The Weather Thread 2023

[squirrelarmy]

I’ll take MetCheck right now. Wednesday is looking cloudy but that’s fine for moving a lot of gear and putting up tents. 
 

Potentially a couple of showers the rest of the week in between decent temps and then a totalscorcher on Sunday. Hopefully by that point we’ll all be nicely acclimatised to the outdoor heat.  
 

Edited June 10, 2023 by squirrelarmy

[Superscally]

13 minutes ago, briddj said:

Very few people are being "a Nal". We're just looking each individual GFS run. And if you think that Saturday day, evening and overnight would be fun then you've got a different idea of fun!

Ah sh*t it. I f**king panic if @briddjpanics. Stop it.

[frostypaw]

45 minutes ago, briddj said:

Very few people are being "a Nal". We're just looking each individual GFS run. And if you think that Saturday day, evening and overnight would be fun then you've got a different idea of fun!

The ensembles confirm this is a wild outlier - the main GFS run has gone for a scenario of repeated deep lows over the area but almost all the others have gone for a situation of rising pressure and very little precipitation 

General prediction for a little bit of wet sometime around the 19th has started to be more certain but the rest is still all over the shop.

Thread needs it's "DO NOT PANIC!" warning.

Black line = main run Metcheck/etc use

Blue = operational GEFS run, even that's not the same

Red = ensemble average

Others = many runs of the model to see how likely the predicted outcome is

 

Let's see how those next few day's peaks manifest, bet it's a short shower or two.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Which could miss the site...

Although we used up 8 of our 9 lives last year.

[Superscally]

48 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Which could miss the site...

Although we used up 8 of our 9 lives last year.

...and Download is currently chewing through the 9th.

[CaledonianGonzo]

2022 was a victory precisely because the forecast was bad. We won a watch. I seem to recall that south Wales took it in the back of the neck instead.

 

[Alvoram]

2 hours ago, briddj said:

Very few people are being "a Nal". We're just looking each individual GFS run. And if you think that Saturday day, evening and overnight would be fun then you've got a different idea of fun!

They weren’t referring to you and those of us checking charts. More those that are posting as if a cm of rain an hour for one night is the end of the world. I’ve never found you to be dramatic about anything, more on the positive side usually. 👍

2 hours ago, briddj said:

All asleep? Speak for yourself!

Sorry, thought the worst of it (moderate rain) was 6am, just checked and realised 3am is very similar. Either way I guess it would still affect some at 6am. 
 

5am for me that morning, have a TBA to try and check out at 3am

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, Superscally said:

...and Download is currently chewing through the 9th.

Think of the Downloaders all dressed in black right now. There will plenty there cursing the sun. 

[Alvoram]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Think of the Downloaders all dressed in black right now. There will plenty there cursing the sun. 

Absolutely oppressive here today, hate to be at Donington today. Don't know if it's humidity, or the fact it's suddenly jumped by so many degrees today, but it genuinely feels more oppressive than when it was over 40C last year, and it's only 28!

Good news is we've been able to sit in our back gardens and listen to Metallica and BMTH... (Apologies for the source.) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12177829/Download-Festival-hit-barrage-complaints-locals-15-miles-away-kept-awake-heavy-metal.html

(And contrary to that daily fail report, not a single resident on 'Spotted West Hallam' that I saw was complaining about the noise, they were all happy and enjoying the novelty of sitting in their gardens listening to it, it finishes so early.) 

In fact this exchange by two local residents sums up the response I've seen and heard from my neighbours so far... 

Quote

 

Miriam Barber, 35, posted on Spotted: Kirk Hallam Facebook page, said: "Is it Download you can hear around Kirk Hallam this evening, or is it someone living out their rock and roll dreams on the back garden?"

One reply agreed, saying: "It's amazing, could actually hear Metallica singing."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-65854271?at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_link_id=94A18F4A-06A9-11EE-8D4F-AD553AE5AB7B&at_link_origin=BBC_East_Midlands&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_medium=social&at_format=link&at_campaign_type=owned&at_link_type=web_link&at_ptr_name=facebook_page&fbclid=IwAR3IObrFN7H-iRji7uqWSwfi-egFr08AVScyM3JLpz4dWa2bQ_InwU7B-GU_aem_th_AZRQY_KFJhLFJfaugofjs1OLLs7KWQkd30ORV2GzSFzCfRHvguBBVylAQvFHdJdrFAM

Dunno why I went so off topic there... sorry 

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

but it genuinely feels more oppressive than when it was over 40C last year, and it's only 28!

I’ve been sat in partial shade in my back garden for a couple of hours and got sunburn. Luckily my fridge is metres away so have a steady supply of cold ones.

Being out in this with no shade and limited access to cold drinks would be a struggle. I don’t think we can take our paddling pools to the festival to keep our feet chilled. 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 hours ago, briddj said:

Very few people are being "a Nal". We're just looking each individual GFS run. And if you think that Saturday day, evening and overnight would be fun then you've got a different idea of fun!

The one saying it's cancel territory was and has done before.

[Ayrshire Chris]

 Very humid and warm sitting here in a north Ayrshire beer garden. Seems there’s a few thunderstorms in the vicinity but I hear nothing. It’s all hit and miss with these storms,trust in the Pilton force field. 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

The wind has stopped in Kent… and I think my dog has melted 🥵 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Beautiful day in Edinburgh. Would bite your hand off for more of the same in a fortnight's time.

[Punksnotdead]

Almighty thunderstorm here in Cheltenham at the moment!

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

First spots of light rain in Somerset for the first time in 2 or 3 weeks right now. Very much needed but not enough to even remotely affect the flowers in my garden, let alone the festival site. Been pretty humid today. Typical June unsettled weather, an absolute nightmare to forecast

[DYRTFT]

Latest GFS is middling depending on who you are!

Light rain on and off Wed to Fri. Chance of a bit of heavier stuff on the Thu, nothing catastrophic though.

Saturday and Sunday pretty much dry throughout. Max temps around 18 - 20.

 

(TOO EARLY)

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

First spots of light rain in Somerset for the first time in 2 or 3 weeks right now. Very much needed but not enough to even remotely affect the flowers in my garden, let alone the festival site. Been pretty humid today. Typical June unsettled weather, an absolute nightmare to forecast

I’ve not watered the plants today but in terms of significance it’s been so little it’s not really noticeable 

[stopwn1981]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The one saying it's cancel territory was and has done before.

I can 100% guarantee it won’t get cancelled. Unless the 12z GFS comes to pass 

[Sheffield Steve]

Once again the 12z GFS has served us up something nasty.  Rain moves in from Tuesday and then continues on and off until the Saturday.     But then, and very kind of it too, gives us a dry Sunday. 
This doesn’t tie in with the other models just yet, but will be interesting to see if they fall in line as they come in range of the festival over the next few days…

[dg.bandol]

58 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

 Very humid and warm sitting here in a north Ayrshire beer garden. Seems there’s a few thunderstorms in the vicinity but I hear nothing. It’s all hit and miss with these storms,trust in the Pilton force field. 

On and off rain here in Glasgow for the last couple of hours- would happily have it pissing down up here for the next couple of weeks so long as it takes all the low pressure away from the South Wesy over Glasto week!

[Hulkes_Hogan]

I’m so obsessed with this thread/weather models I’m now telling friends that have come over to our house for drinks. Even trying explain the different models and ensembles!  

 

[gazzared]

Weather channel still going with they're safe 40% chance of rain....I had similar forecast in April when I went camping and it never rained at all 🤣

[WestCountryGirl]

2 hours ago went for a lovely walk in baking heat. 1 hour ago walked home in a thundery rain shower. Stood outside in the yard for a bit getting soaked through and listening to Lizzo and can confirm it was still a good time. (Helped that I knew I could step inside and get changed at a moment's notice, but still.)

[gazzared]

Garden needs it 🤣