The Weather Thread 2022

[JoeyT]

This run (left) actually serves us better come next weekend than the last one (right):

[kevbizarre]

Don’t think I’ve know another weather thread with such swing between amazing and shit show on a run by run basis! I’m saving my packing until Tuesday night I think….

[PolygonWindow]

That GFS is actually ok.

No other models predicting wash out.

We’re ok, right?

[steviewevie]

the saturday and sunday look good...dry...not too hot....stick.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

That GFS is actually ok.

No other models predicting wash out.

We’re ok, right?

for now.

[andymk]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

This run (left) actually serves us better come next weekend than the last one (right):

Correct, while the run shows a pretty horrific coming weekend and then rain on Wednesday morning, with the exception of the odd shower passing through on Thursday and Friday the high pressure is back in control for the weekend

[4AssedMonkey]

3 minutes ago, kevbizarre said:

Don’t think I’ve know another weather thread with such swing between amazing and shit show on a run by run basis! I’m saving my packing until Tuesday night I think….

Funny.  I think it's the same every year!  Don't we always have the Azores high battling the Atlantic/Scandi low at this time of year and isn't that why it's so unpredictable?

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, kevbizarre said:

Don’t think I’ve know another weather thread with such swing between amazing and shit show on a run by run basis! I’m saving my packing until Tuesday night I think….

even then the forecasts might not be that accurate for the weekend. Pack for eveything I reckon (if you can).

[AlexOvd]

For the last run what it looks like it's that the rain may be extended from Sat&Sun to also Mon&Tue and even Wed. Then it's dry. 

[JoeyT]

Eagerly awaiting @briddj's excellent breakdown of it all.

[Ed90]

Can I ask, out of genuine curiosity and ignorance, why we're focused on GFS and not ECMWF?

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, kevbizarre said:

Don’t think I’ve know another weather thread with such swing between amazing and shit show on a run by run basis! I’m saving my packing until Tuesday night I think….

Weather models are directly affected by Stevies demand for cold weather. Every time he says it’s too hot they add more rain. 

[topmarksbri]

19 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

latest GFS showing lots of rain the whole week very close to south-west. Could well be a total washout.

mate change the record, have you posted anything other than total gloom about the weather?

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

Funny.  I think it's the same every year!  Don't we always have the Azores high battling the Atlantic/Scandi low at this time of year and isn't that why it's so unpredictable?

It is more often than not unpredictable, but this year is taking it to a whole new level.

Plus the dry weather so far is setting up a whole psychological sub plot - it feels like we're *just this close* to a wonderful dry festival and it's all coming down to the last few days. 

As opposed to, say, 2016 when we were trying to find reasons for optimism but frankly it was obvious it was going to be a mess.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Eagerly awaiting @briddj's excellent breakdown of it all.

yeah, where is he? not good enough.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Weather models are directly affected by Stevies demand for cold weather. Every time he says it’s too hot they add more rain. 

It's too hot.

[paulshane]

3 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

mate change the record, have you posted anything other than total gloom about the weather?

they are just a shitty troll, stick them on ignore.

[andymk]

7 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

Can I ask, out of genuine curiosity and ignorance, why we're focused on GFS and not ECMWF?

ECM doesn't go out that far, currently only the Friday of the festival is in range. Over the next couple of days when the full weekend is showing on the ECM then we'll see the differences between the models. Though until there's consistency between them we'll just cling desperately to the one that shows the best weather

Edited June 14, 2022 by andymk

[gazzared]

4 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

Can I ask, out of genuine curiosity and ignorance, why we're focused on GFS and not ECMWF?

it's because of what they stand for : -

Glastonbury Field Shield

Every Cloud Massive Water Fuckers

[steviewevie]

the ECM chart viewer thing on netweather isn't as user friendly as the GFS ones...GFS ones has more UK specific ones...

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

It's too hot.

Fucks sake Stevie 🤨

[steviewevie]

looking at ECM...someone I think said the precipitation one is accumulatad rainfall?...I hope so as this looks kind of scary...

[Justcalledtosay]

efests coming for @steviewevie if it's genuinely going to be a shit show come early next week...

[Alvoram]

28 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

latest GFS showing lots of rain the whole week very close to south-west. Could well be a total washout.

Nonsense. Yes low pressure is a feature for most of that week before, but it shows very little precipitation above Pilton after Sunday.

In fact it shows that high pressure builds in time for the actual weekend. 

 

12 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

Can I ask, out of genuine curiosity and ignorance, why we're focused on GFS and not ECMWF?

 

The ECM is more reliable, however it has a shorter range. The netweather interface is also extremely user friendly, but doesn't offer nearly as many charts as it does for GFS. (Although more ECM charts are available elsewhere.) 

[Alvoram]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

looking at ECM...someone I think said the precipitation one is accumulatad rainfall?...I hope so as this looks kind of scary...

It is accumulated 🙂

Otherwise, if you drag the slider, you'll see that once it's started raining somewhere it never ever stops. 😂😂