The Weather Thread 2022

[tigger123]

50 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

This is an absolute car crash of a run.

You’re really not funny, don’t waste your breath, pound shop Nal is all you are

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Yes. So no one knows yet.

5 days in advance for temp.

3 days for rain.

But the chat of Sunday week is Walter Mitty stuff

You're right, generally, but not always... Have a look back in this thread and see how long ago this weekend coming's heat followed by heavy rain was showing up regularly as a pattern

Nothing standout for next week / weekend though. 

If anything the pattern that's showing the strongest is mundane weather, 18-20 with a few light showers possibly in the area, possibly not. But I refuse to accept that!!! 🙈😂 

[March Hare]

27 minutes ago, mazola said:

Sees @The Nal getting upvotes for doom mongering, and thinks 'I can do that!'

Fails miserably at trying to do that

There are upvotes for doom mongering. I’ve been playing this game wrong

[stopwn1981]

I think we can all agree the trend is deteriorating at this point 

[briddj]

18 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Yes. So no one knows yet.

5 days in advance for temp.

3 days for rain.

But the chat of Sunday week is Walter Mitty stuff

See you in 5 hours. 😆

[briddj]

20 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

People saying twist on this, what have we become 😳

20 degrees or no deal.

[PolygonWindow]

3 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

I think we can all agree the trend is deteriorating at this point 

Na not at all.

Other models are looking ok I believe.

Still ample time.

[briddj]

4 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

I think we can all agree the trend is deteriorating at this point 

Not sure where you're seeing that.

 

[AlexOvd]

6 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

I think we can all agree the trend is deteriorating at this point 

Super relative. The big big worry it was the torrential rain over Sunday/Monday and now it's almost nothing and it totally rules out 2016 conditions (considering the extra fact that it must be one of the driest and hottest June ever). That's a possitive sign. What happens after that is still all to play for.

Edited June 15, 2022 by AlexOvd

[PolygonWindow]

It’s time to worry when they ALL go to shit. Not just 1.

[henry bear]

58 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

This is an absolute car crash of a run.

 

[gazzared]

26 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Anyone complaining about 18 degree temperatures during a dry Glastonbury needs to ‘ave a word with themselves. 

yeah its feffin perfect, easier to put a jumper/light jacket on in the eveing than be destroyed by 30 degree heat in the day 👍

[AlexOvd]

4 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

It’s time to worry when they ALL go to shit. Not just 1.

Or when BBC weather will predict rain.

[BambooShanks]

6 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

I think we can all agree the trend is deteriorating at this point 

 

The last GFS run wasn't that bad.  A bit cold but the important thing is the rainfall was a lot lower than expected.  Remember, we had over 20mm of rain forecast for a few days before the festival and that's massively reduced now.

The current ECMWF run is looking quite good so there's some cause for optimism there.

Still a week to go before the gates open.  A lot can and will change in the meantime so stay strapped in to the rollercoaster, folks

 

 

[PolygonWindow]

5 minutes ago, gazzared said:

yeah its feffin perfect, easier to put a jumper/light jacket on in the eveing than be destroyed by 30 degree heat in the day 👍

That is unreal. What site is that ?

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, gazzared said:

yeah its feffin perfect, easier to put a jumper/light jacket on in the eveing than be destroyed by 30 degree heat in the day 👍

I wouldn't say no to an extra degree or two, but I would happily take this over rain or 27+ temps.

[Aragorn]

Need to look at the ensembles rather than 1 run. The operational could easily be an outlier

[AlexOvd]

2 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

That is unreal. What site is that ?

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/d0112f4e8ff8ffe2fa3c8985422d394043848c2354cc7060627a8bae12548489

[topmarksbri]

Anyone who's twisting on a (mostly) dry festival is hubristic in the extreme, and if greek tragedy taught us anything it's the gods don't look kindly on hubris

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Need to look at the ensembles rather than 1 run. The operational could easily be an outlier

I can safely predict we will all keep looking at individual runs.

[Alvoram]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

I wouldn't say no to an extra degree or two, but I would happily take this over rain or 27+ temps.

Apart from rain on arrival day, it's fairly similar to to the latest gfs

 

3 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Need to look at the ensembles rather than 1 run. The operational could easily be an outlier

True... But when you're religiously checking and recording every single run without fail it's the same thing is it not? 

Also, I wish netweather allowed you to zoom in for more detail on the ensembles. 

[andymk]

1 minute ago, Alvoram said:

Apart from rain on arrival day, it's fairly similar to to the latest gfs

 

True... But when you're religiously checking and recording every single run without fail it's the same thing is it not? 

Also, I wish netweather allowed you to zoom in for more detail on the ensembles. 

Try Wetterzentrale https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0

You can zoom in on the different runs and highlight the differences across the timeline.

here's the latest GFS ensembles for precipitation

and temperature (where the low temps in the operational run are on the lower side of most of the others)

[Alvoram]

1 minute ago, andymk said:

Try Wetterzentrale https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0

You can zoom in on the different runs and highlight the differences across the timeline.

here's the latest GFS ensembles for precipitation

and temperature (where the low temps in the operational run are on the lower side of most of the others)

Thank you!!! That is bloody brilliant!

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

That is unreal. What site is that ?

bit windy though...when will people listen to my wind worries?

[steviewevie]

Forecasts are so uncertain because of the high vs low thing...just a little bit of movement either way makes such a big difference.

Edited June 15, 2022 by steviewevie