The Weather Thread 2022

[jparx]

7 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

Also worth noting (if I remember rightly) bad rain was forecast for Mon and Tue on the GFS on Tuesday I believe? Now none. Correct me if I’m wrong someone.

Yeah I think that was coming up on some of the charts. With 4 runs a day, it’s gonna change a lot until we’re close enough to have certainty.

it’s also worth remembering that the climate in this country has changed a lot in recent years. It’s not especially likely to have several consecutive days of torrential rain. That’s just not a high probability. Maybe showers and some cloud, but not apocalyptic weather that some of these charts suggest. And the super low temps coming up would be a massive outlier for a three day weekend.

I still feel confident we’ll have fine weather for the festival. It’s just the most likely scenario, and again the great news is that we almost certainly won’t be arriving to a mud bath.

[ghandi]

Think I will stick with the Met office latest update and leave you scare mongers to it. No rain except a small amount of showers on friday night. Sat and Sunday is just a guess at this point. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by ghandi

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

This chart feels like it should be good news

it isn't. It's the problem. The jetstream below us means lows from the north. If we want settled warm weather we want it above us.

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, Abc1235 said:

There are some of you posting 10-20 times in a very short space of time, do you lot not have anything better to do?

It's out of our control...

Nothing to do now but wait for Tuesday to come around 😉

 

[Sheffield Steve]

It’s about to chuck it down on the site.  Hopefully not for too long….

[CaledonianGonzo]

Pray for Worthy Farm 🙏 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Abc1235 said:

There are some of you posting 10-20 times in a very short space of time, do you lot not have anything better to do?

 

nope

[JoBalls]

I’ve dug out the tights I bought for 2019 that never got worn. 

Let’s hope there’s a turnaround and I don’t need them again…

[Crumbleflaps]

26 minutes ago, worstmanonroad said:

BBC will be as good a barometer as any other, in years of following this annual meltdown thread these silly graphs have been about as much use as a custard dildo 

You CAN freeze custard.

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

4 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

It’s about to chuck it down on the site.  Hopefully not for too long….

It would seem somebody has dimed the lights on the webcam….

[stopwn1981]

The Canadians have thrown in with the others. Consistent modelling for low pressure fri-sun.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Blame Canada 

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Just now, stopwn1981 said:

The Canadians have thrown in with the others. Consistent modelling for low pressure fri-sun.

Game over. 

[steviewevie]

[Sheffield Steve]

5 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

The Canadians have thrown in with the others. Consistent modelling for low pressure fri-sun.

Hmm, yes the low is more significant on this run.   But the rain on Saturday is nowhere near as bad as the other models think.   This is the Canadians thoughts for Saturday lunchtime:

[DyatlovReturns]

1 minute ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Hmm, yes the low is more significant on this run.   But the rain on Saturday is nowhere near as bad as the other models think.   This is the Canadians thoughts for Saturday lunchtime:

I've been waiting for you to come with the Canadian news

[kalifire]

1 minute ago, DyatlovReturns said:

I've been waiting for you to come with the Canadian news

Doesn’t sound like it’ll be good enough for that. 

[Sheffield Steve]

… and the Germans are having none of it either.  The midday run of ICON has the low much further to the NW where it can cause much less trouble.     Rain not so bad here.
 

 

and even by Saturday night the low hasn’t made much progress…so looking much better from ICON…

 

[kalifire]

[CaledonianGonzo]

Deutschland Über Alles quite frankly

[Euphoricape]

I always thought they deserved to win in 1966. Great team.

[CaledonianGonzo]

A great bunch of lads

[briddj]

I actually use a German app for a live weather radar, mainly for rain when cycling. 

This is what they have just served up. 

They do tend to be a little unreliable for long range forecasts though!

[Sheffield Steve]

So, Canadian update.  They now agree with the other models that the low will be there, but they put it slightly out to the NW, which gives only showers over the site on Saturday and a dry Sunday, despite the low being so close.  There will be the possibility of showers, sure, but nothing like the rain the European and GFS models do.

Saturday:

Sunday:

 

Rain on Sunday… none!

[briddj]

32 minutes ago, Abc1235 said:

There are some of you posting 10-20 times in a very short space of time, do you lot not have anything better to do?

It's out of our control...

No.