government was the most likely and that’s how I still feel. I am not sure who these progressive and more imaginative partners would be. The Greens would consider it a major success if they doubled from 1 mp to 2.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, pink_triangle said:

I always thought labour minority government was the most likely and that’s how I still feel. I am not sure who these progressive and more imaginative partners would be. The Greens would consider it a major success if they doubled from 1 mp to 2.

seems unlikely green'll win in Bristol, boundary changes might screw it for them - will be hard to know where campaigning needs to happen. and the polls don't suggest a switch of labour voters to the greens.

[Neil]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

An outright Labour win would be a bad result for the UK.

The best scenario is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.

Starmer’s natural illiberal and authoritarian tendencies checked and his hand forced into  concessions by more progressive and imaginative coalition partners. A chance of electoral reform too.

I would guess that unless one or the other of Labour/tories capitulates somehow before the next GE, that is also the most likely outcome.

why not just say you'll be voting tory.

[fraybentos1]

13 minutes ago, Neil said:

depends how well labour can play the gender recognition thing against the snp, from what I've read, that wasn't supported by the Scottish electorate.so its an easy win to campaign that the snp don't represent Scotland.

Scottish Labour voted for it lol

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

I always thought labour minority government was the most likely and that’s how I still feel. I am not sure who these progressive and more imaginative partners would be. The Greens would consider it a major success if they doubled from 1 mp to 2.

Lib Dems are in some ways more progressive than Labour. 
 

Yeah greens don’t feature in anything tbh, 2 seats max but probs 1

[Neil]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Scottish Labour voted for it lol

it was the only option on the table -  the broad idea might have scottish support, lots of the specifics don't.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Lib Dems are in some ways more progressive than Labour. 
 

Yeah greens don’t feature in anything tbh, 2 seats max but probs 1

if green aren't increasing tbheir seats with a win in Bristol it'll be a win in norwich which looks less likely - and the greens are short of campaign funds since  Vivienne Westwood  died.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Neil said:

why not just say you'll be voting tory.

He can’t do that otherwise the mask fully comes off.

[Neil]

Just now, Ozanne said:

He can’t do that otherwise the mask fully comes off.

the mask is off that he wants a tory win!

[pink_triangle]

11 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Lib Dems are in some ways more progressive than Labour. 
 

Yeah greens don’t feature in anything tbh, 2 seats max but probs 1

To be honest I don’t think there is a huge amount of difference between labour, snp and Lib Dem. I think they are all occupying similar political space.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

the mask is off that he wants a tory win!

Well yes I always suspected he wanted that outcome. 

[pink_triangle]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Well yes I always suspected he wanted that outcome. 

Just like Jez it’s a much more fun job being leader of the opposition.

[Neil]

8 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

To be honest I don’t think there is a huge amount of difference between labour, snp and Lib Dem. I think they are all occupying similar political space.

but only one is most likely to pick up tory voters (reversing recent tory gains), any hung parliament could be quite different to what @mattiloy says

Edited April 9, 2023 by Neil

[Neil]

4 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Just like Jez it’s a much more fun job being leader of the opposition.

all mouth - zero responsibility.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Just like Jez it’s a much more fun job being leader of the opposition.

Yeah that’s true, they’d rather stay in opposition and moan rather than gain power and actually change lives for the better. 

[Neil]

maybe labour should be recruiting those militant doctors.

[Neil]

maybe labour should be recruiting those militant doctors.

[Neil]

you know how people nowadays do pick and mix spirituality/religions - i reckon the same is happening with politics, it doesn't make anything better it just creates some irresolvable conflicts.

[mattiloy]

Trying to understand how I could get myself to see the world through the eyes of a centrist.

Maybe hit myself repeatedly in the head with a hammer?

[steviewevie]

and herein lies labour's eternal problem... factional bickering.

[Guest]

The problem is more that people continually find issue with anything Labour do whilst letting the Tories get away with ruining the country.