The Weather Thread 2022

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, FrancisH said:

Accuweather wasn't even giving the correct forecast AS IT WAS HAPPENING in Manchester the other day.

Yeah I've found they update their report to what ever the met office did a couple of days earlier. So whatever the met office is saying now... in 2 days accuweather will say the same. But the met will have changed theirs by then haha 

[gigpusher]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I've got a couple.

Underrated post 😄 

[Alvoram]

ECM 00z run is showing some lovely high pressure for the festival weekend

 

 

But it is showing a biblical amount of rain in the few days before gates open... Into the reds now... Will it dry? Almost all of it falls before midday Monday on this chart, so there's a good chance.

(Remember, this is total rainfall between now and Saturday, all of it falls Sunday / Monday, with it remaining mostly dry after that.) 

 

The ECM is known globally as the most reliable model, and this run is pretty consistent with other recent ECM runs, beginning to form a pattern. I think I'd take this, so I hope that reputation holds true. 

[Glastonlocal]

Good old 00z. Keep em coming in Weatherbods. 

[Justcalledtosay]

i'm here for @Alvoram's positivity.

[Trunks1993]

all eyes on the state of the ground thread come Tuesday then….

[fightoffyour]

10 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

ECM 00z run is showing some lovely high pressure for the festival weekend

 

 

But it is showing a biblical amount of rain in the few days before gates open... Into the reds now... Will it dry? Almost all of it falls before midday Monday on this chart, so there's a good chance.

(Remember, this is total rainfall between now and Saturday, all of it falls Sunday / Monday, with it remaining mostly dry after that.) 

 

The ECM is known globally as the most reliable model, and this run is pretty consistent with other recent ECM runs, beginning to form a pattern. I think I'd take this, so I hope that reputation holds true. 

25mm total before Tuesday is fine from this position. High pressure building nicely!

[ErnestWorthing]

Presumably if there's a biblical amount of rain in a short period of time on very hard ground, most of it will just run off?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, ErnestWorthing said:

Presumably if there's a biblical amount of rain in a short period of time on very hard ground, most of it will just run off?

Bingo.

[Suprefan]

5 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

25mm total before Tuesday is fine from this position. High pressure building nicely!

Workers in the fields during the rain

[doogie]

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet, but the boffins at Netweather have done the first of their Glastonbury specific forecasts.

They're going for a 70% sunfest.

[Crumbleflaps]

I'll tell you what the festival weather is going to be Saturday week.

[gigpusher]

My experience at the moment is even when we have had some heavy bouts of rain (and round Manchester that's been happening more often) that it disappears pretty quickly so even with the weekend rain I am confident that the ground will hold up. 

[The Nal]

9 minutes ago, ErnestWorthing said:

Presumably if there's a biblical amount of rain in a short period of time on very hard ground, most of it will just run off?

Or sit on top and get mashed into mud by 250000 people.

[Alvoram]

4 minutes ago, ErnestWorthing said:

Presumably if there's a biblical amount of rain in a short period of time on very hard ground, most of it will just run off?

I don't 'know' the site like most of you guys, but I hope so... Just enough softening to help you get your tent pegs in. 🙂 

If the rain does stop by Monday lunchtime, for the most part it won't still be sat there by Wednesday morning for the arrival of the masses. I'd expect large puddles in places though. In the fields near us, it tends to puddle in the grooves cut by tractors for a few days, and as people walk through them it turns to a mushy mess. Best avoid these areas. 

Still early days though, EVERYTHING can change, but it's not looking bad. 

[mjfiddy]

12 minutes ago, Crumbleflaps said:

I'll tell you what the festival weather is going to be Saturday week.

[K2SO]

Can anyone explain the latest update in plain English? I've been trying to understand the colourful charts but all it's doing is making me crave Skittles.

From what I understand it's a bit of rain this weekend, mostly mild temperatures over the week but fairly dry?

[briddj]

4 minutes ago, K2SO said:

Can anyone explain the latest update in plain English? I've been trying to understand the colourful charts but all it's doing is making me crave Skittles.

From what I understand it's a bit of rain this weekend, mostly mild temperatures over the week but fairly dry?

SCORCHIO on the ECM charts in here.

Not so confident on the GFS, but the next GFS will start in a few minutes.

Edited June 15, 2022 by briddj

[soundofeverything]

The Met Office 10 day trend video comes out later this morning. I reckon they'll reference Glastonbury in there. 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s going to be warmer there than Pilton. 
 

maybe they should move it there.

[TiZuff]

30 minutes ago, K2SO said:

Can anyone explain the latest update in plain English? I've been trying to understand the colourful charts but all it's doing is making me crave Skittles.

From what I understand it's a bit of rain this weekend, mostly mild temperatures over the week but fairly dry?

basically we got a possibility of a huge downpour over the weekend pre-fest but looking like plain sailing after that. hoping for warmer temps to dry off the rain before 150k ppl turn up on the wednesday!

Edited June 15, 2022 by TiZuff

[briddj]

We're about to find out what the 06z gives us for this weekend.

[briddj]

THIS WEEKEND

There is rain around on Sunday evening, but nothing too bad at all.

 

 

And the good news is that the high pressure appears to be winning the battle. So far.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by briddj

[The Other Steve]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

THIS WEEKEND

The Pilton forcefield is in play in this update, with the rain pushed out eastwards. There will be some rain on the site, but nothing of any concern.

 

And the good news is that the high pressure appears to be winning the battle. So far.

 

Very nice 😎

[Ed90]

This is where it gets dangerous - I'm starting to believe