The Weather Thread 2022

[Brad2434]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

FIRST TWO DAYS

Wednesday

Completely dry, highs of 24 - some won't be happy.

High pressure still in command.

Thursday

Again, completely dry, highs of 23.

 

High pressure still in command.

Love going to sleep on a positive!

[kaytee...]

I'm just back from two weekends at Primavera so I'm out of the loop here. Gone from being too hot at 3am to digging out my festival fleeces after looking at current forecasts 😆 

[briddj]

Just now, The Other Steve said:

At what point would you say it's safe to lock the predictions in?  Maybe 2-3 days before the festival?

Difficult to say. We'll know about the start by Monday and should be pretty certain for the following weekend, or a very good idea least.

[briddj]

I have a feeling Friday to Sunday is going to be scorchio here...

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

Sidebar….you don’t want the isobars to packed together as this usually means wind too.

[sedra]

Still too early to tell - last time it looked grim and there was was rain on Monday and Tuesday but all turned out clear in the end.

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Torrential rain across some parts of the UK on Saturday according to the ICON.  Could be game over.

[briddj]

Onto the three days of the festival, then. Will the high hold?

FRIDAY

Totally dry, and back to 24 degrees.

The high pressure has actually consolidated its position and got stronger.

SATURDAY

Yep, another lovely dry day but temps drop a little to 20 as the low tries to muscle in.

 

The low pressure has decided to fight back from the north, but how far can it push? The high is staying strong, leaving the low our east.

SUNDAY

Dry, dry, dry. Temps back up to 23. Lovely.

The high pressure wins AGAIN! Moving back in with the low sent packing.

SUMMARY

The 18z, that we all hated so much, has delivered the best charts yet. But it's TOO EARLY.

That low pressure to the north and east (and to an extent the pocked to the south which could bring rain) remains a real danger and it could still all go wrong.

 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

Are we starting to see any agreement on the ensembles for next week yet?

[stuartbert two hats]

I have no idea what that meant.

[henry bear]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Are we starting to see any agreement on the ensembles for next week yet?

No, i.e. some people think Foals are quite good, many beg to differ

[Alvoram]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I have no idea what that meant.

Sounded good though 🙈😂😂😂

[Chip Batch]

8 minutes ago, briddj said:

Onto the three days of the festival, then. Will the high hold?

FRIDAY

Totally dry, and back to 24 degrees.

The high pressure has actually consolidated its position and got stronger.

SATURDAY

Yep, another lovely dry day but temps drop a little to 20 as the low tries to muscle in.

 

The low pressure has decided to fight back from the north, but how far can it push? The high is staying strong, leaving the low our east.

SUNDAY

Dry, dry, dry. Temps back up to 23. Lovely.

The high pressure wins AGAIN! Moving back in with the low sent packing.

SUMMARY

The 18z, that we all hated so much, has delivered the best charts yet. But it's TOO EARLY.

That low pressure to the north and east (and to an extent the pocked to the south which could bring rain) remains a real danger and it could still all go wrong.

 

 

Too early, but all this would be as perfect as it could be.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s impending, inevitable doom now. 

[Alvoram]

1 minute ago, Chip Batch said:

Too early, but all this would be as perfect as it could be.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s impending, inevitable doom now. 

It's been a good day today.... No 'real' back and forth!!!

Even the ECMWF has improved for this Sunday, and shows no precipitation between then and Thursday. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Seriously though, when you have all those lines that agree in the short term and then start diverging over time - are they all "ensembles" or is there an ensemble which is the average?

Did my earlier question actually make sense?

[FuzzyDunlop]

23 minutes ago, briddj said:

Onto the three days of the festival, then. Will the high hold?

FRIDAY

Totally dry, and back to 24 degrees.

The high pressure has actually consolidated its position and got stronger.

SATURDAY

Yep, another lovely dry day but temps drop a little to 20 as the low tries to muscle in.

 

The low pressure has decided to fight back from the north, but how far can it push? The high is staying strong, leaving the low our east.

SUNDAY

Dry, dry, dry. Temps back up to 23. Lovely.

The high pressure wins AGAIN! Moving back in with the low sent packing.

SUMMARY

The 18z, that we all hated so much, has delivered the best charts yet. But it's TOO EARLY.

That low pressure to the north and east (and to an extent the pocked to the south which could bring rain) remains a real danger and it could still all go wrong.

 

 

Well that's depressing

[Crumbleflaps]

35 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Seriously though, when you have all those lines that agree in the short term and then start diverging over time - are they all "ensembles" or is there an ensemble which is the average?

Did my earlier question actually make sense?

At the moment it's a 4 piece without the lead guitarist.

[K2SO]

These latest updates seem ideal for me. Dry in the low 20s? Hook it to my veins.

[Suprefan]

Apple very much still holding

[gazzared]

The normal not as good morning weather report

[squirrelarmy]

48 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

Apple very much still holding

 

Glastonbury on the Apple weather app isn’t the same place as the festival. Search for Pilton Somerset. It will show up as Shepton Mallet on the app. 
 

Not that it’s very accurate anyway. 
 

[Aragorn]

6 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Seriously though, when you have all those lines that agree in the short term and then start diverging over time - are they all "ensembles" or is there an ensemble which is the average?

Did my earlier question actually make sense?

Here are the ensembles overnight that show precipitation. The green operational run is what bridjj posts on here by way of charts. The red run is the average of all 20 runs. The blue run is the control run. As you can see gfs again shows minimal rain across its various runs.

For me though the more reliable models UKMO AND EMCWF are not quite so bullish and there is a chance low pressure will force out the high somewhat. One to watch very closely. 

[garc1a]

You know the festival is getting close when this thread is top every time you check the forum.. or its what you come for! 

[Suprefan]

32 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Glastonbury on the Apple weather app isn’t the same place as the festival. Search for Pilton Somerset. It will show up as Shepton Mallet on the app. 
 

Not that it’s very accurate anyway. 
 

I think I did search it that way and it gave me Glasto instead so Ive left it. Ive never changed it since I added it onto my phone 5 years ago so i just trust its semi accurate lol.

[steviewevie]

6 hours ago, briddj said:

Onto the three days of the festival, then. Will the high hold?

FRIDAY

Totally dry, and back to 24 degrees.

The high pressure has actually consolidated its position and got stronger.

SATURDAY

Yep, another lovely dry day but temps drop a little to 20 as the low tries to muscle in.

 

The low pressure has decided to fight back from the north, but how far can it push? The high is staying strong, leaving the low our east.

SUNDAY

Dry, dry, dry. Temps back up to 23. Lovely.

The high pressure wins AGAIN! Moving back in with the low sent packing.

SUMMARY

The 18z, that we all hated so much, has delivered the best charts yet. But it's TOO EARLY.

That low pressure to the north and east (and to an extent the pocked to the south which could bring rain) remains a real danger and it could still all go wrong.

 

 

Too hot. Twist.