news & politics:discussion

[kaosmark2]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Whatever one might think of the budget itself, they’ve kinda gone for the worst of both worlds as it doesn’t looks like they’ll win over a massive portion of their side (apart from the Express). Then for people that don’t generally go Tory you still won’t support them either way. I guess it’s a sign of what happens when a party changes course so often, they end up alienating a lot of people.

I wanted to apologise to people for ranting earlier on, I hope I didn’t offend anyone. 

I think it's easy to attack politically, while it's actually quite good overall.

[steviewevie]

5 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

I think it's easy to attack politically, while it's actually quite good overall.

Yeah, I guess quite good that education got more cash, and NHS, not sure if enough but still...and benefits stay inline with inflation. But outlook is grim, and a lot of austerity has been delayed, I guess to flatten the pain curve maybe...Politically it's has potential to be tough for both the govt and the opposition, Labour might get in and then continue with spending cuts, or at least not borrowing loads to fund some of their big plans...

[steviewevie]

Article in New Statesman about one of the main people behind Labour under Starmer's strategy, he's like Blair's Mandelson without the ambition for front line politics, someone called Morgan McSweeney. He's behind the direction that Starmer has been taking over the last few years, including the selections keeping out left wingers thing. It's probably behind a paywall but I can copy in here if anyone interested.

Morgan McSweeney – Labour’s power broker - New Statesman

[Guest]

7 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

I think it's easy to attack politically, while it's actually quite good overall.

I can see some good aspects such as benefits and pensions but overall I think it’s bad especially the spending cuts.

Thats kinda my point though, if we use yourself as an example you think it’s quite good but I doubt it’ll sway you to vote for them? So they’ll end up winning no one over and pissing them own support off. 

[steviewevie]

maybe I can persuade all my millions of twitter followers to come over to here...

[Neil]

14 hours ago, hodgey123 said:

Agree with this. My granddad gets the state pension but has private pension provision and other investment income which he comfortably lives off and by his own admission does not need the state pension too, nor the free bus passes etc. he is also entitled to. Means-testing is done in plenty of other areas without controversy so why should it be different for pensions? I understand people make NIC contributions their entire life and then get something at the end, but it is the same principle as tax i.e. those earning more contribute more but do not get anything extra at the end...

his pension income is taxable, if he gets enough to meet the tax threshold.

[cellar]

9 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

I don't hate this budget btw. It's more progressive and better balanced than Gideon's were in general. Defence not being ring-fenced is great, tax rises are good. UC rising with inflation is excellent. Minimum wage rise is higher than I feared.

I mean, I still don't trust rhyming slang not to be ferreting half of it off to his aunty, but the headline impacts of things that weren't expected are more positive than not.

Best budget in 13 years by my reckoning.

Agree with this - I only really started taking a proper interest in 2016, but every budget since then has felt lacklustre (and I probably got my hopes up too high because of the rumours beforehand).

Feels like the first time it feels like they've delivered multiple changes I'm on board with.

 

I wonder if the tax changes affecting wealthy individuals are here to stay - the way windfall tax was spoken about yesterday was that it was a temporary measure, though I don't know if the same narrative was used alongside individual taxation (ie. Its just "for now" to get us out of this hole, and then we'll go back to favouring the rich).

Edited November 18, 2022 by cellar

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, cellar said:

Agree with this - I only really started taking a proper interest in 2016, but every budget since then has felt lacklustre (and I probably got my hopes up too high because of the rumours beforehand).

Feels like the first time it feels like they've delivered multiple changes I'm on board with.

 

I wonder if the tax changes affecting wealthy individuals are here to stay - the way windfall tax was spoken about yesterday was that it was a temporary measure, though I don't know of the same narrative was used alongside individual taxation (ie. Its just "for now" to get us out of this hole, and then we'll go back to favouring the rich).

thing is these tax rises are mostly to pay off debt to reassure markets, not pay for things...so in terms of redistribution maybe it will help a bit in that it takes more away from middle/top earners, but it's not as if things are going to improve for those on lower wages.

[steviewevie]

...but I guess the spending cuts penciled in for 2025 may or may not happen...and maybe these tax rises will stay, although chances are Tories (or Labour) will be tempted to cut or promise to cut as part of an election campaign...

[cellar]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

thing is these tax rises are mostly to pay off debt to reassure markets, not pay for things...so in terms of redistribution maybe it will help a bit in that it takes more away from middle/top earners, but it's not as if things are going to improve for those on lower wages.

I guess it depends how you look at it, there are lots of things to be paid for, debt is one of them, but so is funding the energy price cap, or spending on schools and NHS. The amount of debt repayments will be (and have been) affected by market sentiment, so it is important to make sure a budget is received well by markets - otherwise you lose money that could have been spent elsewhere on your repayments.

I agree things are going to get worse, for pretty much everyone. But they are less worse than would have been without these interventions.

Also I am massively in favour of wealth distribution, I am definitely of the school of thought that a widening wealth gap is a negative thing for an economy. Ideally you would like to see wealth gaps reducing during times of prosperity, but if its going to happen now I'm not going to say no. 

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

...but I guess the spending cuts penciled in for 2025 may or may not happen...and maybe these tax rises will stay, although chances are Tories (or Labour) will be tempted to cut or promise to cut as part of an election campaign...

This is kind of what I was wondering though - would Labour take the opportunity to maintain these tax conditions in favour of a more equal society even as we move out of recession, or will they take the low hanging fruit. 

[steviewevie]

20 minutes ago, cellar said:

 

I wonder if the tax changes affecting wealthy individuals are here to stay - the way windfall tax was spoken about yesterday was that it was a temporary measure, though I don't know if the same narrative was used alongside individual taxation (ie. Its just "for now" to get us out of this hole, and then we'll go back to favouring the rich).

aren't windfall taxes always temporary?

Taxes may need to stay high, but I'm sure a lot of Tories will be demanding they come down if/when things start improving.

[cellar]

Well yeah by their nature they are, I just couldn't remember if when Hunt was talking about them being temporary measures, he was extending that narrative (maybe by implication) to the individual tax changes too.

But yeah you're right, I imagine Tories will want to see them changing back.

[lost]

Windfall was an extra 10% on north sea oil and gas along with a tax on green energy produces I think. The taxes on individuals probably won't be wound back as they've trended higher for quite some time now due to the aging population. Its easy to forget the 45% tax rate didn't exist under Blair.

[Neil]

tories have set labour up for the next election campaign.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Neil said:

tories have set labour up for the next election campaign.

maybe, but at same time Labour can just blame tories for how shit it is and it's time for a change.

[Neil]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

maybe, but at same time Labour can just blame tories for how shit it is and it's time for a change.

while the tories can claim labour will fuck it up like truss by ditching the future spending cuts.

[Neil]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

While peoples faith in the tories is rocked at the moment I still don't buy they view Labour as being economically competent so I still think its a sucessful line of attack for them.

yeah, tories have been winning elections for 40 years by selling the idea labour will fuck thing up.

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

maybe, but at same time Labour can just blame tories for how shit it is and it's time for a change.

Traditionally voters tend to blame the incumbent party for times of economic hardship see 2010 and 1997 (even though the economy had improved).

Edited November 18, 2022 by Ozanne

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, Neil said:

yeah, tories have been winning elections for 40 years by selling the idea labour will fuck thing up.

true dat. We'll see, I think this government looking a bit tired and out of ideas and if next few years are going to be as shit as forecast I expect people will just want something different...and Starmer is kind of boring and all that but he won't be scaring people who have voted tory in the past and willing to give Labour a go.

[Neil]

Just now, steviewevie said:

true dat. We'll see, I think this government looking a bit tired and out of ideas and if next few years are going to be as shit as forecast I expect people will just want something different...and Starmer is kind of boring and all that but he won't be scaring people who have voted tory in the past and willing to give Labour a go.

tories will go all out to portray labour as scary, its what the Tories do, but they have managed to attack their own narrative over the past few months.

[steviewevie]

I guess if inflation comes down as expected the govt can put that down to this budget, which will be bullshit of course but there you go...

[kaosmark2]

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I can see some good aspects such as benefits and pensions but overall I think it’s bad especially the spending cuts.

Thats kinda my point though, if we use yourself as an example you think it’s quite good but I doubt it’ll sway you to vote for them? So they’ll end up winning no one over and pissing them own support off. 

I've argued against the triple lock before. I think that was an inevitable bad not a positive. The fact that some cuts will fall on defence for the first time in forever (since 80s?) Is good.

No it won't, but I'd still prefer they do a budget that's decent for the country over their own political gain.

[steviewevie]

the defence thing is good...unless.................

[kaosmark2]

2 hours ago, cellar said:

Agree with this - I only really started taking a proper interest in 2016, but every budget since then has felt lacklustre (and I probably got my hopes up too high because of the rumours beforehand).

Feels like the first time it feels like they've delivered multiple changes I'm on board with.

 

I wonder if the tax changes affecting wealthy individuals are here to stay - the way windfall tax was spoken about yesterday was that it was a temporary measure, though I don't know if the same narrative was used alongside individual taxation (ie. Its just "for now" to get us out of this hole, and then we'll go back to favouring the rich).

There's more things I'd like to see, but it's a new Labour budget largely, and they're taking the flak for the living costs.

Reeves didn't impress me though, Labour didn't have enough to attack with so she spouted tiresome lines.

[kaosmark2]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

the defence thing is good...unless.................

But it's not direct cuts. It's putting the money towards defence, while eating it can be siphoned off to other areas if unused. It's a very sensible attitude in the current world climate.