news & politics:discussion

[Guest]

This is big. 

[Guest]

Once upon a time I was told off for saying the Tories were at fault. Looks like I was right all along. 

[steviewevie]

Looks like there could be a uturn on the corporation tax cut next.

[steviewevie]

7 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Once upon a time I was told off for saying the Tories were at fault. Looks like I was right all along. 

You read the article? kind of pro Truss and Kwarteng's plan, saying mini budget wasn't the whole reason economy is screwed, they were a bit unlucky, it was delivered badly, and they should stick with it but get the messaging right.

[phimill]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Just got my first rebate on my energy bill from my energy supplier via the government.

EDF are transferring it back into people's bank accounts rather than just crediting the customer accounts.   Lots of people who aren't good with money will spend it and it won't have the impact required I feel.

6 installments of £66/67.  People should put it to one side and use it downstream but they won't.

EON are reducing your DD - but if you are comfortable paying your current DD rate you can request they return your DD to the usual value and thus you keep £400 in your account in credit until you are hit by the rises (i am fixed until August so should help me then)

[Neil]

so how long do we think truss has, i reckon she'll be gone by xmas if tory polling doesn't improve.

[Neil]

we need a by election to ram home  just how weak the tory vote is.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

You read the article? kind of pro Truss and Kwarteng's plan, saying mini budget wasn't the whole reason economy is screwed, they were a bit unlucky, it was delivered badly, and they should stick with it but get the messaging right.

Just pointing out that once again I was right by highlighting that the Tories blame everyone else but themselves, yet when I highlight it I get people shouting at me telling me off. My big brain becomes a burden 😉

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, OverlyComplicated said:

Well certainly the huge change in polling is because people don't like Liz and are scared of her cavalier approach to the economy not because everyone loved Starmer's conference speech but Starmer is benefitting more than others might.

Starmer's whole pitch since taking over is that he is a boring, dependable safe pair of hands. This was to try and reassure swing voters who were scared by Corbyn that Labour were a safe option. He also hoped this boring but effective lawyer look would contrast with the bloated showmanship of Boris so Starmer has spent the years saying I'm dull but competent. Now Loony Liz comes along and people are looking for another option and it just so happens that the other side have gone for safe and sensible which is perfect for those centre ground voters worried about the economy.

What Starmer has managed to do quite successfully is not look a scary lefty to appeal to tory voters who don't like Truss, but also appeal to some on left and also red wall pro brexit voters who switched to tory in 2019 with talk of nationalised railways and state owned energy companies. And yes, maybe his boring persona now looks more attractive than the continuos chaos coming out of these successive tory governments. This mini budget and it's repercussions is such a gift to Labour.

[steviewevie]

[Guest]

Just now, OverlyComplicated said:

It's certainly a pitch that suits his personality but you're naive to think it isn't still a pitch. If Starmer was behind in the polls going into an election then he'd start trying to show a more human side of him. Think Gordon Brown smiling or Ed Miliband "Hell yes I'm tough enough."

The polls show Labour taking votes from the Lib Dem’s which indicates that are becoming more popular not that it’s just down to the Tories being crap.

The data is there, it’s just that some people refuse to acknowledge it. 

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Just pointing out that once again I was right by highlighting that the Tories blame everyone else but themselves, yet when I highlight it I get people shouting at me telling me off. My big brain becomes a burden 😉

Are you honestly alright? You defo need some time away from this thread as you are completely losing the plot. Posting articles which negate your point then emphasising how smart you are all the time. It is genuinely bizarre. 

[Guest]

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

12 hours ago, Kurosagi said:

Well I'm struggling to come up with many plausible scenarios for how this plays out, so feel free to add to the list:

1. A VonC would need 30-40 tory mps to support it to trigger a GE (tory mps who would be voting to lose their own jobs if the polls are to be believed).
2. An organised rebellion by backbenchers to force out Truss and coronate someone (probably Sunak) to calm the markets.
3. Two more years of listening to JRM play his fiddle while UK PLC burns.
4. Truss says sorry, sacks Kwarteng, installs Sunak (keep your enemies close) as part of a 'cabinet of tory unity' mini reshuffle.
5. err, anything else?

After the 1922 shambles, and her inability to say sorry and instead blame 'bad comms', I guess options 2 or 3 are looking most likely.

I think bringing Sunak in would probably help her actually. If he'd be willing. People see him as a more steady hand, rightly or wrongly (probably rightly compared to Kwarteng!).

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Just got my first rebate on my energy bill from my energy supplier via the government.

EDF are transferring it back into people's bank accounts rather than just crediting the customer accounts.   Lots of people who aren't good with money will spend it and it won't have the impact required I feel.

6 installments of £66/67.  People should put it to one side and use it downstream but they won't.

Interesting - ours has just been taken directly off our bill (Bulb).

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

Interesting - ours has just been taken directly off our bill (Bulb).

Same with octopus 🐙 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, OverlyComplicated said:

I'm literally saying that the competent but not adventurous image that Starmer is putting forward is particularly appealing at the moment. So you're not wrong whilst people are put off by Truss they are also looking at Keir and thinking good, I'd quite like politics to be boring for a while.

However the fact that you are getting Lib Dem to Labour switchers isn't concrete proof that everyone loves Keir. You could be a Lib Dem voter who is genuinely scared of Truss crashing the economy, you could be a former Labour voter scared off by Corbyn but just coming home, you could be a Tory remainer who jumped Lib Dem on that issue but now prepared to vote Labour when confronted with the Truss disaster. Polls are useful, they track lots of things but it is naive in the extreme to think of them as definitive proof of any particular argument.

Treat polling numbers like former Aberdeen manager Ebbe Skovdahl treated statistics.

"They are like mini-skirts, they can show you alot but they hide some very important things."

Oh yeah it isn’t proof that everyone loves Keir but it shows that the total package of the Labour Party is winning people over. Which will be a combination of the leader, the Labour brand being seen as less toxic, decent policy announcements and a competent Shadow front bench.

All those aspects are winning people over which is what you need to have a shot at winning an election. 

[steviewevie]

43 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I think bringing Sunak in would probably help her actually. If he'd be willing. People see him as a more steady hand, rightly or wrongly (probably rightly compared to Kwarteng!).

to be chancellor? Can't see that. I can see him replacing her though.

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Oh yeah it isn’t proof that everyone loves Keir but it shows that the total package of the Labour Party is winning people over. Which will be a combination of the leader, the Labour brand being seen as less toxic, decent policy announcements and a competent Shadow front bench.

All those aspects are winning people over which is what you need to have a shot at winning an election. 

yeah, there is some push/pull there...but if Tories were to replace Truss/Kwarteng, steady the ship and over time things improved that support could very easily go back to tory I reckon.

[Guest]

Sunak was fined by the police in Partygate and his popularity ratings weren’t great but then again they are much better than Truss’!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, there is some push/pull there...but if Tories were to replace Truss/Kwarteng, steady the ship and over time things improved that support could very easily go back to tory I reckon.

Without a doubt some of it would but I saw someone online who has experience in this area say that it seems to be much more than that and voters have shifted to Labour. Annoyingly I can’t find the piece though!

[steviewevie]

She's toast. Amazing if she gets kicked out so quickly.

 

[steviewevie]

Who replaces Truss?

Mordaunt, Wallace, Gove, Shapps, Sunak or Johnson...or Braverman?!

BET NOW!

[Zoo Music Girl]

13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

to be chancellor? Can't see that. I can see him replacing her though.

I actually can see it, weirdly. But I think anything is possible right now. I think she'd rather bring him in as chancellor than quit. Equally can see him replacing her if the unrest keeps growing.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

She's toast. Amazing if she gets kicked out so quickly.

 

They’d have to go to the country if they replaced their leader again!