The Weather Thread 2023

[Sheffield Steve]

10 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

I know.... I'm considering temporarily ignoring him until gates open 😛

Oi ! 😇

[CaledonianGonzo]

f**ksticks

[sprocketrocket]

kEePs ThE DuSt DoWn

[CaledonianGonzo]

 

[2019]

Waiting till tomorrow for icon13, but I can't see any rain between now and the 21st.

Ecmwf showing significantly less wind for the start of the festival than gsf/gsf+, possibly suggesting that they think the low pressure will have moved north allowing the central high to dominate.

 

 

[Leyrulion]

9 hours ago, Sasperella2 said:

No wellies??? We are clearly not looking at the same efest thread... I'm in a puddle of woe (my own fault for lookint+g) 

Yeah, there's rain forecast but nothing that's going to turn the whole site into a lake of knee high mud. 

I've never seen a muddy one so not quite sure what it'd take to turn it into one any experts known if the rain forecast would mean wellies required?

[PolygonWindow]

[Ell99]

BBC looking grim

[Neville Street]

3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Yeah, there's rain forecast but nothing that's going to turn the whole site into a lake of knee high mud. 

I've never seen a muddy one so not quite sure what it'd take to turn it into one any experts known if the rain forecast would mean wellies required?

I won't be bringing wellies, just walking boots and other footwear. Hoping to spend a fair amount of time in sandals and a hat 🙂

It's amazing how quickly a relatively small amount of rain can turn the high traffic areas into a slippery and quite deep load of mess, and also how quickly the same can turn into rock hard mud again when the rain stops, especially if the sun comes out. The busy junctions and toilet areas will get churned up if there is some rain, but will dry out quickly as well.

 

[stopwn1981]

ITS OVER

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

any experts known if the rain forecast would mean wellies required?

I’m taking them but doubt I’d be needing them. 
 

For deep mud to be a problem you would need a fairly high ground water level. All the reports from those on the ground are indicating the opposite. 
 

Any rain that does fall during the festival will either run off the hard surface or evaporate quickly in the sun. 
 

Some of the paths may end up with a bit of the brown stuff but it won’t be deep enough to suck a wellie off. 

[PolygonWindow]

Every f**kin year this happens why can’t it just be nice and settled and in the bag so we can relax!

[Suprefan]

9 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Yeah, there's rain forecast but nothing that's going to turn the whole site into a lake of knee high mud. 

I've never seen a muddy one so not quite sure what it'd take to turn it into one any experts known if the rain forecast would mean wellies required?

It would have to downpour all day during the fest for it to get into the bad stuff. If it held up on that last run forecast youre probably going to see spots of mud but not some wellie destroying stuff. Would recommend them being packed or some solid hiking boots. Def get a really good camping grade blanket/tarp to sit on the ground though cause of the moisture.

[Aragorn]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

So, the 18Z was an improvement. What will the 00Z serve up for us?

There is still heavy rain before gates open, but this has now pulled back to overnight into Tuesday, rather than into Wednesday. The rain pushes north. Tuesday itself is mainly dry.

There is some rain around when the gates open on Wednesday, which could be heavy in the morning, and then light during the day before clearing in the evening.  15 degrees at gates open, and getting no higher than 16.

The high pressure is struggling to build in again in this run, which shows a downgrade on the 18Z.

Thursday is again showing some rain around, highs of 19.

Friday again shows high pressure struggling to make an impact, some very light showers around. Highs of 20.

On Saturday, high pressure tries to force its way in, but there's a low looming large in the Atlantic. Some light showers, back down to highs of 17.

And finally on Sunday, after some overnight showers, we finally have a dry day! Highs of 21.

SUMMARY

Unfortunately we have failed to build on the 18Z, and there remains a huge KNIFE EDGE over whether that breakdown will happen involving the low in the Atlantic. Rain around for the first 4 days - though nothing heavy really, and temperatures not great.

But it's TOO EARLY.

 

The operational run showing in the charts above was somewhat of an outlier in terms of Air Pressure looking at the ensembles for around the 23rd

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Aragorn

[Thunderstruck]

Still no real ensemble agreement yet. It does look like the Atlantic trough will move towards us start of next week, probably bringing significant outbreaks of thunderstorms. After that it's really unclear.

[Leyrulion]

16 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

It would have to downpour all day during the fest for it to get into the bad stuff. If it held up on that last run forecast youre probably going to see spots of mud but not some wellie destroying stuff. Would recommend them being packed or some solid hiking boots. Def get a really good camping grade blanket/tarp to sit on the ground though cause of the moisture.

This is all I need to hear until Friday now! 

I splashed out on the base for my camping chair so hopefully it won't sink into the mud if it is wet.

[NotAnInsider]

We've had models suggest lows coming in from the east over the medium term a few times in recent weeks only for them to get squashed out further west closer to the time. It wouldn't be a shock for that to happen again and the suggested breakdown over the start of next week to fail to come to fruition. Or it may all go totally to sh*t for real this time.

It'll be interesting to see what the Met Office long range is saying when it updates later this afternoon. Those are written properly based of multiple models. So far they've been pretty well stuck to the dry and fine conditions train - their deep dive and 10 day trend vids will be on YouTube Tuesday/Wed and will likely touch on Glastonbury.

[GetGorgeForGlasto]

53 minutes ago, Neville Street said:

I won't be bringing wellies, just walking boots and other footwear. Hoping to spend a fair amount of time in sandals and a hat 🙂

It's amazing how quickly a relatively small amount of rain can turn the high traffic areas into a slippery and quite deep load of mess, and also how quickly the same can turn into rock hard mud again when the rain stops, especially if the sun comes out. The busy junctions and toilet areas will get churned up if there is some rain, but will dry out quickly as well.

 

Churned up you say?

[The Nal]

YR in range now. 

Turning into a shitshow

[gazzared]

Early Monday arrivals taking one for the team and dry for Elton 🤣

 

[AdrianH]

Looks like a warm festival with potential for showers judging by current output. Depends how close the trough in the Atlantic gets - if it stays further west then we could end up with hot air being dragged up from Spain which I'm not overly keen on either! Ideal conditions for me would be low 20s sun/cloud.

[09matthewsw]

Knife. Edge.

[chazwwe]

I didn't wear wellies in 2016 and I won't this year.

[squirrelarmy]

11 minutes ago, The Nal said:

YR in range now. 

Turning into a shitshow

Come on you can do better than that. If you want to scare people show them MetCheck 

[DYRTFT]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Come on you can do better than that. If you want to scare people show them MetCheck 

Is 1mm of rain over the course of a day meant to be scary? 🤔