The Weather Thread 2022

[FuzzyDunlop]

I repeat...

Far too hot to start. The rest I can deal with...

Conclusion: No good for anyone

Twist

[GregsyA]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

I honestly don’t understand how this is a bad run.

Getting in to an increasingly reliable timeframe with decent weather showing is good.

Farther out which is more unreliable it’s bad so has change to flip.

How am I the only one seeing this?!

You are being rational and working by percentages. I am reacting emotionally to an unreliable prediction which says rain all weekend (when the one 12 hours ago said sunny all weekend). 

[steviewevie]

Bit shit. Too hot wed and Thurs leading to a break down and rain.

[nikkic]

Nobody has a fucking clue still 

[Aragorn]

6 hours ago, briddj said:

And on to the festival proper!

FRIDAY

Oh no. Rain around through most of the day before clearing in the evening. Highs of only 17 now.

 

The low is really pushing in now.... It's going to be a bad run....

 

Operational was somewhat an outlier I terms of air pressure

 

 

[Suprefan]

Bbc weather still giving hope lol

 

somebody bring the met guy back 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Suprefan

[Sheffield Steve]

 

Bear in mind that the other 2 major models which go out as far as the Glasto weekend DO NOT AGREE with the GFS (American model), as shown above when the GFS has it tipping down at midnight Fri/Sat.   The ECM (European) and GEM (Canadian) do not have the rain at all and keep the low much further to our north and east.  

The GFS is often keen on being more progressive with these lows, so if I were a betting man, I’d say the ECM and GEM outcome is more likely.  We’ll know much more when the UK Met Office model goes as far out as this in a couple of days.   DON’T PANIC!

[chazwwe]

17 degrees and raining all weekend. Time to panic. Wheres Nal. 

[Suprefan]

Wet Legs for everyone on friday?

[GregsyA]

3 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

 

Bear in mind that the other 2 major models which go out as far as the Glasto weekend DO NOT AGREE with the GFS (American model), as shown above when the GFS has it tipping down at midnight Fri/Sat.   The ECM (European) and GEM (Canadian) do not have the rain at all and keep the low much further to our north and east.  

The GFS is often keen on being more progressive with these lows, so if I were a betting man, I’d say the ECM and GEM outcome is more likely.  We’ll know much more when the UK Met Office model goes as far out as this in a couple of days.   DON’T PANIC!

I've always trusted ECM. GFS is an idiot. 

[Billy Corgans hair]

Best thing is by the time all the doomers wake up, the forecast will be 25 degrees again

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

 

Bear in mind that the other 2 major models which go out as far as the Glasto weekend DO NOT AGREE with the GFS (American model), as shown above when the GFS has it tipping down at midnight Fri/Sat.   The ECM (European) and GEM (Canadian) do not have the rain at all and keep the low much further to our north and east.  

The GFS is often keen on being more progressive with these lows, so if I were a betting man, I’d say the ECM and GEM outcome is more likely.  We’ll know much more when the UK Met Office model goes as far out as this in a couple of days.   DON’T PANIC!

have always like the Canadians.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

Wet Legs for everyone on friday?

might need some Dry Cleaning.

[stopwn1981]

So now can we agree that the trend is deteriorating?

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

So now can we agree that the trend is deteriorating?

yes, definitely worse. I think too hot Weds/Thurs which some will disagree with, and then goes the other way and gets wet and cold for actual festival. Very poor GFS, must try harder.

[steviewevie]

so the high over the atlantic loses out to this sneaky little fucker coming in from the north west

[steviewevie]

netweather's 10 day forecast...still has hot next few days followed by rain this weekend...then hot again for start of festival...then rain again and maybe storms for the festival

Edited June 16, 2022 by steviewevie

[briddj]

31 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I honestly don’t understand how this is a bad run.

Getting in to an increasingly reliable timeframe with decent weather showing is good.

Farther out which is more unreliable it’s bad so has chance to flip.

How am I the only one seeing this?!

Because on THESE runs, it's pissing down during the festival. That isn't a good run.

[nikkic]

15 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

17 degrees and raining all weekend. Time to panic. Wheres Nal. 

Probably off telling kids Father Christmas isn't real.

[PassingCloud]

Booo….Yay…Booo….Yay…..Booo……

[AlexOvd]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

netweather's 10 day forecast...still has hot next few days followed by rain this weekend...then hot again for start of festival...then rain again and maybe storms for the festival

After yesterday, this is heartbreaking. 

[Euphoricape]

It will change to glorious again by tomorrow latest

[Aragorn]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

so the high over the atlantic loses out to this sneaky little fucker coming in from the north west

 

As said most of the runs on the 00z do not bring that low in as severely. One to put aside

[squirrelarmy]

Here’s how the run looks on MetCheck. 
 

Reinforces my point about if it’s not hot at Glastonbury then it’s raining. 
 

In real terms though it’s only half an inch of rain over 4 days, the ground can handle it but will be cold wet and miserable. Might as well be in Manchester. 
 

 

[gherkin8r]

41 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I honestly don’t understand how this is a bad run.

Getting in to an increasingly reliable timeframe with decent weather showing is good.

Farther out which is more unreliable it’s bad so has chance to flip.

How am I the only one seeing this?!

I'm choosing to think like this.

Days 1-4 (high confidence): The heavy rain over this weekend and into Monday is no longer being forecast. WIN

Days 5-7 (med confidence): Dry and warm for the 3 day period while people are arriving and settling in.

Days 8-10 (low confidence): ignore for now