news & politics:discussion

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

i know of several people who've decided not to put their house up for sale at the moment so shoew me every graph you like i know real people are doing what 

 

 

 

As you can see listings shot up from their 2022 lows and will likely continue to do so. But of course data from right move doesn’t matter cause Neil knows a guy. 

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Guess what. If a couple’s two bed house has decreased in value and they want to move to a three bed. That three bed will also have decreased. 

 

 

not necessarily decreased by the same amount it depends on what they want to do not everyonre is trading up.

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Again you talk about scarcity of properties when supply is actually increasing. 

i was talking about how things will go from now until 2025, with the decrease in prices in their minds

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

As you can see listings shot up from their 2022 lows and will likely continue to do so. But of course data from right move doesn’t matter cause Neil knows a guy. 

 i know a few people who've put their  selling plans on hold cos of falling prices.

 

both those graphs show a drop for now.

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

not necessarily decreased by the same amount it depends on what they want to do not everyonre is trading up.

i was talking about how things will go from now until 2025, with the decrease in prices in their minds

People always need to sell for one reason or another. 
 

Also if you think I care about boomers downsizing then you’re very much mistaken. 
 

Falling house prices = a good thing for young people and society generally 

[Neil]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I would imagine as more people's fixed rates end and they move on to the new higher rates the number of properties on the market will only go up.

only if they can avoid the new higher rates by moving?

 

mostly they won't, 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

 i know a few people who've put their  selling plans on hold cos of falling prices.

 

both those graphs show a drop for now.

The first graph shows median prices. The second shows supply at most a brief plateau and clearly no drop so no idea what you’re on about 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

only if they can avoid the new higher rates by moving?

 

mostly they won't, 

Higher rates are the reality people are going to need to get used to. 

[fraybentos1]

And house prices will need to come down to accept this new reality 

[Neil]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

People always need to sell for one reason or another. 
 

Also if you think I care about boomers downsizing then you’re very much mistaken. 
 

 

 

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Falling house prices = a good thing for young people and society generally 

i didn't say different to that, i simply pointed out some market pressures in a falling prices situation.

not everything within falling prices makes thing better for new buyers.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

Higher rates are the reality people are going to need to get used to. 

which means sellers won't be trading up - they'll be pushing up the prices of the cheaper housing as they try not to have a bigger mortgage.

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

The first graph shows median prices. The second shows supply at most a brief plateau and clearly no drop so no idea what you’re on about 

the now ends of both graphs show a drop - not very noticable yet as the drop is very recent, those drops will continue over time.

[steviewevie]

aren't house price drops still fairly modest relative to the rises seen over last decade or so? Will make it a bit more affordable for first time buyers, or people wanting to climb the ladder, but mortgages will be more expensive so not really a win...cash buyers will be happy though, so that's nice. Meanwhile there will be a bunch of people struggling to pay their mortgages now.

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I am currently on a rate of 1.6% until 2016 and we are interested in moving but there is no way we are going to subject ourselves to higher rates unless we really have too.  So we will hold off for a few years.  I would imagine many are holding off until their rates expire and then they have no choice but to move up to them.

exactly what i said, people will avoid selling. 🙂 

[Neil]

Just now, steviewevie said:

aren't house price drops still fairly modest relative to the rises seen over last decade or so? Will make it a bit more affordable for first time buyers, or people wanting to climb the ladder, but mortgages will be more expensive so not really a win...cash buyers will be happy though, so that's nice. Meanwhile there will be a bunch of people struggling to pay their mortgages now.

the drops are modest. nothing is more affordable apart from for cash buyers.

[Neil]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

We are seeing a readjustment...  I think I still disagree they are either are going to be dramatic (for most people) or long term.  

the readjustment is more than just prices, its every person's  opinion of the housing market. whether to sell whether to risk, negative equity, and more.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Shock horror - I don't always disagree with you...

you have just proven frey wrong and me right, so i was pointing that out.

[Neil]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Are you saying people are judgementally shifting their opinions on the house market ?   If so, I totally disagree...

you've said your own position has shifted.

 

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

This is just people reacting to the current cards in front of them.  People still see their house as much of an investment as somewhere to live.  People will still speculate and take risks like negative equity.  

 

speculative buyers won't buy  if they can't reckon on a quick profit on paper.

Nothing fundamentally different is happening here than what has happened in the past

no, nothing different to the past, i 've said how it played out in the past in similar situations. the fall in prices isn't going to be the boon for new buyers  that people like frey want it to be.

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Why does it need pointing out ?   and I proved nothing, its just an opinion.  You act like its a playground.

i gave some market analysis that frey said is wrong,  because he wants the market to drop its knickers for him.its not going to do that.

[Neil]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

What position ?   I don't remember having a position lol

you said you've changed your mind on selling and moving.

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

I bought a house as much as an investment as somewhere to live.  I still have that view point.  

The fall in prices will have a small impact on the bottom end of the market.  Won't be much help with increased interest rates.  Lower deposits will help.

won't be much help with fewer houses on the market.

[fraybentos1]

18 minutes ago, Neil said:

you have just proven frey wrong and me right, so i was pointing that out.

You do realise that just cause you have anecdotal evidence of a few people doing something, that doesn’t make it scientific fact 

 

[fraybentos1]

10 minutes ago, Neil said:

you said you've changed your mind on selling and moving.

won't be much help with fewer houses on the market.

Show me how there is fewer houses on the market. Actual data please 

[fraybentos1]

13 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You won't be able to show data on how many fewer houses are on the market than their otherwise might have been.  For example, I would move but I am holding off.  There will be no data for that.

I’m meaning data for how many houses are up for sale full stop. If people aren’t gonna sell and wait then this will surely be reflected in those numbers? 

[Neil]

38 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Show me how there is fewer houses on the market. Actual data please 

Read Barry's post about how his house won't be on the market.

[Neil]

40 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

You do realise that just cause you have anecdotal evidence of a few people doing something, that doesn’t make it scientific fact 

 

I didn't claim it as scientific fact. Just as something that would happen 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

Read Barry's post about how his house won't be on the market.

Read my post about anecdotes not data. You’ve provided 0 data as per just your opinion.