The Weather Thread 2023

[briddj]

Ok, time for the first full breakdown running into the festival!

A biblical set of charts for Tuesday night ahead of gates opening.

Rain around through the day on Wednesday, though not the worst.

However, low pressure remains over the UK with max temps of just 16

 

Small amounts of rain around again through Thursday. Highs of 18.

 

 

We go into the main part of the festival itself now.

Temperatures have improved up to 20 and high pressure begins to return to the UK.

There is a small amount of rain around on Friday afternoon, and overnight into Saturday.

Into the weekend now, very small amount of rain around on Saturday morning but that clears by midday. Highs of 18

 

Sunday also has a small amount of rain around - but warming up considerably with highs of 23.

SUMMARY

The rain on Tuesday could cause some issues for arrival morning, while temperatures aren't close to what we've seen before and the warm-up is delayed until Sunday.

But it's TOO EARLY.

 

[Henrik]

Twist! 

[PolygonWindow]

6 minutes ago, DYRTFT said:

 

Latest GFS run(12Z):

Wed: Light rain on and off most of the day with chance of a bit of heavier stuff, clearing a bit later in the evening. Max temp 17

Thu: That theme continues into Thursday with light rain on and off all day, clearing in evening. Max temp 18 (almost identical to Wednesday)

Fri: Mostly dry with chance of light rain in afternoon but clearing in evening. Max temp 19

Sat: Light rain in the morning but that clears and remains dry the rest of the day. Max temp 20

Sun: Dry in the morning, light rain in afternoon. Max temp 23

 

 

(Getting closer but still TOO EARLY)

Tuesday is horrendous on that run too. Very heavy rain.

 

I've noticed that in the Netweather forum they are really questioning the integrity of the GFS when it comes to low pressure coming in resulting in 'breakdowns'. Apparently it has a consistent track record of exhibiting the worst possible scenario. ECMWF more reliable at this point.

Edited June 11, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[Sheffield Steve]

Those of a nervous disposition look away now.  Just when the GFS was swinging our way, it delivers an absolute soaking.  If this comes off, we’ll all be setting up and taking down our tents with our wellies on…. It doesn’t bring the high pressure in quite as it did in the earlier run.   It’s a shocker…

Edited June 11, 2023 by Sheffield Steve

[WelshWonderer]

Woof. I’ll twist.

[briddj]

5 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Those of a nervous disposition look away now.  Just when the GFS was swinging our way, it delivers an absolute soaking.  If this comes off, we’ll all be setting up and taking down our tents with our wellies on…. It doesn’t bring the high pressure in quite as it did in the earlier run.   It’s a shocker…

I certainly wouldn't call it a shocker. We've seen a lot worse!

[DYRTFT]

6 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

Tuesday is horrendous on that run too. Very heavy rain.

 

I've noticed that in the Netweather forum they are really questioning the integrity of the GFS when it comes to low pressure coming in resulting in 'breakdowns'. Apparently it has a consistent track record of exhibiting the worst possible scenario. ECMWF more reliable at this point.

Yep. We’re just going off of one wildly changeable and possibly wildly incorrect model at the moment. For those genuinely panicking, please don’t. My prediction is some changeable weather with some showers but plenty of sun. 

[Euphoricape]

It will change multiple times yet. Fingers crossed for a more positive run overnight.

[Crazyfool01]

itll be fine 🙂 chill have a drink and enjoy your sunday eve 🙂 

[tigger123]

7 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Those of a nervous disposition look away now.  Just when the GFS was swinging our way, it delivers an absolute soaking.  If this comes off, we’ll all be setting up and taking down our tents with our wellies on…. It doesn’t bring the high pressure in quite as it did in the earlier run.   It’s a shocker…

Your hysteria is a bit OTT

[stopwn1981]

Truly awful times for sure 

[stopwn1981]

Gav dropping an update shortly - put your tin hats on

[Ayrshire Chris]

5 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

itll be fine 🙂 chill have a drink and enjoy your sunday eve 🙂 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Gav dropping an update shortly - put your tin hats on

nah ill save that for the farm 

[Losing my hair]

17 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Those of a nervous disposition look away now.  Just when the GFS was swinging our way, it delivers an absolute soaking.  If this comes off, we’ll all be setting up and taking down our tents with our wellies on…. It doesn’t bring the high pressure in quite as it did in the earlier run.   It’s a shocker…

Is Noah headlining?

[CaledonianGonzo]

Let's twist again..... like we did last summer.

[catavento]

Anybody know if the weather forecast apps and sites are generally using the GFS stuff or does it vary from place to place? Just wondering if there's much use in me looking at a number of things that are all presenting visualisations of the exact same data!

Also there's a risk of being drawn into thinking "these three sites all say it's going to be great/awful" when in fact that's because it's the same forecast on each.

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Yeh I'm not having that, highs of 16! No way. That isn't right. Not happening. The warm weather is going to continue I know it! 

[stopwn1981]

 

[gazzared]

30 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Those of a nervous disposition look away now.  Just when the GFS was swinging our way, it delivers an absolute soaking.  If this comes off, we’ll all be setting up and taking down our tents with our wellies on…. It doesn’t bring the high pressure in quite as it did in the earlier run.   It’s a shocker…

No Snow though 👏👏👏

[frostypaw]

8 minutes ago, catavento said:

Anybody know if the weather forecast apps and sites are generally using the GFS stuff or does it vary from place to place? Just wondering if there's much use in me looking at a number of things that are all presenting visualisations of the exact same data!

Also there's a risk of being drawn into thinking "these three sites all say it's going to be great/awful" when in fact that's because it's the same forecast on each.

It varies quite a lot. None of them are any real use this far out except in exceptional circumstances and we're not in exceptional circumstances.

Honestly wouldn't bother at this point unless you actively enjoy the rollercoaster. Prepare for both as usual, check tuesday/wednesday before you leave just to double check.

[CaledonianGonzo]

Villainous GFS deciding to strike whilst everyone is at their lowest with the Sunday scaries.

[stopwn1981]

Cool and wet trend

[2019]

Icon7 having a 'mare for Tuesday 13th. 3" of rain. I think this is model error.

[Duggyfresh44]

Put my tent up and waterproofed it earlier. It’s now hammering it down in Worcs. Good way to test it I guess…..