The Weather Thread 2022

[PolygonWindow]

1 minute ago, Crumbleflaps said:

Toss a coin territory.

Between mud bath and 2019?

[chazwwe]

When is it that we kinda really know? Is it 4 days out? So Saturday we should know what Wednesday looks like pretty well?

[Brownie30]

I don't own wellies. Do I need to buy some wellies? (I do have walking boots...) 

[Haj88]

Iphone says sunny/cloudy

That's good enough for me

[Crumbleflaps]

4 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

Between mud bath and 2019?

Pretty much.

[woyski]

2 minutes ago, Brownie30 said:

I don't own wellies. Do I need to buy some wellies? (I do have walking boots...) 

Nah you'll be fine in good walking boots

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

When is it that we kinda really know? Is it 4 days out? So Saturday we should know what Wednesday looks like pretty well?

closer you get, the higher the confidence...but still even the day before forecasts for rainfall can be wrong. Still, usually 3 days before should have a pretty good idea...

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Brownie30 said:

I don't own wellies. Do I need to buy some wellies? (I do have walking boots...) 

Yeah, me too. At moment I am thinking that walking boots will be enough...but if forecasts deteriorate even more by the weekend I'll probably go buy some...

[chazwwe]

Just now, steviewevie said:

closer you get, the higher the confidence...but still even the day before forecasts for rainfall can be wrong. Still, usually 3 days before should have a pretty good idea...

From what I remember in discussions in 2019. If its not raining on the forcast, its very doubtful that it'll rain, if it isn't raining much there's a chance it won't even hit the site/certain areas of the site. 

I jsut want a nice 19-21 degree festival, even if there's a shower or two. 

[chazwwe]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Yeah, me too. At moment I am thinking that walking boots will be enough...but if forecasts deteriorate even more by the weekend I'll probably go buy some...

I managed walking boots with gators in 2016 and will continue to live by them. Only way I'll turn off if it rains to the level of 2016 pre festival and then the same amount of rain during the festival. Then i'd probably buy some there....Maybe

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

I jsut want a nice 19-21 degree festival, even if there's a shower or two. 

We want around 18 to 21 degrees, hazy sunshine apart from no haze at sunrise and sunset. No wind as it affects sound, dry underfoot, ground easy to lie on with a few beers. 

[The Nal]

So Countryfile are total c**ts? 

[doogie]

ECMWF 12z just completed and looks a bit more promising.

All is not lost (yet)!

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

Edited June 16, 2022 by doogie

[Pinhead]

Not really - its just one of the tools in the kit that help to make a packing decision I think.

[Pinhead]

Look, I see nothing that makes it looks like a total disaster weather wise, the trend is for a breakdown perhaps but not one that at a local level at least we might have a good chance of missing so hey, fingers crossed. Its looked worse b4 tbh.

[fightoffyour]

Glastonbury Forecast Sucks

[Euphoricape]

13 minutes ago, doogie said:

ECMWF 12z just completed and looks a bit more promising.

All is not lost (yet)!

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

Are these charts normally more reliable than the GFS charts?

[FuzzyDunlop]

35 minutes ago, Brownie30 said:

I don't own wellies. Do I need to buy some wellies? (I do have walking boots...) 

Nah. I had wellies for festivals up until 2015. Since then walking boots. 2016 in boots & that was a particularly muddy one

[doogie]

14 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Are these charts normally more reliable than the GFS charts?

A quick google says they generally are 😀

Edited June 16, 2022 by doogie

[AlexOvd]

AccuWeather not showing any rain now

Edited June 16, 2022 by AlexOvd

[danbailey80]

57 minutes ago, briddj said:

Not even that. It's recorded in the morning. 

Indeed. c**tryfile.I know it's always seen as fun here. But I get weirdly annoyed with it. One, it's the most fucking boring show in the world and most of all the weather is not even live. So it's out of date from the morning. Finally they haven't mentioned Glastonbury for years which really annoys me because if they were even vaguely aware theyd play a little to their audience just one day a year. Bunch of twats. 

[stopwn1981]

“At no point since 2007 (and likely for a while before then) has the GFS produced an generally more accurate 5-day forecast for the Northern Hemisphere between 20 and 80N than the ECMWF. That being said, there have been many cases where the GFS has been more accurate than the ECMWF for specific storms”

Source: the internet 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

And even that's wildy inaccurate past Wednesday 

They've never got the full 5 days right. Ever. 

They did in 2010.

[kingbadger]

1 hour ago, The Nal said:

YR have updated!! 

Rain everyday and into Saturday afternoon now. 

An absolute disaster

 

Very low temps too, no chance for it to dry out. Plus rain all day Friday. Combination of 2007 and 2016? 

[PolygonWindow]

4 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

AccuWeather not showing any rain now

Bosch