The Weather Thread 2023

[PolygonWindow]

14 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Another doom laden prediction this time from the GEFS model run by the NCEP in the US.  This is rainfall for Cardiff (the closest location to Pilton they produce the charts for).  I’ve added thick black lines for the festival duration.  Too early for any detail, but what it does show is that it’s predicting June to get wetter as the month goes on, with the main computer run (the CONTROL run) predicting rain on most days during festival week.  This model updates every 24 hours so, as ever, more runs needed….

Everything trending towards rain 😞

[briddj]

1 hour ago, Jackomanaco said:

GFS models getting closer to festival time. That big blob of low makes me nervous.

This next week the trends will really start to ramp up

You could call it.

I don't know....

A....

KNIFE EDGE?

[kalifire]

Things look good for the build, at least. That's very important.

 

[Alvoram]

38 minutes ago, briddj said:

You could call it.

I don't know....

A....

KNIFE EDGE?

It's good to be back 😂😂

It'll be fine... Although I am buying a new mac in a sack and poncho for this year, just to please the weather gods of course. 

[Avalon_Fields]

I don’t know anything about these weather models, looking online it says:

The GFS has been better at reporting severe and extreme weather many times, but it also has not been a universally accurate source. GFS is trying to get better.

Also to increase your confidence: both models also works with general accuracy of 95–96% for up to 12 hours, 85–95% for three days, and 65–80% for 10 days

…..So I’m assuming anything now is no better than 50% accurate? Think I’ll toss a coin.

[chazthehoon]

With how dry it’s been recently, my main concern is if we will be able to get our tent pegs into the ground. Going to be harder than concrete!

[Sheffield Steve]

2 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I don’t know anything about these weather models, looking online it says:

The GFS has been better at reporting severe and extreme weather many times, but it also has not been a universally accurate source. GFS is trying to get better.

Also to increase your confidence: both models also works with general accuracy of 95–96% for up to 12 hours, 85–95% for three days, and 65–80% for 10 days

…..So I’m assuming anything now is no better than 50% accurate? Think I’ll toss a coin.

I think at this range 50% is being overly generous to the GFS.  Some models are better than others, obviously.  The GFS isn’t particularly good at longe range… but that won’t stop us posting the charts as soon as they become available… 🤓

Edited June 3, 2023 by Sheffield Steve

[4AssedMonkey]

7 hours ago, Jackomanaco said:

GFS models getting closer to festival time. That big blob of low makes me nervous.

This next week the trends will really start to ramp up

Azores Finger will soon f**k that off!  Believe people.  BELIEVE!!!

[Lizzim]

For those out there that think the weather has peaked too early, well I'm old enough to remember a year where we had no rain of significance from Easter till September. And that was in the West of Scotland!

 

[Robjbrear]

I forgot how much I hated this thread. Getting PTSD from last year! 

[El Weirdo]

26 minutes ago, Lizzim said:

For those out there that think the weather has peaked too early, well I'm old enough to remember a year where we had no rain of significance from Easter till September. And that was in the West of Scotland!

 

Yeah, but is there ever really anything of any significance in the west of Scotland?

[gazzared]

4 minutes ago, El Weirdo said:

Yeah, but is there ever really anything of any significance in the west of Scotland?

The British open .... I've been to turnberry and troon during a heat wave ...fairways were all brown 

[Crazyfool01]

how long was that dry period around sept last year ? 

[Drinky]

It’s 2007 redux

[Lizzim]

37 minutes ago, El Weirdo said:

Yeah, but is there ever really anything of any significance in the west of Scotland?

Rain😉

[El Weirdo]

18 minutes ago, Lizzim said:

Rain😉

Pretty much like the west of Ireland so.

[PolygonWindow]

Models now indicating a plume (all the rain from South Europe) starting next Friday.. 

Weatherheads - I’m guessing we’d rather this  happen nxt wknd rather than  the wknd before Glasto/ the wknd of Glasto. Right? Hoping high pressure follows! 

[Field Commander Jefferson]

We're going to be fine

[Franky]

2010 All over again. 

[Glasto96]

You’d think people want it to rain by the way they are going on about it 🙄

[Clouds]

15 minutes ago, Glasto96 said:

You’d think people want it to rain by the way they are going on about it 🙄

We need it though, we need it. Gardens as dry as a bone

[sprocketrocket]

Don't give a f**k about your Garden. 

No f**king clouds

No f**king rain

No f**king compromise 

[sime]

7 hours ago, Clouds said:

We need it though, we need it. Gardens as dry as a bone

Agreed

[Sasperella2]

12 hours ago, Robjbrear said:

I forgot how much I hated this thread. Getting PTSD from last year! 

Don't blame the thread! Its the british weather thats the problem here 

[Fred Zepplin]

8 hours ago, Clouds said:

We need it though, we need it. Gardens as dry as a bone

The gardens can wait till July