The Weather Thread 2022

[Neil]

21 hours ago, benc said:

how certain are we of a sunny Glastonbury festival now?

very 😄 

[AlexOvd]

AccuWeather is still resisting

[Alvoram]

25 minutes ago, The Other Steve said:

What I don't get is why the TV weather and Apps are so different to all the patterns shared on here 🤯

 

They're forecasts...

Single runs of a forecasting model (a kind of computer simulation) are what most are sharing in here.

A single run of model is not, in any way, a forecast!

In fact, regardless of the number of runs, a single model in itself is not used to make a forecast, the best forecasts are made by looking at data from multiple runs of multiple models. 

This might help...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/18/what-exactly-are-weather-models-and-how-do-they-work/ (Especially the last 2 paragraphs.) 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Alvoram

[squirrelarmy]

MetCheck was on our side. 😡

 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by squirrelarmy
Updated forecast

[fightoffyour]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

MetCheck still on our side.

 

Too cold on Sunday. Twist it. Flick it. Pull it. Bop it.

[DirtyLurker]

7 minutes ago, The Nal said:

So disappointing isn't it?

What could've been. Glorious sun, gentle breeze and space to sit down and relax if needed.

 

Now we're looking at endless showers without warning, lethargically traipsing around the paths like cattle because everywhere else it too muddy, nowhere to sit down when you're eating, 5 days of back pain, rain splashing into your pint, reversing into your freezing cold tent at night on your arse in the pitch black while battling to take your wellies off trying to minimise how much mud you get in your tent as the other half is giving out, huge queues for water and showers, dead atmospheres at gigs, people leaving early, dropping your phone in the mud, taking twice as long to walk between stages and sweating like boil in the bag rice in your rain mac while all the while pretending to enjoy yourself.

This has to be the only reason anyone ever checks this thread, no?

The fortune telling forecasts are nothing compared with this absolute gem of a post 😆

[ModernMan]

Tbh 17 degrees with bits of sun would actually be quite nice. Being able to sit down is the most important thing and the ground looks like it’ll be dry/not2016. Can’t wait!
 

if you’re worried about the weather,

then you picked the wrong place to stay

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Too cold on Sunday. Twist it. Flick it. Pull it. Bop it.

It’s too cold on Friday as well. I won’t be happy unless it’s 40 degrees and we need camels to transport water for us across the site. 

[Alvoram]

2 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s too cold on Friday as well. I won’t be happy unless it’s 40 degrees and we need camels to transport water for us across the site. 

Agreed... Yesterday was nice though... So I 'suppose' 31c will do at a push!

[Joshuwarr]

Metcheck for me is saying it will feel like 3 degrees on Sunday morning and only 5 degrees at lunch 😨

[The Other Steve]

12 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

They're forecasts...

Single runs of a forecasting model (a kind of computer simulation) are what most are sharing in here.

A single run of model is not, in any way, a forecast!

In fact, regardless of the number of runs, a single model in itself is not used to make a forecast, the best forecasts are made by looking at data from multiple runs of multiple models. 

This might help...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/18/what-exactly-are-weather-models-and-how-do-they-work/ (Especially the last 2 paragraphs.) 

Thanks for the above, good read.  I'll be applying for a new career in weather forecasting by the time I get back 😂

Edited June 18, 2022 by The Other Steve

[AlexOvd]

18 minutes ago, The Nal said:

So disappointing isn't it?

What could've been. Glorious sun, gentle breeze and space to sit down and relax if needed.

 

Now we're looking at endless showers without warning, lethargically traipsing around the paths like cattle because everywhere else it too muddy, nowhere to sit down when you're eating, 5 days of back pain, rain splashing into your pint, reversing into your freezing cold tent at night on your arse in the pitch black while battling to take your wellies off trying to minimise how much mud you get in your tent as the other half is giving out, huge queues for water and showers, dead atmospheres at gigs, people leaving early, dropping your phone in the mud, taking twice as long to walk between stages and sweating like boil in the bag rice in your rain mac while all the while pretending to enjoy yourself.

Sounds like a plan. 

[Henrik]

37 minutes ago, Walter Sobchak said:

I’ve had enough, can’t take it anymore.  Will check in again on Wednesday morning.

See you at noon for the results of the next GFS run

[Henrik]

6 minutes ago, Joshuwarr said:

Metcheck for me is saying it will feel like 3 degrees on Sunday morning and only 5 degrees at lunch 😨

Now only 3 degrees away from our first freezing Glastonbury. 
 

Hope it doesn’t rain. The site will be like a bloody ice rink. 

[basquille]

Is there anything to be said for Countryfile?!? 😁

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, Joshuwarr said:

Metcheck for me is saying it will feel like 3 degrees on Sunday morning and only 5 degrees at lunch 😨

It’s just updated. 😡

Stevie and Fuzzy will have sent a letter of complaint in. 

[Alvoram]

Just now, Henrik said:

See you at noon for the results of the next GFS run

These timings are not great at all for my work productivity, in the week I start at 5pm just as the 12z is updating, and at the weekend I start between 11 and 12, just as the 6z is running... 🙈😂

[Suprefan]

51 minutes ago, Billy Corgans hair said:

BBC just updated, no rain but cold and windy

Thats fine. I got a scarf and a jacket.

 

so tomorrow or monday forecast is the end all be all? I was packing my kit and i was leaning towards no boots.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Suprefan

[squirrelarmy]

18 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Too cold on Sunday. Twist it. Flick it. Pull it. Bop it.

MetCheck updated as per your request. 
 

It’s now even colder 😡

Everyone needs to pack their thermals  

[howlin_pete]

26 minutes ago, The Nal said:

So disappointing isn't it?

What could've been. Glorious sun, gentle breeze and space to sit down and relax if needed.

 

Now we're looking at endless showers without warning, lethargically traipsing around the paths like cattle because everywhere else it too muddy, nowhere to sit down when you're eating, 5 days of back pain, rain splashing into your pint, reversing into your freezing cold tent at night on your arse in the pitch black while battling to take your wellies off trying to minimise how much mud you get in your tent as the other half is giving out, huge queues for water and showers, dead atmospheres at gigs, people leaving early, dropping your phone in the mud, taking twice as long to walk between stages and sweating like boil in the bag rice in your rain mac while all the while pretending to enjoy yourself.

So your thinking wellies then?

[Euphoricape]

27 minutes ago, The Nal said:

So disappointing isn't it?

What could've been. Glorious sun, gentle breeze and space to sit down and relax if needed.

 

Now we're looking at endless showers without warning, lethargically traipsing around the paths like cattle because everywhere else it too muddy, nowhere to sit down when you're eating, 5 days of back pain, rain splashing into your pint, reversing into your freezing cold tent at night on your arse in the pitch black while battling to take your wellies off trying to minimise how much mud you get in your tent as the other half is giving out, huge queues for water and showers, dead atmospheres at gigs, people leaving early, dropping your phone in the mud, taking twice as long to walk between stages and sweating like boil in the bag rice in your rain mac while all the while pretending to enjoy yourself.

I just literally pissed myself reading this. Top tier 🤣🤣

[Robinn]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

MetCheck updated as per your request. 
 

It’s now even colder 😡

Twist it, flick it, pull it and bop it back!

[Euphoricape]

Accuweather still on our side

[TaylorT]

These weather models are a total riot man 😂😂😂

[Colorblindjames]

Let’s stay positive still showing zero chance of snow.