news & politics:discussion

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

their forecasts were wrong.

They shouldn’t have raised interest rates on forecasts that weren’t correct then. 

[Guest]

 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They shouldn’t have raised interest rates on forecasts that weren’t correct then. 

🤔

[lost]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They shouldn’t have raised interest rates on forecasts that weren’t correct then. 

other way around.. Growth is much higher than expected. They've raised far too gradually as they thought we may go into recession hence we've ended up with inflation staying much higher than say the states.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They shouldn’t have raised interest rates on forecasts that weren’t correct then. 

if they knew inflation was going to stay high for longer they may have put up interest rates higher and faster.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, lost said:

other way around.. Growth is much higher than expected. They've raised far too gradually as they thought we may go into recession hence we've ended up with inflation staying much higher than say the states.

isn't this inflation driven by high food prices which are taking longer than expected to come down after energy prices have come down, and is same across europe, but also why not so bad in US as they didn't have as high energy/food price inflation?

And is growth much higher? It is above 0, but only just.

Anyway, bank reckons inflation will be 1% in a few years...all down to Labour.

Edited May 11, 2023 by steviewevie

[lost]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

isn't this inflation driven by high food prices which are taking longer than expected to come down after energy prices have come down, and is same across europe, but also why not so bad in US as they didn't have as high energy/food price inflation?

If you are a net importer (which we are) raising interest rates encourages people to hold £ which increases the value of the currency making food imports cheaper. 

Quote

same across europe

The ECB was even worse than our central bank sat on their hands claiming inflation was "transitory" at the start.

Edited May 11, 2023 by lost

[fraybentos1]

18 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They shouldn’t have raised interest rates on forecasts that weren’t correct then. 

They should have raised faster and harder. They were too slow so not they’ll have to go further. 
 

Have you ever seen someone cry so much about interest rates going up as ozanne? Presumably you’re on a tracker with your mortgage or due for renewal soon

Inflation makes us all poorer, just cause you follow Richard Murphy on twitter doesn’t make you an expert. The main lever the boe has to reduce inflation is to increase IRs 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, lost said:

If you are a net importer (which we are) raising interest rates encourages people to hold £ which increases the value of the currency making food imports cheaper. 

yes I get why they are raising interest rates...but food inflation has been stubbornly high which has been down to high energy prices for food industry across europe...and those high energy prices were due to the Russia/Ukraine thing. I mean, they keep putting up interest rates and they're not making much of a difference, just making life harder for many people...so maybe there will be a longer gap before they put up again, if they do...

[lost]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yes I get why they are raising interest rates...but food inflation has been stubbornly high which has been down to high energy prices for food industry across europe...and those high energy prices were due to the Russia/Ukraine thing. I mean, they keep putting up interest rates and they're not making much of a difference, just making life harder for many people...so maybe there will be a longer gap before they put up again, if they do...

Purely anecdotal, obviously some people are struggling but as far as I cans see demand is still high, holiday bookings are at record highs, restaurants appear to still be packed. I think they've messed up and haven't realised how much disposable income the now work from homers have which has easily absorbed the price increases.

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if they knew inflation was going to stay high for longer they may have put up interest rates higher and faster.

I’ve said this before but you raise interest rates when high inflation is down to consumer confidence. High inflation at the moment is due to supply chain issues so raising interest rates doesn’t help as it causes people to have even less money to put back into the economy. The BoE don’t care about that though. 

[gary1979666]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yes I get why they are raising interest rates...but food inflation has been stubbornly high which has been down to high energy prices for food industry across europe...and those high energy prices were due to the Russia/Ukraine thing. I mean, they keep putting up interest rates and they're not making much of a difference, just making life harder for many people...so maybe there will be a longer gap before they put up again, if they do...

I guess we don't know what would have happened if they hadn't increased them.  Would inflation have been worse?  Would the pound have fallen against the dollar, as the Fed keeps increasing their rate?  Who knows, but on balance, I'm on the side to agree with the BOE (possibly thinking they were too slow).

[steviewevie]

23 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

I guess we don't know what would have happened if they hadn't increased them.  Would inflation have been worse?  Would the pound have fallen against the dollar, as the Fed keeps increasing their rate?  Who knows, but on balance, I'm on the side to agree with the BOE (possibly thinking they were too slow).

I mean...it is literally their job...and they have this target of 2% so they have to be looking to do something...but how much affect I don't know...too many people on fixed rate mortgages!

Edited May 11, 2023 by steviewevie
there their they're

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, lost said:

Purely anecdotal, obviously some people are struggling but as far as I cans see demand is still high, holiday bookings are at record highs, restaurants appear to still be packed. I think they've messed up and haven't realised how much disposable income the now work from homers have which has easily absorbed the price increases.

round my way lots of restaurants are having to close....

[steviewevie]

...this is where country's terrible inequality comes in...some people are just fine...I'm one of them actually..loads of money...but a lot of people aren't...and it is actually quite visible where I live in Manchester. I am having to hire personal protection.

[lost]

Quote

but a lot of people aren't

Agreed which is why it should be the absolute priority in getting inflation under control. Inflation hits the poorest hardest. People in low/non skilled jobs who are least able to negotiate pay rises. These people also own no assets so say increases in mortgage rates won't affect them. 

[fraybentos1]

27 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve said this before but you raise interest rates when high inflation is down to consumer confidence. High inflation at the moment is due to supply chain issues so raising interest rates doesn’t help as it causes people to have even less money to put back into the economy. The BoE don’t care about that though. 

Your view is you know better than the central banks of the U.K., USA, EU, Australia, New Zealand and Canada?

Also less money is what they want you numpty! You really don’t have a clue and are parroting nonsense from Richard Murphy who you defo follow on twitter 

 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, lost said:

Agreed which is why it should be the absolute priority in getting inflation under control. Inflation hits the poorest hardest. People in low/non skilled jobs who are least able to negotiate pay rises. These people also own no assets so say increases in mortgage rates won't affect them. 

It won’t help as landlords that get hit by higher interest rates will compensate by putting rents up. There are no rent controls so everyone is worse off, well everyone except the wealthy that is.

Raising interest rates right now is the wrong course of action. 

[lost]

Just now, Ozanne said:

It won’t help as landlords that get hit by higher interest rates will compensate by putting rents up. There are no rent controls so everyone is worse off, well everyone except the wealthy that is.

Raising interest rates right now is the wrong course of action. 

Two different markets. if landlords can simply raise rents to what ever they want why don't do it any time?

[steviewevie]

22 minutes ago, lost said:

Inflation hits the poorest hardest

yeah, especially food inflation...

[lost]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yeah, especially food inflation...

and that food being imported would be alot cheaper from say Spain if our pounds bought alot more euros so lets get those rates increased!

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, lost said:

and that food being imported would be alot cheaper from say Spain if our pounds bought alot more euros so lets get those rates increased!

You’re obviously correct but you’re talking to a couple of brick walls I’m afraid.

[steviewevie]

Just now, lost said:

Two different markets. if landlords can simply raise rents to what ever they want why don't do it any time?

🤔 because they won't get tenants?

They're raising them to cover rising mortgage rates?

Actually they are rising because of demand/supply, right? Not enough of them for rising number of people who are renting because they can't afford to buy. Housing market in this country is totally screwed. 

[lost]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

🤔 because they won't get tenants?

They're raising them to cover rising mortgage rates?

Actually they are rising because of demand/supply, right? Not enough of them for rising number of people who are renting because they can't afford to buy. Housing market in this country is totally screwed. 

I'm saying they will charge what the market can afford. If they can simply say my costs have increased Im raising my rents, why weren't they saying before I'd like to retire early Im raising my rents. Their costs have no baring on the rent they can charge.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, lost said:

and that food being imported would be alot cheaper from say Spain if our pounds bought alot more euros so lets get those rates increased!

yeah, but exports, growth etc etc. (and main reason for food price inflation is energy costs...they're high across europe).