news & politics:discussion

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Doesn't voting green make a hung parliament less likely? I guess depends where voting.

I think there's 3 seats that Greens have a realistic chance of winning, Brighton, Norwich and Bristol. Those are generally the ones spoken about when a Progressive Alliance is discussed as the ones where other parties would stand down for the Greens.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I think there's 3 seats that Greens have a realistic chance of winning, Brighton, Norwich and Bristol. Those are generally the ones spoken about when a Progressive Alliance is discussed as the ones where other parties would stand down for the Greens.

yeah...I mean if you want to get the tories out then people have to vote for the non tory party in that constituency with best chance of winning...so in some areas that's lib dems, in some it's labour, and maybe in some places that's green. That was kind of what people were trying to do last time though and tories got a lovely big majority, and probably will next time too.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...I mean if you want to get the tories out then people have to vote for the non tory party in that constituency with best chance of winning...so in some areas that's lib dems, in some it's labour, and maybe in some places that's green. That was kind of what people were trying to do last time though and tories got a lovely big majority, and probably will next time too.

It was nowhere near enough sadly. However there are signs people were doing it in the recent by-elections which is encouraging but as I said before it needs Starmer/Labour to fully get own board to stand a proper chance of working.

[mattiloy]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...I mean if you want to get the tories out then people have to vote for the non tory party in that constituency with best chance of winning...so in some areas that's lib dems, in some it's labour, and maybe in some places that's green. That was kind of what people were trying to do last time though and tories got a lovely big majority, and probably will next time too.

Wouldn’t be so sure. Think the corruption thing will be the unravelling of Boris.

As I see it - a big danger from that is that Starmer gets in on a majority, sees it as vindication of neo-Blairism and we have at least 5 years of the same cash for honours, shitty pro market reforms, interventionism overseas etc, and Labour becomes a pariah for another generation until the tories fuck it up again and nothing ever gets better.

Edited August 11, 2021 by mattiloy

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Wouldn’t be so sure. Think the corruption thing will be the unravelling of Boris.

As I see it - a big danger from that is that Starmer gets in on a majority, sees it as vindication of neo-Blairism and we have at least 5 years of the same cash for honours, shitty pro market reforms, interventionism overseas etc, and Labour becomes a pariah for another generation until the tories fuck it up again and nothing ever gets better.

 I think it's a massive task for labour to even get to hung parliament territory, and I can't see labour winning or Starmer ever being PM. But, just have to see how things go over next 12 months or so I guess. Johnson doesn't seem to have any fixed ideology, he'll just do whatever works, whatever makes him popular...makes it very difficult for labour to pin him down. Starmer doesn't seem to have an ideology either, but when in opposition that just makes him look like an opportunist.

[mattiloy]

Just now, steviewevie said:

 I think it's a massive task for labour to even get to hung parliament territory, and I can't see labour winning or Starmer ever being PM. But, just have to see how things go over next 12 months or so I guess. Johnson doesn't seem to have any fixed ideology, he'll just do whatever works, whatever makes him popular...makes it very difficult for labour to pin him down. Starmer doesn't seem to have an ideology either, but when in opposition that just makes him look like an opportunist.

Mm maybe. Boris’ ministers are shite tho and they are the ones doing the reforming. The only popular one is Sunak who soon will begin fiscal tightening and henceforth see his star fall.

And then its not as big a task as you might think. A 3/4% swing tory-labour suddenly becomes hung parliament territory, less still with tactical voting. I think Boris, as Trump, is so focused on the gravy train rather than the being PM that the stink is only going to get worse and Starmer basically doesnt need to do anything, just to appear not corrupt may be enough.

[Guest]

It would be the biggest swing in history for Labour to win a majority (I think) so it's pretty unlikely to happen in my opinion.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, mattiloy said:

Mm maybe. Boris’ ministers are shite tho and they are the ones doing the reforming. The only popular one is Sunak who soon will begin fiscal tightening and henceforth see his star fall.

And then its not as big a task as you might think. A 3/4% swing tory-labour suddenly becomes hung parliament territory, less still with tactical voting. I think Boris, as Trump, is so focused on the gravy train rather than the being PM that the stink is only going to get worse and Starmer basically doesnt need to do anything, just to appear not corrupt may be enough.

yeah, agreed that labour's fortunes will be mostly based on how much the government fuck up....but still, they have to look competent, and starmer is still not very popular.

[fraybentos1]

3 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Labour voters posting when the tories make gains in the polls is truly bizarre to me .... its like me posting the premier league table when my team  are bottom,  if im not keen on the manager I still  wouldn't be posting it .... and id still be backing my team whoever leads it ..... maybe hoping that the incumbent might change 

This is a weird opinion. They aren’t necessarily making gains it’s often naturally margin of error stuff. The football analogy makes no sense.

Some people post only when it’s positive for Labour which is so dumb cause you’re not actually seeing what’s happening. Look at all polls or none at all.  

 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

This is a weird opinion. They aren’t necessarily making gains it’s often naturally margin of error stuff. The football analogy makes no sense.

Some people post only when it’s positive for Labour which is so dumb cause you’re not actually seeing what’s happening. Look at all polls or none at all.  

 

I like being weird  🙂 … obviously you would still be seeing the polls … you can’t not see stuff … but it’s fair to say I’d post a table when my team were doing well … I’d also see when they weren’t doing so well … but wouldn’t post it 

[steviewevie]

some people post polls that favour labour as they want labour to win, others post polls that don't favour labour cause they hate starmer or ozanne.

[steviewevie]

Poll...back to pre-pandemic normal...

 

[Guest]

 

Starmer calls for Gavin Williamson to be sacked.

[mattiloy]

56 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, agreed that labour's fortunes will be mostly based on how much the government fuck up....but still, they have to look competent, and starmer is still not very popular.

If you look at the detail on that yougov poll, you’ll see that a decent amount of the libdem vote has gone to Labour which is why its held up so well. Honestly with how dire Starmer has been he doesnt deserve it. But airhead lib dem voters are horny for the superficial shit like the knighthood and the former DPP in the same way that tory voters are horny for Rees Moggs accent and big words irrespective of the politics.

In any case, I reckon he’ll make half a fist of courting the middle with a few more tory scandals/rows. Voters are fickle as football fans, it happens slowly, then all of a sudden.

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

I like being weird  🙂 … obviously you would still be seeing the polls … you can’t not see stuff … but it’s fair to say I’d post a table when my team were doing well … I’d also see when they weren’t doing so well … but wouldn’t post it 

But they aren’t doing well. Different polls show different things and it’s mostly within margin of error. One poll showing Labour +2 means fuck all cause it’s within MoE. It is utterly meaningless. If anything it hinders people as they will see selective polls and think aw Labour are doing alright the gap is closing. When the average of all the polls (only thing really worth anything) shows the opposite. 

 

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

some people post polls that favour labour as they want labour to win, others post polls that don't favour labour cause they hate starmer or ozanne.

Yeah cause nothing will help Labour win quite  like posting every fifth poll conducted cause it shows marginal Labour gains lol. Maybe joining the party or campaigning might be a better idea. Just a thought. 

[steviewevie]

Ah fray and his shitty little lols. Lol. Already a member actually fray. Lol.

[Crazyfool01]

On 8/2/2021 at 5:59 PM, fraybentos1 said:

Imagine my shock when I saw an unfavourable poll for Labour not immediately posted in here like any good Labour polling is lol 

 

31 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

But they aren’t doing well. Different polls show different things and it’s mostly within margin of error. One poll showing Labour +2 means fuck all cause it’s within MoE. It is utterly meaningless. If anything it hinders people as they will see selective polls and think aw Labour are doing alright the gap is closing. When the average of all the polls (only thing really worth anything) shows the opposite. 

 

Yeah cause nothing will help Labour win quite  like posting every fifth poll conducted cause it shows marginal Labour gains lol. Maybe joining the party or campaigning might be a better idea. Just a thought. 

id agree utterly meaningless 🙂 

[Guest]

When I see Labour making gains in the polls it makes me happy therefore I want to post them. I like feeling happy about politics.

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

 

id agree utterly meaningless 🙂 

You really don't get it do you?

I'll try one final time even though I think it is obvious what I am getting at. To take your football analogy, when ozanne does this it is like posting every time Crystal Palace get a win but never when they lose which would give an impression they are doing better than they are and are going to win the league. You'd be pretty disappointed come May if you did this.

Yes I post in other polls sometimes cause I still find it hilarious that a guy who claims to be a politics nerd can understand polling so little, not to mention his utterly strange Starmer obsession. The other day I saw that Redfield wilson poll on twitter and I knew he'd have posted it on here. Lo and behold he had done. Today I saw that poll and I knew he would have ignored it. It is baffling.

 

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

When I see Labour making gains in the polls it makes me happy therefore I want to post them. I like feeling happy about politics.

Have you ever heard of margin of error?

Most of the ones you post are Labour plus 2 which isn't a gain necessarily and even then they are still behind. It will just make you more disappointed come election time if you ignore facts.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

You really don't get it do you?

I'll try one final time even though I think it is obvious what I am getting at. To take your football analogy, when ozanne does this it is like posting every time Crystal Palace get a win but never when they lose which would give an impression they are doing better than they are and are going to win the league. You'd be pretty disappointed come May if you did this.

Yes I post in other polls sometimes cause I still find it hilarious that a guy who claims to be a politics nerd can understand polling so little, not to mention his utterly strange Starmer obsession. The other day I saw that Redfield wilson poll on twitter and I knew he'd have posted it on here. Lo and behold he had done. Today I saw that poll and I knew he would have ignored it. It is baffling.

 

does it matter really though ? its efests ... no one is being harmed its easy to skip past as I do ... to far from an election to be relevant for me ... personally i find the starmer love baffling too .... that said theres people I like in other fields that aren't politics .. so each to their own .... its not worth being bothered about .....

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

does it matter really though ? its efests ... no one is being harmed its easy to skip past as I do ... to far from an election to be relevant for me ... personally i find the starmer love baffling too .... that said theres people I like in other fields that aren't politics .. so each to their own .... its not worth being bothered about .....

Exactly, it's easy to skip past and I'm pretty sure me only posting the polls I do has no bearing on what others think about the state of the parties. I'm sure if others are that interested they would find the information for themselves.

I can like whoever I want to like, I don't need permission from anyone.

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

does it matter really though ? its efests ... no one is being harmed its easy to skip past as I do ... to far from an election to be relevant for me ... personally i find the starmer love baffling too .... that said theres people I like in other fields that aren't politics .. so each to their own .... its not worth being bothered about .....

I guess it doesn’t matter really tho, but I guess the same can be said for everything on this forum in the grand scheme of things. Still doesn’t stop stuff being annoying though.

[steviewevie]

What's creepy is Fray's obsession with ozanne.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I guess it doesn’t matter really tho, but I guess the same can be said for everything on this forum in the grand scheme of things. Still doesn’t stop stuff being annoying though.

loads of stuff is I agree ... lots of positives here also ... probably better to dwell on those ... and take the positives from the help members of this forum provide  to complete strangers