news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

unemployment vs inflation.

Same as it ever was.

[Neil]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

unemployment vs inflation.

Same as it ever was.

its like no one learned anything from thatcher!

[Guest]

57 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

There is no way of knowing if Japan has peaked and one really small rise does not say at all that inflation there will carry on going up whilst ours falls. If food inflation from rice and grains carries on the UK, EU and US inflation rates will all rise again early next year.

As I said in reply to Neil, it is a mess and not one that increasing interest rates and hoping will cure.

I’ve said this many times before but you raise interest rates when high inflation is down to consumer confidence. High inflation at the moment is due to supply chain issues so raising interest rates doesn’t help as it causes people to have even less money to put back into the economy. Which will in-turn push us towards recession which isn’t what anyone in this country needs.

You look at Spain and Japan, it highlights the other measures that could’ve been taken by our government but for some reason haven’t been. Ultimately as I’ve said the policy at the moment is to make people poorer when things for quite a few are already very tight. 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

unemployment vs inflation.

Same as it ever was.

Who on earth would want unemployment over inflation? Unemployment leads to all sorts of issues.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Who on earth would want unemployment over inflation? Unemployment leads to all sorts of issues.

Discuss.

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Who on earth would want unemployment over inflation? Unemployment leads to all sorts of issues.

and inflation doesn't?

[steviewevie]

Maybe Sunak will be able to boast that he halved inflation or whatever...but it's looking a bit grim for next election...unemployment, no growth, mortgage timebomb etc etc.

[Guest]

At least Andrew Bailey and his chums will have had decent pay rises though. Good for them. 

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

The Gov could absolutely do more. But the boe is independent and all they can do is raise IRs and stop QE which they have done. What more could they do?

Create new tools to use - they have had years to think and create but instead did nothing. Yes I know government needs to be involved too but they also did nothing.

The powers that be use tools created in the 1930's to try and deal with things today in a world economy that is nothing like it was then and wonder why those tools no longer work as they once did.

As the economic mo0del changed then policy needed to change too but here we are using the same tools as we did in 1980 to try and deal with a totally different situation. It is almost like try to stop a leak with a feather duster............................ but to change the tool kit you first need to accept it is no longer 1980.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve said this many times before but you raise interest rates when high inflation is down to consumer confidence. High inflation at the moment is due to supply chain issues so raising interest rates doesn’t help as it causes people to have even less money to put back into the economy. Which will in-turn push us towards recession which isn’t what anyone in this country needs.

You look at Spain and Japan, it highlights the other measures that could’ve been taken by our government but for some reason haven’t been. Ultimately as I’ve said the policy at the moment is to make people poorer when things for quite a few are already very tight. 

As I said in other replies, the tool kit needs changing. What once worked no longer works as it did and as you rightly say a tool designed for one job will not work on the problem we have now.

Anyone looking properly should be asking how supermarkets have doubled profits without an increase in sales when they say all they are doing is passing on their increased costs.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Discuss.

Wait to new AI creates a huge swell of unemployment, inflation will seem like a minor issue.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

As I said in other replies, the tool kit needs changing. What once worked no longer works as it did and as you rightly say a tool designed for one job will not work on the problem we have now.

Anyone looking properly should be asking how supermarkets have doubled profits without an increase in sales when they say all they are doing is passing on their increased costs.

To pay for increased debt at least that’s what the Issa brothers did with Asda then gave us a 10% pay rise while chopping back staff left right and centre . Think they did ok though along with any remaining shareholders … not the colleagues though we got removed from those lovely schemes a few years back 

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

To pay for increased debt at least that’s what the Issa brothers did with Asda then gave us a 10% pay rise while chopping back staff left right and centre . Think they did ok though along with any remaining shareholders … not the colleagues though we got removed from those lovely schemes a few years back 

All part of why the top 5% now have more wealth than ever before and those at the bottom end struggling in countries all over the world number more than ever before in percentage terms.

[fraybentos1]

12 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Create new tools to use - they have had years to think and create but instead did nothing. Yes I know government needs to be involved too but they also did nothing.

The powers that be use tools created in the 1930's to try and deal with things today in a world economy that is nothing like it was then and wonder why those tools no longer work as they once did.

As the economic mo0del changed then policy needed to change too but here we are using the same tools as we did in 1980 to try and deal with a totally different situation. It is almost like try to stop a leak with a feather duster............................ but to change the tool kit you first need to accept it is no longer 1980.

That's on the gov surely not the BoE?

[fraybentos1]

37 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

At least Andrew Bailey and his chums will have had decent pay rises though. Good for them. 

Bailey rejected his pay rise, a 2 second google will tell you that

Edited August 3, 2023 by fraybentos1

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

As I said in other replies, the tool kit needs changing. What once worked no longer works as it did and as you rightly say a tool designed for one job will not work on the problem we have now.

Anyone looking properly should be asking how supermarkets have doubled profits without an increase in sales when they say all they are doing is passing on their increased costs.

It’s blatant profiteering by the supermarkets and nothing is being done about it by the government. They could’ve put price controls in place but they didn’t and instead moaned that we all dared to ask for a pay rise.

Raising interest rates at the moment just funnels more wealth to the already wealthy and does nothing to help inflation. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Ozanne

[kaosmark2]

19 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

ok here's a more recent one then:

 

In the ten years to 2021, the housing stock in England and Wales has grown by just above 6%. The population by a similar amount - 6.5% in England and quite a bit less - 1.4% - in Wales. 

But average UK house prices over the same period went from £167,000 to £270,000 (more in England). Mortgage lending, meanwhile, more than doubled (from £153bn to £316bn) over the same period. The relationship between money supply, aka credit, and house prices is obvious

Turns out the system got rigged to favour buy-to-let landlords over people who actually live in property.

[Crazyfool01]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s blatant profiteering by the supermarkets and nothing is being done about it by the government. They could’ve put price controls in place but they didn’t and instead moaned that we all dared to ask for a pay rise.

Raising interest rates at the moment just funnels more wealth to the already wealthy and does nothing to help inflation. 

tbh price controls wouldn't work I think that was shown that they would just move the increases in price around to avoid them , they certainly shouldn't be allowed the monopolies they do have though ... the brothers with a big control over the pump petrol prices . Why they need more I've not a clue but they just keep purchasing more , our overtime got cut and temps got sacked > so they could meet the interest payments on the loans they took out to buy us we had a period of ASDA austerity 

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Turns out the system got rigged to favour buy-to-let landlords over people who actually live in property.

If anything helped BTL landlords, it was interest rates of 0.1%

[fraybentos1]

19 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s blatant profiteering by the supermarkets and nothing is being done about it by the government. They could’ve put price controls in place but they didn’t and instead moaned that we all dared to ask for a pay rise.

Raising interest rates at the moment just funnels more wealth to the already wealthy and does nothing to help inflation. 

It's like you start every post and think to yourself: 'how many incorrect statements can I make in one post'

[fraybentos1]

Don't suppose stupidly low interest rates fuelled insane house price increases which also funnelled money to the rich...

[kaosmark2]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

If anything helped BTL landlords, it was interest rates of 0.1%

Yes I agree. The base rate should have been ~2% between '08-Truss.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

tbh price controls wouldn't work I think that was shown that they would just move the increases in price around to avoid them , they certainly shouldn't be allowed the monopolies they do have though ... the brothers with a big control over the pump petrol prices . Why they need more I've not a clue but they just keep purchasing more , our overtime got cut and temps got sacked > so they could meet the interest payments on the loans they took out to buy us we had a period of ASDA austerity 

I'm sure with proper scrutiny any legislation could be adapted to prevent companies getting round price controls. There's other things that could've been done like rent controls, a proper cap on energy bills to stop them from spiralling. Ultimately though the government haven't done anything and just left it to the BoE to do the same thing over and over again that doesn't work to reduce the current inflation. The government should've put those measures in place and interest rates should've been left at the levels they were in 2020/early 2021, as that would've ensured inflation was kept manageable and people had some money (not enough) to put back into the economy so it could hopefully grow after the pandemic.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I'm sure with proper scrutiny any legislation could be adapted to prevent companies getting round price controls. There's other things that could've been done like rent controls, a proper cap on energy bills to stop them from spiralling. Ultimately though the government haven't done anything and just left it to the BoE to do the same thing over and over again that doesn't work to reduce the current inflation. The government should've put those measures in place and interest rates should've been left at the levels they were in 2020/early 2021, as that would've ensured inflation was kept manageable and people had some money (not enough) to put back into the economy so it could hopefully grow after the pandemic.

oh definitely things they could do for supermarkets im sure price fixing for supermarkets wouldn't work , but taxing profits might . As it might for some of the astronomic profits of the oil companies 

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

BoE to do the same thing over and over again that doesn't work to reduce the current inflation.

It takes time to feed through to the economy, like a year. They should have started earlier

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

interest rates should've been left at the levels they were in 2020/early 2021

0.1%? You've genuinely lost the plot.