news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

Lock the orange c**t up

[Neil]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

this...

 

Also the public wouldn't endorse a switch to pr if it looks like a way for one party warping the system to their advantage.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Neil said:

Also the public wouldn't endorse a switch to pr if it looks like a way for one party warping the system to their advantage.

They might if 2/3 don't vote Tory...

[Neil]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

They might if 2/3 don't vote Tory...

if voters wanted the tories excluded from winning, they could just vote differently, doesn't require the system changed.

[Neil]

3 hours ago, Rufus Gwertigan said:

So a barge has arrived off Weymouth.

https://news.sky.com/story/bibby-stockholm-barge-set-to-be-used-to-house-asylum-seekers-arrives-in-uk-waters-12876849

 

On the face of it it looks OK but the locals are up in arms  I don't know what the solution is but I am very much in favour of refurbishing and using old military sites.

Old military sites arent suitable cos they've been so poorly maintained that they need major referb before they could be repurposed for refugees.

[Neil]

Weymouth, or wherever has reason to be worried because somewhere has to provide the statutory services to the new residents.

which is either expensive or degrades services for existing residents.

[Neil]

Did anyone see the coronation concert the other night. There was an older black geezer sat to the right of sunak,bi can't work out who the is? At the time I thought he was darcus Howe but then realised that he's been dead a while. So must be someone else.

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, steviewevie said:

They might if 2/3 don't vote Tory...

2/3 of them do...(or sometimes just over half). Not very often they get more than 50% of the popular vote.

But! That is what is pointed out in the thread. They could still get in power with PR, still be largest party or be able to form coalitions, they wouldn't go away with PR...look across europe where right are still getting in power with PR systems...but overall it is better, because for so many voting feels pointless with our current system, or not voting for who you want but for who you don't want.

[steviewevie]

somehow I quoted myself in that last one, when was meant to be a reply to this...

7 hours ago, Neil said:

if voters wanted the tories excluded from winning, they could just vote differently, doesn't require the system changed.

 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[zahidf]

50 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Lol 'hung parliament fears'

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Lol 'hung parliament fears'

Rishi is planning for it.

 

[steviewevie]

rest assured...labour majority on the way...

 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

rest assured...labour majority on the way...

 

In this thread someone very wise said the initial reaction to the locals was wrong last week…

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

In this thread someone very wise said the initial reaction to the locals was wrong last week…

there's no right or wrong at this stage...just opinions and educated guesses...

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there's no right or wrong at this stage...just opinions and educated guesses...

You are wrong, that other person was right and very wise 😉

[mattiloy]

Gotta say, the Labour majority analysts make a good few assumptions to get there. 

The one assumption they dont make, and the most important one, is that the locals confirm the lack of support for Starmer’s Labour from liberals and the left. They assume that those votes will be lent in an election, but many are deeply disenchanted with Starmer and he seems unwilling to throw even the smallest bone their way.

That they are so disinterested in currying support to the left and lib, I also dont think Starmer or Mandelson care. Nothing suggests they are trying to build a broad bloc of support to win a majority. The strategy seems fairly clearly to go hard for the blue laboury red wall seats at the cost of alienating all else. Which probably, combined with the usual election campaign squeeze on the gap, will mean no majority.

Strategically it is also the safest strategy for getting Starmer inte downing street. So its fair enough

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Gotta say, the Labour majority analysts make a good few assumptions to get there. 

The one assumption they dont make, and the most important one, is that the locals confirm the lack of support for Starmer’s Labour from liberals and the left. They assume that those votes will be lent in an election, but many are deeply disenchanted with Starmer and he seems unwilling to throw even the smallest bone their way.

That they are so disinterested in currying support to the left and lib, I also dont think Starmer or Mandelson care. Nothing suggests they are trying to build a broad bloc of support to win a majority. The strategy seems fairly clearly to go hard for the blue laboury red wall seats at the cost of alienating all else. Which probably, combined with the usual election campaign squeeze on the gap, will mean no majority.

Strategically it is also the safest strategy for getting Starmer inte downing street. So its fair enough

Yeah well..from locals it was mostly red wall for labour, blue wall for lib dem...and greens doing ok all over but mostly in rural Tory areas with people who get upset about shit in rivers etc. And there was quite a bit of tactical voting, but at a local level, at a national level then labour and lib Dems could both do well..and most likely that will lead to a labour majority.  One problem could be usual Tory voters who stayed home and are ticking the Don't know box, what will they do? As for greens taking lefty voters, that is more likely to be in cities and won't be enough to stop labour winning in those areas.

Edited May 10, 2023 by steviewevie

[mattiloy]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Yeah well..from locals it was mostly red wall for labour, blue wall for lib dem...and greens doing ok all over but mostly in rural Tory areas with people who get upset about shit in rivers etc. And there was quite a bit of tactical voting, but at a local level, at a national level then labour and lib Dems could both do well..and most likely that will lead to a labour majority.  One problem could be usual Tory voters who are stayed home and are ticking the Don't know box, what will they do? As for greens taking lefty voters, that is more likely to be in cities and won't be enough to stop labour winning in those areas.

I agree that the greens wont win seats from Labour, and that they will be more concentrated in cities, but the leakage of votes to the greens will cap Labour’s success in any marginal where 1 / 2 thousand votes or so can tip the scales.

Edited May 10, 2023 by mattiloy

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I agree that the greens wont win seats from Labour, and that they will be more concentrated in cities, but the leakage of votes to the greens will cap Labour’s success in any marginal where 1 / 2 thousand votes or so can tip the scales.

BET NOW!

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I agree that the greens wont win seats from Labour, and that they will be more concentrated in cities, but the leakage of votes to the greens will cap Labour’s success in any marginal where 1 / 2 thousand votes or so can tip the scales.

more likely tory voters voting green so helping labour.

[Neil]

55 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

The one assumption they dont make, and the most important one, is that the locals confirm the lack of support for Starmer’s Labour from liberals and the left. They assume that those votes will be lent in an election, but many are deeply disenchanted with Starmer and he seems unwilling to throw even the smallest bone their way.

like corbyn threw the bone of admitting he got it wrong? i missed that bit.

[Neil]

27 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

more likely tory voters voting green so helping labour.

no evidence of that claimed switch from labour to greens.