The Weather Thread 2022

[The Nal]

Only 29 days to go and a lot of rain forecast in the build up. Really worrying pattern emerging. 

[steviewevie]

and if sunny you can add about 5 to those numbers...honestly those temperatures would be great...and then everyone can keep their tops on. Perfect.

[steviewevie]

From here:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly

Rest of month: Monday 13th June - Tuesday 21st June

The weather looks set to remain drier and more settled than average in south-western Britain, but with a tendency towards more unsettled and cooler weather pushing in from the north-west as the period progresses, with pressure falling to the north and north-east of Britain. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for most of the UK during this period, starting off slightly above normal and trending below normal towards the end of the period. Rainfall totals will also be mostly near normal except in the south-west. There is considerable uncertainty over sunshine amounts during this period, but they are likely to continue above normal in the south-west.

[moogster]

Because you are all doing a grand job checking UK info, I am browing European forecasts.

The French are showing this lovely map for June:

BUT July is like this.

 

 

[squirrelarmy]

@steviewevie check out Secret Solstice in Iceland. Those temps might be more to your liking. 

[JoBalls]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

From here:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly

Rest of month: Monday 13th June - Tuesday 21st June

The weather looks set to remain drier and more settled than average in south-western Britain, but with a tendency towards more unsettled and cooler weather pushing in from the north-west as the period progresses, with pressure falling to the north and north-east of Britain. Temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for most of the UK during this period, starting off slightly above normal and trending below normal towards the end of the period. Rainfall totals will also be mostly near normal except in the south-west. There is considerable uncertainty over sunshine amounts during this period, but they are likely to continue above normal in the south-west.

This reads to me like the build up is going to be dry and warm in the South West, which is good news. The thing that caused the problem in 2016 was that the ground was completely saturated before the festival had even begun, we had no hope whatsoever. 

If the ground is dry it would be able to soak up the 5.5mm of rain that’s currently forecast during the festival easily.

10 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

The only reality is until one week (or less) from the festival, we won't have idea of the real weather we will have. Whatever predictions/tendencies say now. Calm down 😄 

Very true, I seem to remember being very prepared for a bad weather one in 2019 and then the forecast changing quite close to the festival.

[FuzzyDunlop]

33 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Metcheck have fixed their bug. You’re right it’s not good news. 
 

Where is that forum poster who was asking for cooler weather 😡

Stick

[steviewevie]

I just want nice, civilised British temperatures, without the British rain.

[steviewevie]

This forum is the one to follow for your weather geekiness...currently they're wondering if we're going to get a cool, wet June.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96872-model-output-discussion-looking-into-late-spring/page/73/

[SighMo]

28 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Only 29 days to go and a lot of rain forecast in the build up. Really worrying pattern emerging. 

This is what this thread was missing…keep it coming. 

[GregsyA]

19 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

This reads to me like the build up is going to be dry and warm in the South West, which is good news. The thing that caused the problem in 2016 was that the ground was completely saturated before the festival had even begun, we had no hope whatsoever. 

If the ground is dry it would be able to soak up the 5.5mm of rain that’s currently forecast during the festival easily.

Very true, I seem to remember being very prepared for a bad weather one in 2019 and then the forecast changing quite close to the festival.

I just had a look back at the weather chat in the lead up to the 2019 festival. In early June it was cold and pissing down all over the country. With 2 weeks to go, it was raining heavily, and the forecasts generally predicted a wet remainder of June. Countryfile declared - "better get used to the rain, folks". Gloomy vibes on Glasto Chat. With a week to go, it was still raining a lot, but word started to emerge of a possible heatwave in festival week. By the Tuesday of the festival it had been completely firmed up -  all forecasts were of all-day sunshine. 

All of this simply tells me what I already knew, that none of this means anything until about a week before. But I'll be on here every day, pouring obsessively over every new prediction, all the same.

[The Nal]

4 minutes ago, GregsyA said:

I just had a look back at the weather chat in the lead up to the 2019 festival. In early June it was cold and pissing down all over the country. With 2 weeks to go, it was raining heavily, and the forecasts generally predicted a wet remainder of June. Countryfile declared - "better get used to the rain, folks". Gloomy vibes on Glasto Chat. With a week to go, it was still raining a lot, but word started to emerge of a possible heatwave in festival week. By the Tuesday of the festival it had been completely firmed up -  all forecasts were of all-day sunshine. 

 

A week before 2016. People were still optimistic. 

[JoBalls]

4 minutes ago, GregsyA said:

I just had a look back at the weather chat in the lead up to the 2019 festival. In early June it was cold and pissing down all over the country. With 2 weeks to go, it was raining heavily, and the forecasts generally predicted a wet remainder of June. Countryfile declared - "better get used to the rain, folks". Gloomy vibes on Glasto Chat. With a week to go, it was still raining a lot, but word started to emerge of a possible heatwave in festival week. By the Tuesday of the festival it had been completely firmed up -  all forecasts were of all-day sunshine. 

All of this simply tells me what I already knew, that none of this means anything until about a week before. But I'll be on here every day, pouring obsessively over every new prediction, all the same.

Yes! I remember having bought tights to keep my legs warm and a new raincoat, and having my wellies ready to stay on my feet for the entire week, and then having to do a panic shop for some trainers and extra suncream. 
 

It’s still all to play for. And I’ll still be packing for all weathers regardless 😂

[jimmillen]

20 minutes ago, The Nal said:

 

A week before 2016. People were still optimistic. 

ISTR I was one of them. Not even daring to look, don't want to bring back those memories... 😂

[deebeedoobee]

Thing is, today the BBC were saying it would be showery across us. But we have had bright blue skies and warm sunshine. Not sure about the rest of Somerset, but Pilton’s force shield was working wonders today. 
 

in short, ignore the scientists they know nothing.

[GregsyA]

2 hours ago, The Nal said:

 

A week before 2016. People were still optimistic. 

And then there's also that...

[Jay Pee]

4 hours ago, The Nal said:

Only 29 days to go and a lot of rain forecast in the build up. Really worrying pattern emerging. 

The downvote on this mustn't realise that if Nal starts getting excited about the weather prospects its basically Armageddon.

[Euphoricape]

Accuweather changed today, now forecasting pretty much perfect conditions!

[nikkic]

13 hours ago, deebeedoobee said:

Thing is, today the BBC were saying it would be showery across us. But we have had bright blue skies and warm sunshine. Not sure about the rest of Somerset, but Pilton’s force shield was working wonders today. 
 

in short, ignore the scientists they know nothing.

The only weather report I need

If @deebeedoobeeis happy, I’m happy. 

[Reckoner]

13 hours ago, deebeedoobee said:

but Pilton’s force shield was working wonders today. 

This is what everyone is forgetting. All the farm infrastructure upgrades they talk about surely meant this. It worked so well in 2019, and it will do the job again this year. 

[kalifire]

1 hour ago, Euphoricape said:

Accuweather changed today, now forecasting pretty much perfect conditions!

STICK!!

[gooner1990]

16 hours ago, JoBalls said:

This reads to me like the build up is going to be dry and warm in the South West, which is good news. The thing that caused the problem in 2016 was that the ground was completely saturated before the festival had even begun, we had no hope whatsoever. 

If the ground is dry it would be able to soak up the 5.5mm of rain that’s currently forecast during the festival easily.

Very true, I seem to remember being very prepared for a bad weather one in 2019 and then the forecast changing quite close to the festival.

Before my time of going, but that was exactly what happened in 1997 as well.

And with regards to 2019, I was working that year and was in a crew bar in Shangri-La when the heavens opened at about 11.30pm and I had to race back to my tent in just trainers! Luckily that was the last I saw of any rain that weekend. 🙂 

[JoeyT]

I can't wait for 2 weeks time when the GFS charts start showing the festival week.

The absolute rollercoaster of this thread is utterly brilliant and it's easily my favourite thread of the build up every festival.

[gigpusher]

Anyone else secretly pleased that we are having rainy spells at the moment because it feels like we'll then be owed some sun come the end of June. I always find it worse if we have endless good weather. It's a bit grey, miserable and raining this morning and it just feels like a tax I am paying to the weather gods. 

[JoBalls]

2 hours ago, Euphoricape said:

Accuweather changed today, now forecasting pretty much perfect conditions!

This is actually perfect, which worries me as the chances of them being right this far out are not good…