The Weather Thread 2022

[AlexOvd]

So basically is even worse than it was. BBC lads are just playing with us. It's going to be a very wet one unfortunately. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by AlexOvd

[Caribun]

Nope. Not believing this change. I'm sticking with the old BBC one. 🙏🤣

*puts fingers in ears*

[SpencerF]

Oh sod it all - win or lose we're on the booze

[SpencerF]

[briddj]

SUNDAY

Rain showing through the day, clearing in the evening, but it's not heavy, with highs of only 16 on Sunday. 

It's a troublesome position for the low pressure trough on Sunday.

MONDAY MORNING

Possible light rain for packing up.

SUMMARY

A definite downturn with more rain, as the GFS brings the low in earlier again. It really just underlines the KNIFE. EDGE of the position of this trough of low pressure which remains highly uncertain.

Reminder that other models are usually more reliable for rain at short time-frame, so don't get too worried from these rain charts....

We go again at 4.45.

 

 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

I think this is a better GFS run than the last actually.

Total 'blue blob' over farm factor is higher. But three days out the location of rainfall is meaningless.

What this shows over southern England is a much weaker rain bearing front that the last run. Very little green, mostly a few mm. 

Case in point below. Previous run on the right - look at the total rainfall forecast only 80 miles from site. That's gone.

[Euphoricape]

1 minute ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I think this is a better GFS run than the last actually.

Total 'blue blob' over farm factor is higher. But three days out the location of rainfall is meaningless.

What this shows over southern England is a much weaker rain bearing front that the last run. Very little green, mostly a few mm. 

Case in point below. Previous run on the right - look at the total rainfall forecast only 80 miles from site. That's gone.

Good point. As long as we escape the heavy stuff we will be grand

[leath02]

BBC or bust at this point, nothing else matters

[kingbadger]

2 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

I think this is a better GFS run than the last actually.

Total 'blue blob' over farm factor is higher. But three days out the location of rainfall is meaningless.

What this shows over southern England is a much weaker rain bearing front that the last run. Very little green, mostly a few mm. 

Case in point below. Previous run on the right - look at the total rainfall forecast only 80 miles from site. That's gone.

Yeah the distinct lack of green says to me whilst rain is likely, everything seems to suggest this will be sporadic and very light in nature, nothing too drastic. Would rather have 75% chance of the odd light shower than a 50% chance of a sustained deluge. 

[SpencerF]

BBC updated again, now showing no rain at all over the weekend - don't do this to me.

[a6l6e6x]

I only pay attention to the BBC. All the high and low pressure nonsense can get to f*ck

[Euphoricape]

2 minutes ago, SpencerF said:

BBC updated again, now showing no rain at all over the weekend - don't do this to me.

I will start watching Eastenders if this is accurate

[PolygonWindow]

2 minutes ago, SpencerF said:

BBC updated again, now showing no rain at all over the weekend - don't do this to me.

That’s bollocks surely.

People will see that and assume it’s dry for the entirety, not sure whether it updates on an algorithm but that’s very misleading. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Still showing rain for Pilton Somerset which is the forecast you want, not Glastonbury town.

[Gnomicide]

God bless Auntie!

[t0paz]

1 minute ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Still showing rain for Pilton Somerset which is the forecast you want, not Glastonbury town.

It is, but only 17-20% chance of rain, even where it shows rain.

[T-Mouse]

Met Office update for Thursday is gutting

[nban2010]

The ECMWF has a fair few passing light 0.1-0.3mm showers but none of them seemingly hitting the site at all all weekend, really is knife edge stuff. It seems that the big one that could cause some damage is the one that is due to hit us Friday night 9pm-12pm, if that one isn't bad, could be plain sailing from then on.

[SpencerF]

Just now, t0paz said:

It is, but only 17-20% chance of rain, even where it shows rain.

Also not been updated as frequently as the Glastonbury one. Updated at 11:01 it says - the most recent one was updated at 11:16. Before that they were showing the same - can't help but feel it's bollocks regardless but a man can dream

[kingmonkey1980]

1 minute ago, T-Mouse said:

Met Office update for Thursday is gutting

Why? It’s showing as sunny all day in Pilton.

[wolvodan]

1 hour ago, harrywise64 said:

would love to hear the reasoning behind wellies making the mud worse

Big clompy heels and treads innit

[AlexOvd]

9 minutes ago, SpencerF said:

BBC updated again, now showing no rain at all over the weekend - don't do this to me.

FAKE. 

[T-Mouse]

2 minutes ago, kingmonkey1980 said:

Why? It’s showing as sunny all day in Pilton.

I was looking at shepton mallet. Either way area looks set for something. Ti's a shame.

[filmguy]

As much fun as this is, there is no forecast that is going to be anywhere near accurate at this point and in reality, any point during the next few days. For example here’s the latest Meteo Group forecast

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by filmguy
Addition

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Unironically I do think the weather is going to be pretty nasty past Thursday and I advise everyone to pack for the worst case scenario. There's a lot of dangerous cope going on in this thread and it risks people believing it's just going to be a shower or two - it's not, it's going to be pretty constant and potentially torrential at times.