The Weather Thread 2023

[gfa]

TLDR please?

[ICGenie]

2 hours ago, dingbat2 said:

l the oracle that is the Countryfile forecast is shown this Sunday...

 

Am I the only one to get a fizzy tummy at the thought that THE Countryfile forecast is THIS SUNDAY?!!!

[ICGenie]

1 minute ago, gfa said:

TLDR please?

[sauceageroll]

Going to bed happier than I have been about the weather at any stage in the last fortnight. Tomorrow will be of course back to despair.

[Sheffield Steve]

Two of the major models are now out to midday on the Thursday.  The European ECMWF and the Canadian GEM. 

They both have showers around over the Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing substantial and nothing like the GFS was predicting yesterday. We’re not quite out of the woods yet, but looking promising.

[DYRTFT]

2 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Two of the major models are now out to midday on the Thursday.  The European ECMWF and the Canadian GEM. 

They both have showers around over the Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing substantial and nothing like the GFS was predicting yesterday. We’re not quite out of the woods yet, but looking promising.

Steve you big softy.

[briddj]

29 minutes ago, ICGenie said:

Am I the only one to get a fizzy tummy at the thought that THE Countryfile forecast is THIS SUNDAY?!!!

For the first time this year, it's time to debunk the Countryfile forecast. 

It's available on the BBC website as weather for the week ahead on Sunday morning, by the time it's shown on Countryfile it's 10 hours out of date, and it doesn't cover the festival weekend itself.

[Aragorn]

3 hours ago, briddj said:

We are still left hoping for a fingering to clear up the weekend. What will the 12Z bring?

GATES OPEN

Only a very small amount of rain around on the Monday now, dry on Tuesday and for gates open on Wednesday AM. The site will be bone dry based on this. Stays dry all day with highs of 19-20.

 

Totally different appearance for the low pressure in this run (right), however, compared to the 0Z (left). Where will we go?

THURSDAY

There's no doubt here the high is winning, pushing the low pressure out west. Very, very small possibility of early evening rain. Highs of 22.

FRIDAY

Again effectively a dry day, with completely insignificant rainfall - would be burned away by the temperatures of 23.

SATURDAY

High pressure build yet further, leading to an increase in max temperatures to 24. Completely dry.

This is the different in the position of the high pressure in the last two runs. Latest on the right.

SUNDAY

A FINGERING! More high pressure! No rain! Max temps of 24!

 

SUMMARY

The best run we've had for a long time, with hardly any rain and very good temperatures.

This is pretty much perfect (though a few would drop weekend temps a bit). But remember, it's still TOO EARLY.

Unfortunately the operational run was pretty much on its own showing the best of all runs.  However, a significant number of runs also show high pressure somewhere near 1020hpa. 

Most runs are now converging on low pressure being present on the 21st before pressure starts to rise. At least on the 12z ensembles for Somerset 

 

[PolygonWindow]

15 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Two of the major models are now out to midday on the Thursday.  The European ECMWF and the Canadian GEM. 

They both have showers around over the Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing substantial and nothing like the GFS was predicting yesterday. We’re not quite out of the woods yet, but looking promising.

Starting to think/ hope maybe ECM weeklies showing above average rainfall is rainfall mainly accumulated on the Mon/Tue.

[PolygonWindow]

All eyes on the GFS.

If this is decent could be a little trend starting.

[briddj]

18 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

All eyes on the GFS.

If this is decent could be a little trend starting.

We know what's going to happen. 😄

[Glasto96]

😎

[Ayrshire Chris]

Proof that the forecasts are all over the place, this one will do me!

[Sheffield Steve]

These are the ECMWF rainfall ensembles for the nearest location, Cardiff, from midday today.  Despite the Control run being mostly dry from 21st to 25th, there are plenty of spikes there, including one torrential downpour on 22nd.    Still plenty of wet options on the table…
 

[briddj]

A whizz through the 18Z then, will we get back-to-back good runs?

GATES OPEN

There is rain around on Sunday and Monday, but doesn't look to be anything that would cause any damage.

It's then dry all of Tuesday, though to gates opening on Wednesday morning. Max temps of 22 on Wednesday.

At this stage, comparing to the last run (left) the high pressure is weaker now (right).

Wednesday has some rain around in the evening, and then the threat of a heavy downpour in the early hours.

THURSDAY

The heavy rain clears on Thursday morning, though there are still light showers possible. Highs of 20 create good drying conditions.

FRIDAY

Into the main festival days, and finally the high starts to build in - and Friday is a dry day with highs of 19.

You can see that while the high is building in this run (right), it's not as strong as the last run.

SATURDAY

Finally the high is building in. Another dry day with highs of 20.

SUNDAY

The high continues to build is as the delayed finger continues its progress. It's another bone dry day with temperatures of 21.

SUMMARY

Not a bad run in general, but not as good as the previous one. The rain overnight from Wednesday into Thursday morning has the possibility of causing some issues, but it would dry up quickly with these temperatures and no further rain throughout the main festival days.

Clearly we are getting increasing agreement of a fingering - it's just how and when it develops.

Let's hope for that rain to disappear again in the next run.

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by briddj

[DYRTFT]

Latest GFS looking DECENT. I’ll let one of the scientists unpick it.

[stuartbert two hats]

9 minutes ago, briddj said:

A whizz through the 18Z then, will we get back-to-back good runs?

GATES OPEN

There is rain around on Sunday and Monday, but doesn't look to be anything that would cause any damage.

It's then dry all of Tuesday, though to gates opening on Wednesday morning. Max temps of 22 on Wednesday.

At this stage, comparing to the last run (left) the high pressure is weaker now (right).

Wednesday has some rain around in the evening, and then the threat of a heavy downpour in the early hours.

THURSDAY

The heavy rain clears on Thursday morning, though there are still light showers possible. Highs of 20 create good drying conditions.

FRIDAY

Into the main festival days, and finally the high starts to build in - and Friday is a dry day with highs of 19.

You can see that while the high is building in this run (right), it's not as strong as the last run.

SATURDAY

Finally the high is building in. Another dry day with highs of 20.

SUNDAY

The high continues to build is as the delayed finger continues its progress. It's another bone dry day with temperatures of 21.

SUMMARY

Not a bad run in general, but not as good as the previous one. The rain overnight from Wednesday into Thursday morning has the possibility of causing some issues, but it would dry up quickly with these temperatures and no further rain throughout the main festival days.

Clearly we are getting increasing agreement of a fingering - it's just how and when it develops.

Let's hope for that rain to disappear again in the next run.

 

These dry days with lowish temperatures never seem to happen at Glastonbury. You get wet+cold (2007) or showery and coolish (2008), but if it's dry all day, it always ends up being roasting.

You know what, it's not a knife edge this year, it's definitely going to be fine.

/Thread 

[HyperTechnoHorse]

Precipitation shills, "keep the dust down" copers, and sub-20C apologists can get to f***.

If it rains, the festival is toast. No one ever actually has 'fun' when it's pissing it down for days on end. 

[sime]

4 hours ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

Precipitation shills, "keep the dust down" copers, and sub-20C apologists can get to f***.

If it rains, the festival is toast. No one ever actually has 'fun' when it's pissing it down for days on end. 

I don't think anyone wanting a bit of light rain to "keep the dust down", myself included, wants anything more than that. Personally, I like a bit of light, overnight/early morning rain. I've been to so many Glastonbury's now and experienced pretty much every type of weather except snow. Some rain does not make the festival "toast". A lot of rain? Sure. That would not be good. But some rain is weather that can be coped with. I do want a dry festival but am prepared for a rainy one too. 

[Jackomanaco]

I think one thing we can say is we are in a much better position than we were a few days ago. I think there will be rain but it definitely won't be a washout or a mud bath.

[squirrelarmy]

It’s definitely trending more 2022 than 2011. 
 

Hopefully it won’t be windy as the grounds too hard to get tent pegs in. 

[Suprefan]

[Sheffield Steve]

This mornings GFS is a downgrade from yesterdays run. Yesterday the high pressure pushed down from the north to give us a fine weekend but this morning keeps it further north as it’s bumped out of the way by a thundery low coming up from France for Sunday…

So the first few days have showers, Saturday dryish, then the threat of thunder on Sunday. 
It’s still all over the place every day, so no detail can be inferred from any of the GFS runs.  The other models are also struggling for consistency so it’s still TOO EARLY. 
 

[rlandy95]

Lot of folks on the Netweather forums saying rain looks likely now 🙃

[Clouds]

46 minutes ago, sime said:

I don't think anyone wanting a bit of light rain to "keep the dust down", myself included, wants anything more than that. Personally, I like a bit of light, overnight/early morning rain. I've been to so many Glastonbury's now and experienced pretty much every type of weather except snow. Some rain does not make the festival "toast". A lot of rain? Sure. That would not be good. But some rain is weather that can be coped with. I do want a dry festival but am prepared for a rainy one too. 

2015 was perfect festival weather for me and there were spells of rain all weekend.  Wellies came out once but other than that the site held up really well and dried up 1-2 hours after.