news & politics:discussion

[mcshed]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Some B&S thoughts:

1. Brilliant Labour expectation management.

2. Superb Labour GOTV operation.

3. Both suggest a significant uptick in party management after Starmer's recent backroom reshuffle.

4. Galloway got a lot more than Muslim votes.

5. By rooting so openly for Galloway, the far-left has done itself a great deal of harm inside Labour. He really is a repulsive twat. 

6. Hubris is always the Tory Achilles heal. It hurt them big time here. The Tory candidate was basically hiding the whole time.

7. The LibDem vote share was down only 1.3%. Compare and contrast with the fall in the Labour vote share in Chesham & Amersham.

8. We need to stop talking about politics as normal. We don't know what normal is anymore.

9. Above all else, the significance of this is that Labour did not lose and the headlines wont be about Starmer's leadership for the next few month.

Is this you posting on Political Betting earlier or are you copy pasting someone else's opinions?

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, topmarksbri said:

I know we have a wide range of Labour opinions on here, but hope we can all celebrate the tories and Galloway taking a loss at least! 

Indeed! That news has cheered me up this morning.

[Radiochicken]

54 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Never seen such a bad result celebrated as such a resounding, vindicating victory.

The lowest % for Labour ever in the constituency and by a wide margin. If Labour can expect a -7.4% swing across the country from 2019, its the end.

For context Labour lost 9% in hartlepool. You can attribute the 1.6% difference to the better candidate (the sister of the formerly murdered MP no less) and the increase in Labour spend.

Glad for Kim Leadbetter, but Starmer limps on. In the long run, is that a good thing? I don’t think so.

Jesus 😂

[topmarksbri]

52 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Never seen such a bad result celebrated as such a resounding, vindicating victory.

The lowest % for Labour ever in the constituency and by a wide margin. If Labour can expect a -7.4% swing across the country from 2019, its the end.

For context Labour lost 9% in hartlepool. You can attribute the 1.6% difference to the better candidate (the sister of the formerly murdered MP no less) and the increase in Labour spend.

Glad for Kim Leadbetter, but Starmer limps on. In the long run, is that a good thing? I don’t think so.

Local elections are completely different beasts to national and people vote for MP and local operation rather than feeling like they're voting for national party/prime minister. That was true in C+A/Hartlepool and now in B+S. You cannot use them as a bell weather for either good nor bad and you also cannot extrapolate it out to a national level because the issues which are unique to each constituency are just that - unique. 

[mattiloy]

55 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Just take the L mate...

Also ludicrous to extrapolate the -7.4 percent across the country fs it’s a by election and george Galloway got over 20 percent. 
 

Would your logic apply to the Lib Dem win 2 weeks ago in C&A ? No of course not cause by your logic it would mean the tories losing 20 percent of their vote. Ludicrous way to look at things.

Its another really bad result and had it not been framed as a binary consequence (ie Starmer goes if he loses and stays if he wins) it would not be seen as anything other than just that.

The harsh truth is that if there is an L from this small win, its on everybody because it seems that people are allowing a bad result to be dishonestly spun into a win, it prolongs the leadership of Starmer and on the evidence so far, that is not going to improve on 2019, let alone deliver a Labour govt.

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by mattiloy

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Local elections are completely different beasts to national and people vote for MP and local operation rather than feeling like they're voting for national party/prime minister. That was true in C+A/Hartlepool and now in B+S. You cannot use them as a bell weather for either good nor bad and you also cannot extrapolate it out to a national level because the issues which are unique to each constituency are just that - unique. 

This thread isn't the best place for nuanced political discussion. Most of it boils down to the extremes of mattiloy despising Starmer and on the flip side Ozanne having a weird obsession with him.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, mattiloy said:

Its another really bad result and had it not been framed as a binary consequence (ie Starmer goes if he loses and stays if he wins) it would not be seen as anything other than just that.

The harsh truth is that if there is an L from this small win, its on everybody because it seems that people are allowing a bad result to be dishonestly spun into a win, it prolongs the leadership of Starmer and on the evidence so far, that is not going to improve on 2019, let alone deliver a Labour govt.

 

It isn't really a bad result, defo not an amazing one either but with Galloway taking 20 percent it was always gonna be tough. Can you at least admit that you trying to extrapolate national trends from this one by election seat was ludicrous?

I remember in 2017 when Labour lost and there was euphoria as if they had won haha 

Obviously Labour in 2024 (or whenever) will best the 2019 result fs, that much is not difficult. I'll bet you like 100 quid at least on that if you like?

[mattiloy]

19 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Local elections are completely different beasts to national and people vote for MP and local operation rather than feeling like they're voting for national party/prime minister. That was true in C+A/Hartlepool and now in B+S. You cannot use them as a bell weather for either good nor bad and you also cannot extrapolate it out to a national level because the issues which are unique to each constituency are just that - unique. 

I accept that, but 3 local elections in which the Labour vote was down by 9%, 7.6% and 11% where Labour was the incumbent in 2/3 - its not the kind of form to turn things around from 2019 either is it?

Since its the euros heres a football analogy:

England only go through from their world cup qualifying group via the playoffs where they face San Marino whom they beat on penalties after a very unconvincing display. Should the manager stay or go before the world cup? 

Edited July 2, 2021 by mattiloy

[Radiochicken]

11 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Its another really bad result and had it not been framed as a binary consequence (ie Starmer goes if he loses and stays if he wins) it would not be seen as anything other than just that.

The harsh truth is that if there is an L from this small win, its on everybody because it seems that people are allowing a bad result to be dishonestly spun into a win, it prolongs the leadership of Starmer and on the evidence so far, that is not going to improve on 2019, let alone deliver a Labour govt.

 

“if Stamer loses he goes, he if wins he stays.”

You might want to take a break from the twitter/media bubble. 

“People are allowing a bad result to be dishonestly spun into a win”

You weirdly seem a bit upset about it, but Labour won.

 

[topmarksbri]

34 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I accept that, but 3 local elections in which the Labour vote was down by 9%, 7.6% and 11% where Labour was the incumbent in 2/3 - its not the kind of form to turn things around from 2019 either is it?

Since its the euros heres a football analogy:

England only go through from their world cup qualifying group via the playoffs where they face San Marino whom they beat on penalties after a very unconvincing display. Should the manager stay or go before the world cup? 

Ha I see what you're saying but don't think the analogy holds, the manager would definitely keep their job through the WC.

I agree that it's not great form but I'm not sure that trying to draw trends from by elections as a whole makes sense when each has unique factors which influence results. I don't think anyone should be celebrating thinking that it's a sign that Labour will win at next election but equally I don't think that the drop in vote share should be taken as a sign that things are going to go awfully at next election - but it seems like both sides of the party are choosing to interpret the results in a way which confirms their pre-existing beliefs. 

But we can all celebrate the Tories and George the cat getting beat! 

[steviewevie]

Labour definitely still in a bit of a crisis...but this result will take the heat off Starmer a bit over this summer. Even if labour had lost there probably wouldn't be a move as no one really stands out as a replacement. Just have to see how Starmer does over next 12 months...tory coaltiion around brexit could be splintering now brexit is over, vaccine bounce over, tory sleaze, difficult decisions on economy and spending/cuts etc. might be a very different picture this time next year. If not and labour still struggling and there is an obvious replacement then could be curtains for Starmer.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Galloway says he will challenge result in court; unclear why. 

[Haan]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Labour definitely still in a bit of a crisis...but this result will take the heat off Starmer a bit over this summer. Even if labour had lost there probably wouldn't be a move as no one really stands out as a replacement. Just have to see how Starmer does over next 12 months...tory coaltiion around brexit could be splintering now brexit is over, vaccine bounce over, tory sleaze, difficult decisions on economy and spending/cuts etc. might be a very different picture this time next year. If not and labour still struggling and there is an obvious replacement then could be curtains for Starmer.

i think the "#oneruleforthem" thing regarding the sleaze could definitely cut through if communicated well enough, gavin williamson and sajid david have blunders and scandals in them that labour could pounce on too. Labour still need to offer an alternate vision though, but so much can change in a matter of a months so we'll see.

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Galloway says he will challenge result in court; unclear why. 

Trump wannabe

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Trump wannabe

Still better than the time he lost his seat at a general election and went on a bizarre rant about hyenas, lions and zionists.

 

The far left 😂😂

[Ryan1984]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Trump wannabe

He came third. Not even second!

[squirrelarmy]

4 hours ago, Ozanne said:

So much for the impressive Tory vote, they were supposed to do really well but lost votes still. 

That is really surprising. Knowing the area and the people who live there I was convinced it was going to fall to the Tory menace. 

[Gilgamesh69]

Yeah i'm a little confused about this too. Why are people touting this as some great victory for the labour party? Holding a seat by only a small margin and actually losing some of the vote share is hardly a triumphant moment

[mattiloy]

39 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Ha I see what you're saying but don't think the analogy holds, the manager would definitely keep their job through the WC.

I agree that it's not great form but I'm not sure that trying to draw trends from by elections as a whole makes sense when each has unique factors which influence results. I don't think anyone should be celebrating thinking that it's a sign that Labour will win at next election but equally I don't think that the drop in vote share should be taken as a sign that things are going to go awfully at next election - but it seems like both sides of the party are choosing to interpret the results in a way which confirms their pre-existing beliefs. 

But we can all celebrate the Tories and George the cat getting beat! 

Fair comment. At least it looks like the competing theories will be tested at a GE.
I don’t think a change of leader would necessarily rescue things at this stage but I do think the party would be in significantly better shape even in defeat. Instead the Starmese malaise stumbles on.

[fraybentos1]

18 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

Yeah i'm a little confused about this too. Why are people touting this as some great victory for the labour party? Holding a seat by only a small margin and actually losing some of the vote share is hardly a triumphant moment

Don't think anyone is claiming it is a triumph?  It is not an amazing result but they were expected to lose it and they had Galloway getting 20 percent with his only intention being to take Labour votes. It is a decent hold all things considered.

[zahidf]

ITS COMING HOME 

 

[steviewevie]

46 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

That is really surprising. Knowing the area and the people who live there I was convinced it was going to fall to the Tory menace. 

why? brexity area?

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, zahidf said:

ITS COMING HOME 

 

good grief.

[steviewevie]

I wonder what result would have been if Galloway hadn't had stood.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

That is really surprising. Knowing the area and the people who live there I was convinced it was going to fall to the Tory menace. 

It surprised me too, I’m super happy about it though. I also had a dream last night where I went to Starmers for dinner so I’m doubly happy today.