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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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Just now, Suprefan said:

Ill take that weather but add one small spell of rain in there to keep it honest. At least it wont be hot, thats my bigger worry.

Someone who goes to Coachella is worried about a bit of mild English sun?

Never ask for rain. 

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1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

Someone who goes to Coachella is worried about a bit of mild English sun?

Never ask for rain. 

This.  A million times this.

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30 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Someone who goes to Coachella is worried about a bit of mild English sun?

Never ask for rain. 

I dont need to be in the same weather in a place thats not supposed to have it. You would feel the same after 6 days of 35 degrees. It rained twice when I went in 2017 so thats what I call balance amongst the clouds and spots of sun and nice weather overall. Also, one place actually provides shade and AC while the other does not.

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1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

I can't wait for 2 weeks time when the GFS charts start showing the festival week.

The absolute rollercoaster of this thread is utterly brilliant and it's easily my favourite thread of the build up every festival.

I always promise myself I won't get obsessed by them. And then...

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2 hours ago, gigpusher said:

Anyone else secretly pleased that we are having rainy spells at the moment because it feels like we'll then be owed some sun come the end of June. I always find it worse if we have endless good weather. It's a bit grey, miserable and raining this morning and it just feels like a tax I am paying to the weather gods. 

No but for the first time in my life I’ve found myself saying that the rain will be good for the garden … 

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8 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

These are the true measures of finally becoming slightly more adult like!!

No Adulting is building a whole watering system from a water source with a timer so you never have to worry (normally) about rain and hope for non stop sunshine (just received a couple extra lengths of tubing to make it all Glasto heatwave weather proof.

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9 minutes ago, moogster said:

No Adulting is building a whole watering system from a water source with a timer so you never have to worry (normally) about rain and hope for non stop sunshine (just received a couple extra lengths of tubing to make it all Glasto heatwave weather proof.

I said slightly more adult like not full blown proper responsible adult!!!

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Just now, gigpusher said:

I said slightly more adult like not full blown proper responsible adult!!!

I'm touched. It's the first time someone ever called me that 🙂 

So watch out people, Glasto before Garden otherwise you'll be a full blown proper responsible adult like me!

Weather wise I was reading an article saying that June was the new July (in Northern Europe). I am wondering what this means in terms of Pilton weather...

 

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I know in my head that any meteorologist will tell you "forecasting the weather beyond around 3-5 days is almost impossible and purely guesswork..."

But I'm totally hooked on this thread and checking long range forecasts online... And secretly I love it. Is this what Glastonbury does to you? Relieves you of every ounce of common sense you may, previously, have held onto? 

When I checked today, Metoffice and BBC both updated, since my last visit, to favourable conditions just before the festival. 🤞

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Until 10 days out, I’ll just be keeping up to date with @deebeedoobee. Or @The Nal if I start to get over optimistic. From then, I’ll start to take a keener interest in what the scientists say. Here’s an extract from a science journal......

The ability to throw more computer processing power at forecast models has substantially improved the ability of meteorologists to predict the weather. A recent analysis found that a modern five-day forecast is as accurate as three-day forecast was in 1995. In the last three decades, thanks largely to numerical weather prediction, the useful window of forecasting has moved out from about 7 days to 10 days.

Yet beyond 10 days, most meteorologists will say, there is little predictive skill. This is largely due to the "butterfly effect," in which only a very small change in initial conditions will have huge changes after about 10 days. However, in August of 2013, this basic mathematical principle didn't prevent AccuWeather from beginning to issue 45-day weather forecasts.

According to an analysis by the Capital Weather Gang, a widely respected site that forecasts conditions for around Washington DC, these 45-day forecasts showed no "skill" after about 10 days. "AccuWeather is a for-profit company and they have every right to pass off less-than-accurate forecasts as they wish, but the public deserves to know that these 45-day forecasts are not rooted in any science currently available to meteorologists and have not demonstrated value," the site concluded. "Caveat emptor."

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1 hour ago, a6l6e6x said:

So what you're saying is if we get all of the rain out of the way now we'll be set for a nice sunny one?

At least that's how I interpret the above

Yep. Make sacrifices now, for example- a bbq and it rains, not taking a coat when it looks like rain, that sort of thing. 

We can do this! 

 

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