The Weather Thread 2022

[waterfalls21234]

about as dumb as the sage covid models at this point 😛 

[SighMo]

Dumb to some, short term gospel truth to others...it's how it is in here. Keep it coming.

[Mardy]

Gav is predicting dry weather. We're fucking doomed. 

 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, waterfalls21234 said:

then whats the point......I could model anything, people take these things as predictions thats the problem hence the doom and gloom when a dodgy model is shown

yeah, what's the point.

[steviewevie]

 

[The Nal]

6 minutes ago, Mardy said:

Gav is predicting dry weather. We're fucking doomed. 

 

Gav tomorrow morning before he posts his update

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

36 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Not on the line up this year but managed to see her in Glasgow quite recently. As unique and talented as ever. Very under rated. 

[briddj]

54 minutes ago, waterfalls21234 said:

then whats the point......I could model anything, people take these things as predictions thats the problem hence the doom and gloom when a dodgy model is shown

No. That's called fear.

[c8lin]

59 minutes ago, The Nal said:

The Norweigans have just updated again based on the latest run.

Consistent forecasts coming into focus now. 

Saturday is just 6 days away.

Short version -                                              Its time to fucking panic!!

 

 

Remember this?!

I use yr.no all the time and they quite frequently predict rainfall as heavy as this, which never comes to fruition. Usually they're correct about there being some rain but never quite the volume they suggest. I'm not worried!

[Wooderson]

My reaction to Gavin's latest...

 

 

[HyperTechnoHorse]

18z running now. Got a feeling this one might show some real carnage. 

[briddj]

As usual, the 18Z is always more pessimistic, and brings the outlier back in play with heavy rain for Sunday morning.

It's predicting 11 degrees on the Sunday before the festival starts. Let's say the chances of this being correct are slim to none. It shows rain through the day on Sunday.

Edited June 12, 2022 by briddj

[Alvoram]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

All quiet from The Nal when a good forecast from GFS...like matiloy when a good poll for Starmer/labour.

Don't speak to soon... Looks like we 'could' have the first wet 'evening' gfs run for a while, if this low continues to push south during the current 18Z run... That would break the pattern of nice evening GFS runs that we'd been having. And would start to look like the pattern is favouring low pressure and rain for the glasto weekend.

It's already showing horrendous amounts of rain next Sunday 😕 

[briddj]

Back to the good stuff now. The "bad" 18Z wasn't anywhere near as bad as last night's.

The rain stops at 6pm on Sunday, then it's effectively dry, dry, dry through to gates open on Weds morning.

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Game over. 

[briddj]

However on this one, the low is developing very dangerously from the north as Monday rolls into Wednesday.

[Alvoram]

4 minutes ago, briddj said:

Back to the good stuff now. The "bad" 18Z wasn't anywhere near as bad as last night's.

The rain stops at 6pm on Sunday, then it's effectively dry, dry, dry through to gates open on Weds morning.

That's a LOT of rain on the Sunday...

 

We're talking well over 60mm... What would that do to the ground? 

[briddj]

First two days of the festival.

WEDNESDAY - Effectively dry bar a light show, but the old pessimist 18Z has temps much lower at 18.

THURSDAY - The pessimist strikes again, with temperatures of just 15 degrees and showers all afternoon and evening.

 

By now, the low is fully in control. Welcome to February!

Edited June 12, 2022 by briddj

[briddj]

5 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

That's a LOT of rain on the Sunday...

 

We're talking well over 60mm... What would that do to the ground? 

It was worse last night, there would have been no festival on that one.

Edited June 12, 2022 by briddj

[frankzekilo]

Why oh why did I come to check the Weather Thread at one minute to midnight on a Sunday night?

Why?!

[Alvoram]

12 minutes ago, briddj said:

It was worse last night, there would have been on festival on  that one.

Doesn't look too dissimilar to me, in fact tonight's is worse with stronger patches of 20-30mm (admittedly in the wrong place, but accurately predicting the exact locality of it is impossible, especially this far out)

Sadly this run shows some substantial showers over glastonbury weekend too. 😞 First time an 18z has looked this bad for the actual weekend in few days at least. 

Are we calling this one an outlier @briddj? (See, I'm learning... 😂)

Edited June 12, 2022 by Alvoram

[briddj]

8 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Doesn't look too dissimilar to me, in fact tonight's is worse with stronger patches of 20-30mm (admittedly in the wrong place, but accurately predicting the exact locality of it is impossible, especially this far out)

Sadly this run shows some substantial showers over glastonbury weekend too. 😞 First time an 18z has looked this bad for the actual weekend in few days at least. 

Are we calling this one an outlier @briddj? (See, I'm learning... 😂)

Was over 100mm on last night's charts.

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by briddj

[briddj]

The festival proper. Do things improve?

FRIDAY - Almost a carbon copy of Thursday, just with a little less rain, and temperatures of just 16.

But now the low pressure is being dragged back northwards.

SATURDAY - No rain of any real note, but the temperate remains a woeful 17.

SUNDAY - A dry day, but only 15 degrees.

By now the low has been pushed fully away.

IN SUMMARY

Overall, it's even worse than last night. There might not be as much rain over the weekend before, but the festival itself would be miserable.

The good news is the 18Z is clearly an outlier.

Edited June 12, 2022 by briddj

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

Was over 100mm on last night's charts.

They're not loading for me, but I'll take your word for it. I only have these 2, which don't seem to be as bad. (And I think I stole them from you anyway!) 

 

 

Either way, it's fair to say that the 18z is developing a strong pattern for heavy rain next Sunday.