news & politics:discussion

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

can the Bentos resist?

I'd respect it if he was fishing tbh but he isn't. I'd love to call him thick right now but I said i'd tone down the insults so i won't 🙂 

[fraybentos1]

https://www.ft.com/content/8d20355f-ddb9-4d11-afe1-7d5456cb2f86

 

You are scraping the barrel if you are looking at Japan for answers on this matter.

[fraybentos1]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

https://www.ft.com/content/8d20355f-ddb9-4d11-afe1-7d5456cb2f86

 

You are scraping the barrel if you are looking at Japan for answers on this matter.

as you can see, Japan going the wrong way and the UK EU and USA going the right way. The USA who hiked IRs earliest and most aggressively coming down quickly. Obv ozanne will ignore this but hey ho

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

If that 45%-74% live in red/blue wall seats that Labour need to win than Tories could be onto something with this we love motorists not Just Stop Oil extremist hippies thing.

labour don't need to win all seats, just need more than the tories, libs will win lots of the tory seats.

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

t really seems like they and the government want a recession.

its a good way of resetting out-of-balance-economic-factors.

[Nobody Interesting]

31 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

as you can see, Japan going the wrong way and the UK EU and USA going the right way. The USA who hiked IRs earliest and most aggressively coming down quickly. Obv ozanne will ignore this but hey ho

Forgive me if I am reading the graph wrong but Japan has a very small rise in the last month but from a level lower than where the USA was and far far below where we are now and their peak was far lower too.................... if I am reading this wrong then please put me right.

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Forgive me if I am reading the graph wrong but Japan has a very small rise in the last month but from a level lower than where the USA was and far far below where we are now and their peak was far lower too.................... if I am reading this wrong then please put me right.

Japans is on the way up and has just overtaken the USA who are falling rapidly. 
 

We should not be thinking about copying anything Japan does, they are a total anomaly 

[Nobody Interesting]

6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Japans is on the way up and has just overtaken the USA who are falling rapidly. 
 

We should not be thinking about copying anything Japan does, they are a total anomaly 

But Japan peaked at just over 4%, the UK at just under 11%.

Yes Japan has gone up, but by around 0.2% in only one month so if it falls next month does that mean their way is working?

And if we are using the USA to compare then we need to look at all the legislation they put in place as well as how their food and energy sides function.

I am not saying we should follow Japan's lead but the graph used does not show without doubt that their way is wrong. Simple statistical analysis based on the data on that graph shows that but the data set on just inflation rate proves little on it's own.

Either way, I would hope that there is little doubt or disagreement that what the UK has done is not working as well as others.

[lost]

9 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

I am not saying we should follow Japan's lead but the graph used does not show without doubt that their way is wrong. 

Central banks set interest rates to target inflation in 2 years. They have to consider a whole range of issues from things like cost, demand, demographics, inflation expectations which in turn bring purchases forward and lead to higher wage demands etc..

I actually think Japan may of restarted QE. Their consideration around demographics vastly outweighs all other considerations currently. They have more than twice the number of people dying as they are adding to the population which they expect will set off deflationary forces that will far outweigh any of the other factors:

 

[Neil]

18 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Yes Japan has gone up, but by around 0.2% in only one month so if it falls next month does that mean their way is working?

japan has been going against economic orthodoxy for a couple of decades. it's not working out great for them.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, lost said:

Central banks set interest rates to target inflation in 2 years. They have to consider a whole range of issues from things like cost, demand, demographics, inflation expectations which in turn bring purchases forward and lead to higher wage demands etc..

I actually think Japan may of restarted QE. Their consideration around demographics vastly outweighs all other considerations currently. They have more than twice the number of people dying as they are adding to the population which they expect will set off deflationary forces that will far outweigh any of the other factors:

 

good way to get to net zero.

[steviewevie]

Some idiot moron called Swati Dhingra was the lone MPC member who voted not to raise interest rates. Something to do with overtightening and recessions.

[fraybentos1]

28 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

But Japan peaked at just over 4%, the UK at just under 11%.

Yes Japan has gone up, but by around 0.2% in only one month so if it falls next month does that mean their way is working?

And if we are using the USA to compare then we need to look at all the legislation they put in place as well as how their food and energy sides function.

I am not saying we should follow Japan's lead but the graph used does not show without doubt that their way is wrong. Simple statistical analysis based on the data on that graph shows that but the data set on just inflation rate proves little on it's own.

Either way, I would hope that there is little doubt or disagreement that what the UK has done is not working as well as others.

My point is that Japan's hasn't peaked and it not trending down in the way that other countries are. Let's revisit this in 6 months and see if Japan is a success story. I highly doubt it will be the case. Besides as I have said anyway, Japan is a total anomaly anyway, every other central bank is raising IRs- are they really all wrong as ozanne claims?

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Some idiot moron called Swati Dhingra was the lone MPC member who voted not to raise interest rates. Something to do with overtightening and recessions.

A recession is better than sky high inflation as the other 8 members clearly know.

[Nobody Interesting]

12 minutes ago, Neil said:

japan has been going against economic orthodoxy for a couple of decades. it's not working out great for them.

I don't think orthodox methods are really working that well.

Personally I think the entire system does not work - any system that fails when businesses shut down as they cannot service their debt and then fails again when they open up as they cannot service their customers is not a system that is fit for purpose. But I have long held the view that the modern system is failing and only works for a few.

Which ever way you think I see a mess - a mess here, in the USA, in Japan................ everywhere and one that is onyl going to get worse unless someone somewhere accepts it is failing and trys something different.

[Nobody Interesting]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

My point is that Japan's hasn't peaked and it not trending down in the way that other countries are. Let's revisit this in 6 months and see if Japan is a success story. I highly doubt it will be the case. Besides as I have said anyway, Japan is a total anomaly anyway, every other central bank is raising IRs- are they really all wrong as ozanne claims?

There is no way of knowing if Japan has peaked and one really small rise does not say at all that inflation there will carry on going up whilst ours falls. If food inflation from rice and grains carries on the UK, EU and US inflation rates will all rise again early next year.

As I said in reply to Neil, it is a mess and not one that increasing interest rates and hoping will cure.

[fraybentos1]

UK interest rates to stay higher for longer, Bank of England says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66384289

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

A recession is better than sky high inflation as the other 8 members clearly know.

If you take out the effect of the profits of oil companies, energy companies, food retailers and bans from current UK GDP then we have been in recession for a year already. The profits, at the expense of all of us, have added around 0.6% to GDP - source, ONS

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Nobody Interesting said:

There is no way of knowing if Japan has peaked and one really small rise does not say at all that inflation there will carry on going up whilst ours falls. If food inflation from rice and grains carries on the UK, EU and US inflation rates will all rise again early next year.

As I said in reply to Neil, it is a mess and not one that increasing interest rates and hoping will cure.

You think almost every central bank around the world is 'increasing interest rates and hoping' as if there isn't solid economic reasoning for it.

[Nobody Interesting]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

You think almost every central bank around the world is 'increasing interest rates and hoping' as if there isn't solid economic reasoning for it.

Without other measures, as the USA has done, no it will not work like it has in the past as what the world economy is seeing now is different from the past.

It is a complex issue, that I know you know, and not one that a single measure will ever 'cure'. It may help hide the problem but it is more like a plaster over a 6 inch wound.

[steviewevie]

fun fact..more people own their house outright than own it with a mortgage.

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Without other measures, as the USA has done, no it will not work like it has in the past as what the world economy is seeing now is different from the past.

It is a complex issue, that I know you know, and not one that a single measure will ever 'cure'. It may help hide the problem but it is more like a plaster over a 6 inch wound.

The Gov could absolutely do more. But the boe is independent and all they can do is raise IRs and stop QE which they have done. What more could they do?

[Neil]

10 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

The Gov could absolutely do more. But the boe is independent and all they can do is raise IRs and stop QE which they have done. What more could they do?

only options they have to reduce economic activity, and take pressure off inflation.

[fraybentos1]

11 minutes ago, Neil said:

only options they have to reduce economic activity, and take pressure off inflation.

basically yeah and the only tool they really have to do that is raising IRs which is why they're doing it. Not because they're evil