The Weather Thread 2022

[Guy Incognito]

I can deal with showers. Doesn't look like there's going to be endless days of heavy rain which is the main thing. 

[PolygonWindow]

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

As does the latest GFS 😳

I reckon this is unlikely

[jparx]

1 minute ago, PolygonWindow said:

I look at this GFS and it tell me it’s gonna shit down all day Sat and Sun but surely that’s not correct? Does it look a lot worse than what will actually happen?

I think we’re looking at showers, but it’s just when they hit and how much we get. Could blow past us or could utterly drench us. We won’t really know until it’s above is 

[stopwn1981]

Don’t look like much fun Saturday - anyone who looks at this and see showers - I admire your positivity 

Edited June 20, 2022 by stopwn1981

[Splatt]

Well this looks rubbish.

[fightoffyour]

Positive from the GFS: the low pressure blob is smaller and moves back out West earlier on Sunday than the previous run. Chance of it fucking off completely in future runs.

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

4 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Rain overnight into Saturday, then a total shitshow in the daytime. Dry for McCartney I suppose.

 

Sunday light showers but not much.

This run can get in the bin. Realistically pinning hopes on Met Office now, who seem to be an outlier in that they expect rainfall to be very light and in showers. 

[Quark]

This whole thing has changed about 5 times today. It's gonna be changeable. We'll have some weather. It'll be grand.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Three years we've waited and this is what we get.

[Splatt]

I preferred the olden days with one forecast a day on tv.  too much data for me to process now! 

[Euphoricape]

I hope we don't lose the Thursday to rain too..

[Henrik]

Literally 3 days earlier and it would have been glorious. 

[stopwn1981]

1 minute ago, Euphoricape said:

I hope we don't lose the Thursday to rain too..

4 out of 5 days with the wet stuff falling on latest runs. I genuinely can’t think of the last time it rained 4 days in a row 😂

[jparx]

Just now, stopwn1981 said:

4 out of 5 days with the wet stuff falling on latest runs. I genuinely can’t think of the last time it rained 4 days in a row 😂

Which is why it probably won’t. Rain is so hard to predict, with these forecasts you’ll see a big band of raining moving about but that doesn’t mean it’ll rain constantly. It’s not usual for us to have that weather for such an extended time at this time of year anymore. I think we’ll see this as an outlier and be looking at showers over the weekend again in the next runs.

[briddj]

Right then, let's get this 12Z done. Gulp.

WEDNESDAY

Dry all day, highs of 24.

Similar situation with the pressure.

THURSDAY

Still dry, temps of 25. Still no real evidence of the rain mentioned in other models, with any precipitation hitting more in southern Wales.

So the low coming down seems set in stone. But what will it do?

FRIDAY

Again, all the rain appears to be hitting southern Wales and Cornwall and missing the site. But it's on the cusp. Highs of 21.

Another similar pressure position for Friday, with the low still out to the west. Hold onto your hats.

SATURDAY

Rain arrives from the earlier morning, then the site is - again - right on the edge of this clusterfuck. Rain clears away early evening. Highs of 14 (!) on this run.  😶

This time the low is struggling to get into the UK, and is only just encroaching on the UK on Saturday. Better! However, this is also the reason for the heavy rain being where it is. Not better! But there's time. 😐

SUNDAY

Light rain around during the day, but nothing much. Dry in the evening, Improved highs of 18.

Good news! While the low does swing round the bottom half of the UK overnight on Saturday, it does end up positioned over the north. Can we get more of this and have a real shift of the low? There's still time!

MONDAY MORNING

Have a lie in....

SUMMARY

A better all-round run which shows the difference the position of the low is going to make. Most of the worst of the rain is shown not to fall on the site. But... You know... KNIFE. EDGE.

There is still time for the low to edge a little further north. COME ON, YOU BASTARD.

[RaphPH]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Which is why it probably won’t. Rain is so hard to predict, with these forecasts you’ll see a big band of raining moving about but that doesn’t mean it’ll rain constantly. It’s not usual for us to have that weather for such an extended time at this time of year anymore. I think we’ll see this as an outlier and be looking at showers over the weekend again in the next runs.

According to my iPhone weather app yesterday was 80% chance of rain and it’s correct it was. But it was light spitting for half an hour and most of the day was hot and dry and sunny. But it did rain. 

[stopwn1981]

All eyes on UKMO and ECM in a bit 

[panasonic2011]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, let's get this 12Z done. Gulp.

WEDNESDAY

Dry all day, highs of 24.

Similar situation with the pressure.

THURSDAY

Still dry, temps of 25. Still no real evidence of the rain mentioned in other models, with any precipitation hitting more in southern Wales.

So the low coming down seems set in stone. But what will it do?

FRIDAY

Again, all the rain appears to be hitting southern Wales and Cornwall and missing the site. But it's on the cusp. Highs of 21.

Another similar pressure position for Friday, with the low still out to the west. Hold onto your hats.

SATURDAY

Rain arrives from the earlier morning, then the site is - again - right on the edge of this clusterfuck. Rain clears away early evening. Highs of 14 (!) on this run.  😶

This time the low is struggling to get into the UK, and is only just encroaching on the UK on Saturday. Better! However, this is also the reason for the heavy rain being where it is. Not better! But there's time. 😐

SUNDAY

Light rain around during the day, but nothing much. Dry in the evening, Improved highs of 18.

Good news! While the low does swing round the bottom half of the UK overnight on Saturday, it does end up positioned over the north. Can we get more of this and have a real shift of the low? There's still time!

MONDAY MORNING

Have a lie in....

SUMMARY

A better all-round run which shows the difference the position of the low is going to make. Most of the worst of the rain is shown not to fall on the site. But... You know... KNIFE. EDGE.

There is still time for the low to edge a little further north. COME ON, YOU BASTARD.

Yes come on you Bastard!!! 

[jparx]

Just now, RaphPH said:

According to my iPhone weather app yesterday was 80% chance of rain and it’s correct it was. But it was light spitting for half an hour and most of the day was hot and dry and sunny. But it did rain. 

Exactly - that’s what I think met office are basically saying for next weekend.

By the by, their forecast has updated again and still showing dry until Saturday, with showers moving over that and Sunday.

[PolygonWindow]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, let's get this 12Z done. Gulp.

WEDNESDAY

Dry all day, highs of 24.

Similar situation with the pressure.

THURSDAY

Still dry, temps of 25. Still no real evidence of the rain mentioned in other models, with any precipitation hitting more in southern Wales.

So the low coming down seems set in stone. But what will it do?

FRIDAY

Again, all the rain appears to be hitting southern Wales and Cornwall and missing the site. But it's on the cusp. Highs of 21.

Another similar pressure position for Friday, with the low still out to the west. Hold onto your hats.

SATURDAY

Rain arrives from the earlier morning, then the site is - again - right on the edge of this clusterfuck. Rain clears away early evening. Highs of 14 (!) on this run.  😶

This time the low is struggling to get into the UK, and is only just encroaching on the UK on Saturday. Better! However, this is also the reason for the heavy rain being where it is. Not better! But there's time. 😐

SUNDAY

Light rain around during the day, but nothing much. Dry in the evening, Improved highs of 18.

Good news! While the low does swing round the bottom half of the UK overnight on Saturday, it does end up positioned over the north. Can we get more of this and have a real shift of the low? There's still time!

MONDAY MORNING

Have a lie in....

SUMMARY

A better all-round run which shows the difference the position of the low is going to make. Most of the worst of the rain is shown not to fall on the site. But... You know... KNIFE. EDGE.

There is still time for the low to edge a little further north. COME ON, YOU BASTARD.

Not bad

 

and btw - if a forecast is giving you a high of 14 in Jun you know it’s bollox

[briddj]

20 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

As does the latest GFS 😳

The GFS is 12Z for Thursday evening has the low no different to what it's been for a few runs and the rain doesn't hit the site.

Edited June 20, 2022 by briddj

[Euphoricape]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, let's get this 12Z done. Gulp.

WEDNESDAY

Dry all day, highs of 24.

Similar situation with the pressure.

THURSDAY

Still dry, temps of 25. Still no real evidence of the rain mentioned in other models, with any precipitation hitting more in southern Wales.

So the low coming down seems set in stone. But what will it do?

FRIDAY

Again, all the rain appears to be hitting southern Wales and Cornwall and missing the site. But it's on the cusp. Highs of 21.

Another similar pressure position for Friday, with the low still out to the west. Hold onto your hats.

SATURDAY

Rain arrives from the earlier morning, then the site is - again - right on the edge of this clusterfuck. Rain clears away early evening. Highs of 14 (!) on this run.  😶

This time the low is struggling to get into the UK, and is only just encroaching on the UK on Saturday. Better! However, this is also the reason for the heavy rain being where it is. Not better! But there's time. 😐

SUNDAY

Light rain around during the day, but nothing much. Dry in the evening, Improved highs of 18.

Good news! While the low does swing round the bottom half of the UK overnight on Saturday, it does end up positioned over the north. Can we get more of this and have a real shift of the low? There's still time!

MONDAY MORNING

Have a lie in....

SUMMARY

A better all-round run which shows the difference the position of the low is going to make. Most of the worst of the rain is shown not to fall on the site. But... You know... KNIFE. EDGE.

There is still time for the low to edge a little further north. COME ON, YOU BASTARD.

Good stuff 👏 

Fingers crossed for the low to get further away, the bastard.

[AlexOvd]

4 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, let's get this 12Z done. Gulp.

WEDNESDAY

Dry all day, highs of 24.

Similar situation with the pressure.

THURSDAY

Still dry, temps of 25. Still no real evidence of the rain mentioned in other models, with any precipitation hitting more in southern Wales.

So the low coming down seems set in stone. But what will it do?

FRIDAY

Again, all the rain appears to be hitting southern Wales and Cornwall and missing the site. But it's on the cusp. Highs of 21.

Another similar pressure position for Friday, with the low still out to the west. Hold onto your hats.

SATURDAY

Rain arrives from the earlier morning, then the site is - again - right on the edge of this clusterfuck. Rain clears away early evening. Highs of 14 (!) on this run.  😶

This time the low is struggling to get into the UK, and is only just encroaching on the UK on Saturday. Better! However, this is also the reason for the heavy rain being where it is. Not better! But there's time. 😐

SUNDAY

Light rain around during the day, but nothing much. Dry in the evening, Improved highs of 18.

Good news! While the low does swing round the bottom half of the UK overnight on Saturday, it does end up positioned over the north. Can we get more of this and have a real shift of the low? There's still time!

MONDAY MORNING

Have a lie in....

SUMMARY

A better all-round run which shows the difference the position of the low is going to make. Most of the worst of the rain is shown not to fall on the site. But... You know... KNIFE. EDGE.

There is still time for the low to edge a little further north. COME ON, YOU BASTARD.

That buble is getting smaller! Still time until Friday to get this under control. 

[fightoffyour]

I reckon this low bollock is gonna dissipate in the next runs

[briddj]

17 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Positive from the GFS: the low pressure blob is smaller and moves back out West earlier on Sunday than the previous run. Chance of it fucking off completely in future runs.

Yes, I don't think this is a terrible run. It is one fraught with danger, but very little of the rain hits the site.