The Weather Thread 2022

[a6l6e6x]

This is all looking worryingly good

[JoeyT]

It's fairly safe to say at this point that most models (I think?) are forecasting a very hot Friday of this week with rain and potentially lots of it over this weekend.

Still all to play for next week at the moment. We are still very much in "pinch of salt" territory for festival week*

 

*unless the forecast is good in which case we should believe it wholeheartedly.

Edited June 14, 2022 by JoeyT

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, a6l6e6x said:

This is all looking worryingly good

some, not all.

[AlexOvd]

We all now this is going to turn into low and it will be heartbreaking.

[Alvoram]

Unfortunately, the ECMWF run was not a great run in terms of pre festival ground condition. Showing a huge amount of rain in the lead up to the festival.

Most of it falls on Sunday, as previously modelled, but it is also showing some on Monday and Tuesday. 

The good news is it shows that it is dry from Wednesday to Friday, and high pressure looks to be building in for the actual weekend. 

(Please note, this shows the total precipitation between now and Friday, NOT precipitation on Friday, most of it comes the Sunday before as mentioned) 

And here you can see that small low pressure system moving off to the North East, followed by some lovely highs for the weekend of the festival. 

[Billy Corgans hair]

Every time I read this thread it looks something like this

 

The weather is looking good, pack your suncream

It's going to rain constantly until August

But it's looking really nice

However make sure you pack a life jacket because you might drown

Although it's going to be dry but cold

 

 

 

 

 

[nikkic]

57 minutes ago, TheGChild said:

Anyone else irrationally excited at the thought of wearing trainers all weekend

This is the main thing for me.

I want to wear trainers and I want to be able to sit down whenever I want. 

I'd even accept 15-16 degrees to please @steviewevie and @FuzzyDunlop

[Sheffield Steve]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

A new low

yes, the ECM brings rain from that low in on Tuesday evening, a feature which the GFS completely ignores. Too far out for detail but has the potential to spoil the queue party, particularly as ECM is more reliable than GFS. 

[AlexOvd]

Our hated Accuweather is improving though, they just left two rainy days over the festival and with VERY small amounts, under 1mm 24&26.

 

[Alvoram]

Just now, Billy Corgans hair said:

Every time I read this thread it looks something like this

 

The weather is looking good, pack your suncream

It's going to rain constantly until August

But it's looking really nice

However make sure you pack a life jacket because you might drown

Although it's going to be dry but cold

 

 

 

 

 

That's because there are no forecasts that are reliable yet... All that we're sharing are the models that will be used to help create the forecasts. One model in itself is not a forecast. These models are computer simulations, which are run multiple times a day. They will all differ this early on. All that we can do is look for patterns in them.

For example, a few days before it was forecast, 75% of the models were showing rain this weekend coming. That was a pattern that could be picked up. So far there are no strong patterns for festival weekend, it's all a bit all over the place. But patterns will emerge, and that's why we keep sharing the models. 

[AlexOvd]

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind a low destroying this weekend if we will have then a dry one later on.

[gazzared]

2 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

Our hated Accuweather is improving though, they just left two rainy days over the festival and with VERY small amounts, under 1mm 24&26.

 

weather channel has improved as per the norm aswell ha

[AlexOvd]

Just now, gazzared said:

weather channel has improved as per the norm aswell ha

All prediction more and more pointing towards big showers SAT&SUN and then calm after that. Crossing fingers.

[jparx]

Even if we get a big deluge this weekend, I think it's still likely the ground will cope providing it doesn't then hammer it down until gates open. It's so dry out there. It looks like we're getting a big storm to clear away this heat we're getting on Friday, so hopefully it's a quick in and out job moving quickly over the country and we can get the ground dried Mon-Weds. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

MetCheck looking good. 
 

Bonus recovery days forecast which does show potential of hot weather still lurking around.

@FuzzyDunlop How would you fare in festival temperatures like this?  

[kalifire]

Yeah, the ground will actually need a downfall after the temperatures on Friday/Saturday. It will absorb a large amount of it and dry days afterwards should mean conditions on the Wednesday are manageable at worst. 

The bigger question is the balance between rain that exceeds absorption and significant Sunday arrivals. Lots of trade vans and some volunteers arrive on Sunday so there will be a lot of movement.

[AlexOvd]

3 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Yeah, the ground will actually need a downfall after the temperatures on Friday/Saturday. It will absorb a large amount of it and dry days afterwards should mean conditions on the Wednesday are manageable at worst. 

The bigger question is the balance between rain that exceeds absorption and significant Sunday arrivals. Lots of trade vans and some volunteers arrive on Sunday so there will be a lot of movement.

I think the key is to have at least 1 day before Wednesday totally dry and sunny and we will be fine.

Edited June 14, 2022 by AlexOvd

[Solan]

1 hour ago, deebeedoobee said:

Is the thread giving us it’s prediction?

 

The thread has become sentient.

[JoeyT]

From the webcam archives at 10am the day before the gates opened in 2019:

Standing water by the looks of things and also you could probably say muddy.

There wasn't a welly worn throughout the festival.

Shows how quickly it can dry up and the weather wasn't particularly great on the Tuesday afternoon either...

[gazzared]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

From the webcam archives at 10am the day before the gates opened in 2019:

Standing water by the looks of things and also you could probably say muddy.

There wasn't a welly worn throughout the festival.

Shows how quickly it can dry up and the weather wasn't particularly great on the Tuesday afternoon either...

yeah it rained through the night monday into tuesday and williams green had pools of standing water but all vanished by the afternoon

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

From the webcam archives at 10am the day before the gates opened in 2019:

Standing water by the looks of things and also you could probably say muddy.

There wasn't a welly worn throughout the festival.

Shows how quickly it can dry up and the weather wasn't particularly great on the Tuesday afternoon either...

You love to see it.

[JoeyT]

Last paragraph 😔

[FuzzyDunlop]

36 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

@FuzzyDunlop How would you fare in festival temperatures like this?  

I'd rather the 23s be a few degrees cooler, mainly as that looks like 23 & no shade... but its not too bad. The 18° Saturday looks pretty perfect to me.

If we could stick on 18 - 21 & Dry. I'd take it. 21 for those wanting it a little warmer, but 18 for people like me, without it being too cool for others.

Edited June 14, 2022 by FuzzyDunlop

[kalifire]

7 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Last paragraph 😔

A “coolish spell” compared to the temperatures we’re due to see later this week is very welcome! 

[AlexOvd]