The Weather Thread 2022

[fred quimby]

I wonder how many years it will be until @The Nalwill have to change to

We are all going to fry

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

I wonder how many years it will be until @The Nalwill have to change to

We are all going to fry

He’s a climate change denier … it’s wet or very wet 

[Madyaker]

 

[deebeedoobee]

Congratulations to all who secured tickets. Current weather forecast is

[sedra]

So now hopefully tickets are all secured ( sorry to those who weren’t lucky) this is the next worry thread! Will it be the rollercoaster ride of previous years ? I expect so! 
looking forward to detailed weather reports plus @doobedobee local reports from the well and jam jar 😀

[blutarsky]

This'll do: 

[blutarsky]

Bit of rain before gates open on this one:

[Hotchilidog]

Well some quite worrying predictions in there. That 8.7mm and 5.3mm figures are huge! The rest of it all looks fine though.

[Aragorn]

I hope no one is taking any future weather forecasts seriously at this point lol 

[steviewevie]

winter is coming

[Hotchilidog]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

I hope no one is taking any future weather forecasts seriously at this point lol 

We'll be lucky if the one a week before is accurate...still it is all part of the build-up fun. Welcome back Weather Thread!

[tumbles]

[Nal Mode]  We'Re ALl DoOMeD [/Nal Mode]

[gigpusher]

Any weather forecasts this far in advance need to be taken with a cellar of salt. Probably more faith in my visualisation of blue skies on the day we are queuing to get in. 

[deebeedoobee]

Currently dusting off the weather prediction equipment.

• Sticky stick is still stick like . The well is bone dry
• Miss Pat has a slight lean, too much cider.  so may need some work before she comes into commission 
• The RAM jam jar looks a bit manky. May need a wash and brush up. I might supplement the RAM jam jar with the SBB (shite bird bath). I need to design some sort of depth gauge for this first.

anyway, way too early yet to start all this shenanigans.

 

 

[BambooShanks]

39 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said:

Currently dusting off the weather prediction equipment.

Forget Jackone, netweather and all those sites that use 'science', the sticky stick and the ram jam jar are the only ones that really matter.

 

[jfaragher]

Early cuts from a couple of the seasonal model ensembles.  An ensemble forecast takes forecasts from a number of different forecast centres, and does some clever bias correction based on their performance in similated forecasts of past weather ("hindcasts").  Each of the forecasts it includes are also usually an ensemble of the same model run a number of times, with slightly altered initial conditions, to capture some of the inherent uncertainty of forecasting on these timescales. Usual caveats - seasonal models aren't great, and they're even less great if you look at a specific month, rather than the season as a whole.

This is from the World Meteorological Organisation Long Range Forecast.  As you can see, most of Europe is expected to be drier than normal, but no signal as yet for most of the UK:

 

This is from the Copernicus (C3S) Seasonal Project - the forecast is still in development, and they don't have a single month forecast available yet, so this is for the period April to June.  Likewise, limited information about the situation in the UK as yet.

 

Depite the uncertainty, based on the above, I am confidently predicting it will be dry🤣

 

[yehbutnobut]

5 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

Early cuts from a couple of the seasonal model ensembles.  An ensemble forecast takes forecasts from a number of different forecast centres, and does some clever bias correction based on their performance in similated forecasts of past weather ("hindcasts").  Each of the forecasts it includes are also usually an ensemble of the same model run a number of times, with slightly altered initial conditions, to capture some of the inherent uncertainty of forecasting on these timescales. Usual caveats - seasonal models aren't great, and they're even less great if you look at a specific month, rather than the season as a whole.

This is from the World Meteorological Organisation Long Range Forecast.  As you can see, most of Europe is expected to be drier than normal, but no signal as yet for most of the UK:

 

This is from the Copernicus (C3S) Seasonal Project - the forecast is still in development, and they don't have a single month forecast available yet, so this is for the period April to June.  Likewise, limited information about the situation in the UK as yet.

 

Depite the uncertainty, based on the above, I am confidently predicting it will be dry🤣

 

Alas the weather nerds are here again as a backup & comparison to the accurate & detailed weather forecasts provided by @deebeedoobee… 🙌

Looking forward to the dizzy heights & troughs this thread will take us to in the coming months. 🎢 

[jfaragher]

4 minutes ago, yehbutnobut said:

Alas the weather nerds are here again as a backup & comparison to the accurate & detailed weather forecasts provided by @deebeedoobee… 🙌

As someone who has weather nerded for a living, I am a strong believer in the importance of integrating traditional / indigenous / local knowledge into forecast processes.  

More plainly - I'd trust @deebeedoobee as much as me on this one 🙂 

[yehbutnobut]

…and any mention of getting a good finger bashing by the Azores, I will lose my shit. 👉☀️ 

[BambooShanks]

Super long range forecast from metcheck.com looks good.  Slightly damp friday but warm over the weekend.

Will gladly take it at this stage!

 

[deebeedoobee]

50 minutes ago, yehbutnobut said:

Alas the weather nerds are here again as a backup & comparison to the accurate & detailed weather forecasts provided by @deebeedoobee… 🙌

Looking forward to the dizzy heights & troughs this thread will take us to in the coming months. 🎢 

 

45 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

As someone who has weather nerded for a living, I am a strong believer in the importance of integrating traditional / indigenous / local knowledge into forecast processes.  

More plainly - I'd trust @deebeedoobee as much as me on this one 🙂 

I live to serve…….or annoy the nerds.

[jimmillen]

1 hour ago, jfaragher said:

expected to be drier than normal

 

We'll take it! 😄

(Thanks for the detailed info though, love to see it.)

[danmarks]

Weather predictor bloke on This Morning just said its gonna be wet April May and June then good from July.

Could obviously be total rubbish but apparently he is 'normally accurate '.

[Simsy]

2 minutes ago, danmarks said:

Weather predictor bloke on This Morning just said its gonna be wet April May and June then good from July.

Could obviously be total rubbish but apparently he is 'normally accurate '.

Didn't know the Nal was on This Morning!

[blutarsky]

I think it’s time for the state of the ground thread @deebeedoobee