news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Why is the energy price cap going up again? It was my understanding that the cap was based on prior months' prices i.e. what the gas was actually bought for at the time months in advance, which is why it was easily explainable that energy/fuel prices would not immediately drop when the market price does. Haven't gas prices been falling gradually since then so when setting the price cap for April 2023 (i.e. looking back at the last few months), why has the cap gone up?

it's going up to maybe closer to what regulator sets it to without govt intervention? so govt spends less on that and can spend more on those who need it most? Plus, we have no idea where gas prices will be by next spring.

[hodgey123]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I don’t agree with it but it’s because energy firms by their gas in bulk in advance when the wholesale cost was rising.

That's what I thought, but surely that gas has now already been used and replaced by the gas that they would have had to buy at cheaper rates when the price has been falling steadily over the last few months? Unless the companies have all bought absolutely ridiculous quantities at a high price which they have not been able to shift?

[hodgey123]

Just now, steviewevie said:

it's going up to maybe closer to what regulator sets it to without govt intervention? so govt spends less on that and can spend more on those who need it most? Plus, we have no idea where gas prices will be by next spring.

But is the energy price cap for everyone related to what the government is going to spend on subsidising it for people who need it? I agree with the means-tested approach - I am very fortunate to be in a position where the extra £66 a month I am getting is not really needed but would make a world of difference to someone else. 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

That's what I thought, but surely that gas has now already been used and replaced by the gas that they would have had to buy at cheaper rates when the price has been falling steadily over the last few months? Unless the companies have all bought absolutely ridiculous quantities at a high price which they have not been able to shift?

I could be wrong as I don’t know a huge deal about it but from what I can read the price of gas per Therm is 325p currently, it was 115p last Nov and normally was 85p. So whilst the cost has gone down recently it’s still high so our prices apparently have to go up as well.

[hodgey123]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I could be wrong as I don’t know a huge deal about it but from what I can read the price of gas per Therm is 325p currently, it was 115p last Nov and normally was 85p. So whilst the cost has gone down recently it’s still high so our prices apparently have to go up as well.

Yeah I guess still higher than normal, but lower than the absolute peak which drove the most recent price cap. Who knows 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

But is the energy price cap for everyone related to what the government is going to spend on subsidising it for people who need it? I agree with the means-tested approach - I am very fortunate to be in a position where the extra £66 a month I am getting is not really needed but would make a world of difference to someone else. 

by increasing cap means less govt spending, especially if gas prices come down and with warmer weather etc...whether they will spend more on subsidising bills for lower income households is unknown, but they have hinted that's what will happen. I agree that it is better, but probably complicated and they didn't have time to come up with something before this winter, although could have just extended what Sunak did in the spring I guess.

[steviewevie]

hints that benefits will still go up inline with inflation, triple lock will remain, even a minimum wage increase.

I wonder if they will bin HS2. I am in two minds about. I think we should have more trains, less cars, but it is super expensive and Chris Packham doesn't like it and I love Chris Packham.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Yeah I guess still higher than normal, but lower than the absolute peak which drove the most recent price cap. Who knows 

Ultimately the firms that take in billions every quarter should be paying this not people that have had their money stretched as it is. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

hints that benefits will still go up inline with inflation, triple lock will remain, even a minimum wage increase.

I wonder if they will bin HS2. I am in two minds about. I think we should have more trains, less cars, but it is super expensive and Chris Packham doesn't like it and I love Chris Packham.

probably better to put that money back into regional bus services ... they wont though as we cant find any drivers 

[fred quimby]

12 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Yeah I guess still higher than normal, but lower than the absolute peak which drove the most recent price cap. Who knows 

Way down from the peak, mainly due to everyone topping up storage so no demand

Edited November 17, 2022 by fred quimby

[steviewevie]

some good tax decisions?...maybe helps Labour if they get in?

[hodgey123]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

some good tax decisions?...maybe helps Labour if they get in?

Yep some good decisions - I would personally go further on gains/dividends and the windfall tax etc. but every little helps I guess. Politically it should be suicide for them to be adopting so many Labour-like policies but doubt that is how it will play out with the public, so unfortunately will be left for Labour to try and hammer home the message.

[cellar]

Just now, hodgey123 said:

Yep some good decisions - I would personally go further on gains/dividends and the windfall tax etc. but every little helps I guess. Politically it should be suicide for them to be adopting so many Labour-like policies but doubt that is how it will play out with the public, so unfortunately will be left for Labour to try and hammer home the message.

Agreed, I wish they had increased the rate of CGT and not just reduced the allowance. But the fact that we got measures that target Divs, CGT, HR Tax and windfall taxes is more than I expected we would get.

[Crazyfool01]

600 k on UC to meet a work coach to increase hours .? wow 

[lost]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

 Politically it should be suicide for them to be adopting so many Labour-like policies but doubt that is how it will play out with the public

I think I read the other day if Nigel Farage was to return to politics he could capture 1 in every 4 votes currently. I'm not sure he would though without PR.

[steviewevie]

defense spending to be reviewed....i.e. not going to go up by 3%. What will Wallace do?

[steviewevie]

good news on education spending increases, needs it.

[steviewevie]

I'd love to continue to give you my incisive commentary but I'm off to watch Wakanda Forever.

[steviewevie]

extra money for NHS too. Go Hunt!

(but where are these cuts going to be, and why haven't I left for the cinema yet?)

[hodgey123]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

defense spending to be reviewed....i.e. not going to go up by 3%. What will Wallace do?

Welcome this too - seems completely unnecessary to be spending so much on defence at a time our internal affairs are not exactly in order anyway.

[Guest]

2 years of inflationary spending cuts then 3 years of flat spending. Let the good times roll. 

[steviewevie]

 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

2 years of inflationary spending cuts then 3 years of flat spending. Let the good times roll. 

A bit pointless looking that far ahead anyway given the very realistic possibility the Tories won't be in government to implement the flat spending. Probably just meat thrown to the markets for 'stability'.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

 

Austerity 2.0. There it is. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

A bit pointless looking that far ahead anyway given the very realistic possibility the Tories won't be in government to implement the flat spending. Probably just meat thrown to the markets for 'stability'.

It’s still 5 years or so of good old austerity. Inflationary spending cuts isn’t good and capital spending being cut when the country is in the state it’s in isn’t good either.